Category: India & Singapore

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Singapore breakout and Indian buying pressure

BSE Sensex broke out of its trend channel last week, signaling the primary down-trend is weakening. A sharp rise in 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms buying pressure. Breakout above 18000 would indicate the start of a new up-trend, with an initial target of 20500*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15500 ) = 20500

Singapore Straits Times Index held onto its gains, closing the week above 2900. Expect a primary advance with a target of 3200*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

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India & Singapore retreat

India’s NIFTY index encountered resistance at 5200. Respect of the upper trend channel — and 63-day Twiggs Momentum respecting the zero line (from below) — would suggest a down-swing to test the lower trend channel.

NSE/S&P Nifty Index

The BSE Sensex also retreated from its upper trend channel but rising 13-week Twiggs Money indicates buying pressure. Follow-through above the recent high at 17250 would signal declining momentum — and that a base is forming.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index also retreated, but from resistance at 2900. Follow-through above the recent high would confirm the higher trough and the start of a primary up-trend. Target for the initial advance is 3200*. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 2600.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

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Singapore & Korea

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is establishing a base between 2600 and 2900. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns that the down-trend is weakening. Breakout above 2900 would signal a primary advance to 3200*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is headed for a test of resistance at 1920. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 2150*, but bearish divergence warns of medium-term selling pressure. It advisable to wait for retracement to respect the new support level, confirming the breakout.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1650 ) = 2150

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Australia and Asia

Australia’s ASX 200 index continues to range between 3850 and 4350. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects medium-term selling pressure, but the long-term rise reflects buying support. Failure of support at 4000 would suggest another test of 3850, but only breakout from the range will offer a clear long-term signal.

ASX 200 Index


China’s Shanghai Composite index respected resistance at 2300, suggesting a decline to 2000*. Deep negative values on 63-day Twiggs Momentum are evidence of a strong primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2300 – 2150 ) = 2000

India’s Nifty Index is headed for a test of the upper border of its downward trend channel at 5200. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero continues to indicate a strong primary down-trend.

S&P/NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5600 + ( 6600 – 5600 ) = 5100

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell sharply Monday to test short-term support at 8360. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Breakout below 8200 would warn of another primary decline, with a target of 7400*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9000 – 8200 ) = 7400

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Asia: Shanghai weakens but India displays support

China’s Shanghai Composite index has been edging lower since breaking support at 2400. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum, declining below zero, confirms a primary down-trend. Expect a test of the 2008 low at 1700 in the months ahead.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 – ( 3200 – 2400 ) = 1600

India’s Sensex Index broke support at 16000 but then retraced to test the new resistance level. An encouraging bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow shows buying pressure. Breakout above 16000 would indicate a rally to 18000. Respect of resistance, however, would confirm the down-swing to 14000*.


BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) = 14

Singapore’s Straits Times Index follows a similar course to India. Recovery above 2900 would signal a (primary trend) reversal.

Singapore Straits Times Index


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index faces similar resistance at 20000. Respect would indicate another test of 16000, while breakout would signal a reversal.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index


The weekly chart shows Japan’s Nikkei 225 index on a similar path to Shanghai — headed for a test of its 2008/9 lows. Failure of medium-term support at 8200 would strengthen the signal. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9 – ( 11 – 9 ) = 7

South Korea’s Seoul Composite index is testing resistance at 1920 but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 1800 would suggest another test of support at 1650. Upward breakout is unlikely but would indicate a (primary trend) reversal.

Seoul Composite Index

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Why India is Riskier than China – Stephen S. Roach – Project Syndicate

India is more problematic. As the only economy in Asia with a current-account deficit, its external funding problems can hardly be taken lightly. Like China, India’s economic-growth momentum is ebbing. But unlike China, the downshift is more pronounced – GDP growth fell through the 7% threshold in the third calendar-year quarter of 2011, and annual industrial output actually fell by 5.1% in October.

But the real problem is that, in contrast to China, Indian authorities have far less policy leeway. For starters, the rupee is in near free-fall. That means that the Reserve Bank of India – which has hiked its benchmark policy rate 13 times since the start of 2010 to deal with a still-serious inflation problem – can ill afford to ease monetary policy. Moreover, an outsize consolidated government budget deficit of around 9% of GDP limits India’s fiscal-policy discretion.

via Why India is Riskier than China – Stephen S. Roach – Project Syndicate.

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India NIFTY and Singapore Straits Times Index

India’s NIFTY index continues its primary down-trend, breaking support at 4700 on the weekly chart. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero confirms the down-trend. Target for the primary decline is 4000*.

NSE NIFTY Index

* Target calculation: 4700 – (5400 – 4700 ) = 4000

The Straits Times Index also shows 63-day Twiggs Momentum declining below zero, suggesting a primary down-trend. Respect of the descending trendline on the weekly chart strengthens the signal.  Breakout below primary support at 2500 would offer a target of 2100*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

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India holds

The SENSEX is testing primary support but has so far (Tuesday 12:30 p.m.) held above 15800. Breakout would signal a primary decline to 14000*. The peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure.

BSE SENSEX Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) = 14

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Japan & India

Dow Jones Japan Index is headed for a test of the descending trendline but 63-day Twiggs Momentum remains deep below zero, indicating a strong primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Japan Index

Dow Jones India 30 Titans index found support above 150 and is headed for another test of resistance around 170. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow favors a primary trend reversal. Breakout above 172 would confirm.

Dow Jones India 30 Titans Index

* Target calculation: 170 + ( 170 – 150 ) = 190

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India warns of primary decline, Singapore may follow

India’s SENSEX broke through support at 15800/16000, signaling a primary decline to 14000*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero confirms strong selling pressure. The index later recovered above 16000 Monday; we will have to wait to see whether the new support level holds.

BSE SENSEX Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) =14

The monthly chart shows Singapore’s Straits Times Index headed for a test of primary support at 2500. Long-term bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend. Failure of support would signal a primary decline to 2100*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

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