India: Sensex tests 20,000

India’s Sensex continues to test primary support at 20000. Recovery above 20500 would indicate another test of 21500. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Failure of support, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

India: Sensex finds support

India’s Sensex found support at 20000. Respect would indicate another test of the 2007 and 2010 high of 21000. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Failure of support is less likely, but would test the rising trendline (around 19000).

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

India: SENSEX resists

India’s Sensex displays strong resistance at its 2007 and 2010 high of 21000, with several failed attempts at a breakout. Reversal below 20500 would warn of another correction to the primary trendline. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure typical of a consolidation.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

Sensex resistance

India’s Sensex displays strong resistance at its 2007 and 2010 high of 21000, with several failed attempts at a breakout. Reversal below 20600 would warn of another test of primary support at 20000. The bullish ascending triangle, however, suggests an advance to 22000*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure typical of a consolidation.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

India ascending

India’s Sensex displays a bullish ascending triangle above long-term support at 20200. Breakout above resistance at 21200 would signal an advance to 22000*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure typical of a consolidation. Completion of a trough above zero would indicate long-term selling pressure.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

Japan bullish, but India & China reflect selling pressure

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is retracing to test its latest support level at 16000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow after a trough above zero indicates buying pressure. Respect of support would confirm a primary advance, with a long-term target of 17500*. A rising Dollar/Yen exchange rate would strengthen the signal. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite breached support at 2080, confirming the primary down-trend. Expect support at 1950: the low of December 2012 and respected in 2013. Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Recovery above 2080 is unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex encountered strong resistance at 21200 and declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect another test of support at 20200. Failure would warn of a primary down-trend. Breakout above 21200 is unlikely in the next few weeks, but would suggest a primary advance to 22000*.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 20000 ) = 22000

Bullish lead-in to the New Year

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1810, signaling an advance to 1910*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1810 + ( 1810 – 1710 ) = 1910

The FTSE 100 completed its correction with a break above the descending trendline. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Breakout above 6800 would offer a target of 7200*, but expect strong resistance at the 1999 high of 6950/7000.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200

The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke resistance at 3100, signaling an advance to 3350*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy up-trend. Retracement to test the new support level is likely; respect would strengthen the bull signal.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2850 ) = 3350

Germany’s DAX similarly broke resistance at 9400, offering a target of 10200*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9400 + ( 9400 – 8600 ) = 10200

India’s SENSEX is testing resistance at 21200 after a correction that respected support at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22200*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.

BSE Sensex

* Target calculation: 21200 + ( 21200 – 20200 ) = 22200

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 16000, supported by a strong rise in the Dollar/Yen exchange rate. Breakout signals a primary advance with a long-term target of 19000*. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero suggests buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000- 13000 ) = 19000

A single cloud on the horizon, the Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2080. Failure of support would signal a primary down-trend with an immediate target of 1900*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest support.

Shanghai Composite

* Target calculation: 2080 – ( 2260 – 2080 ) = 1900

The ASX 200 is lagging other markets because of negative influence from China. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 5450 would be cause for concern if followed by reversal below 5300. Breakout above 5450 and completion of a trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, would signal another primary advance, with a target of 5900*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5000 ) = 5900

Japan & India hesitate after breakout

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing its new support level around 15000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Respect of support would confirm a primary advance, with a long-term target of 17500*. But breach of the rising trendline is as likely, and would warn of a correction to the base of the formation at 12500/13000.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

India’s Sensex made a false break through resistance at 21200, warning of selling pressure. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow also indicates medium-term selling pressure. Retreat below support at 20200 would warn of a test of primary support at 18000. Recovery above 21200 is unlikely at present, but would confirm a primary advance to 24000*.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

Asia: China buying pressure but HK retreats

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is retracing to test its new support level around 15000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero indicates buying pressure. Respect of support would confirm a primary advance, with a long-term target of 17500*. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the base of the formation at 12500.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at 2250. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 2450. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero indicates buying pressure. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of trend weakness.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index retreated from resistance at 24000. Expect short-term support at 23500. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a correction. Breakout above 24000 is less likely, but would signal a primary advance to 24500, with a long-term target of 25500*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

India’s Sensex also warns of selling pressure, with a bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Respect of resistance at 21000/21200 would strengthen the warning. And reversal below 20200 would signal a correction. Breakout above 21200 is less likely, but would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

ASX correction despite Asian bulls

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is likely to retrace to test its new support level at 15000. Respect would negate the bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow and confirm the long-term target of 17500*. Reversal below the rising trendline, however, would warn of a correction to 13000.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite is consolidating between 2100 and 2250. Upward breakout would suggest a test of the descending trendline at 2450 on the monthly chart. Momentum remains weak and reversal below 2100 is as likely, which would test primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing this year’s high of 24000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 24000 is likely and would signal a primary advance to 24500, with a long-term target of 25500*. Reversal below 23500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 22500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of 21200 after respecting support at 20200. Breakout above its 2007/2010 highs at 21000 would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 20200 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

The ASX 200 is undergoing a correction after breaching the rising trendline and support at 5290/5300. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure, but a trough above zero would indicate a healthy (primary) up-trend. There are plenty of support levels evident on the chart, but I would expect strongest support around 4900 and the 2009/2011 highs of 5000.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 VIX index, below 15, continues to indicate low market risk.

ASX 200