Happiness, stress, and age: How the U-curve varies across people and places | Brookings Institution

From Carol Graham and Julia Ruiz at Brookings Institution:

…Numerous studies have found recurrent patterns between happiness and life satisfaction (while the terms are often used inter-changeably, the latter is a better-specified question) and important experiences such as employment, marital status, and/or earnings. These, in turn, lead to differences in investment profiles, productivity, voting incentives, and attitudes toward health (Graham, Eggers, and Sukhtankar, 2004; DeNeve and Oswald, 2012; De Neve et al., 2013).

Among these relationships, the one between age and happiness—often referred to as “the U-curve”—is particularly striking due to its consistency across individuals, countries, and cultures (Blanchflower and Oswald, 2007; Steptoe, Deaton and Stone, 2015; Graham and Pettinato, 2002). Happiness declines with age for about two decades from early adulthood up until roughly the middle-age years, and then turns upward and increases with age. Although the exact shape differs across countries, the bottom of the curve (or, the nadir of happiness) ranges from 40 to 60 plus years old. Blanchflower and Oswald (2016) find that some markers of ill-being, such as reported mental health and the use of anti-depressants, meanwhile, display inverse patterns, and turn down (as opposed to up) at roughly the same age range in the U.S. and Britain.

Further research is needed to confirm that the bottom of the U-curve coincides with teenage children 😉

Source: Happiness, stress, and age: How the U-curve varies across people and places | Brookings Institution

Asia steadies

China’s Shanghai Composite Index steadied and is again testing resistance at 3100. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rallied for another test of resistance at 17000. Breakout above 17000 would suggest a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 17600, completing a broad double-bottom, would confirm. Further consolidation, however, is more likely.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s BSE Sensex broke out of its narrow rectangle at 28000, signaling another advance. Expect a test of the 2015 high at 30000. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow now appears misleading.

SENSEX

Europe on the mend

Germany’s DAX is holding above its new support level at 10500. Respect, with follow-through above 10800, would confirm the primary up-trend.

DAX

* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500

France’s CAC-40 Index is consolidating in a narrow band between 4400 and 4500. Upward breakout would suggest a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 4600, completing a broad double bottom, would confirm. Rising Twiggs Money Flow reflects buying pressure.

CAC-40

The Footsie retreated from resistance at 7000 but short candles and strong Twiggs Money Flow, high above zero, suggest long-term buying pressure. Expect strong resistance between 7000 and 7100. Correction to 6500 would establish a more stable base for further advances.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 5900 ) = 7100

Gold steady as rates fall

Interest rates retreated this week, with 10-year Treasury yields falling below support at 1.60 percent.

10-year Treasury Yield

Falling interest rates reduce downward pressure on gold. Spot Gold steadied above support at $1300/ounce. Momentum above zero continues to indicate a primary up-trend. Respect of support at $1300 would confirm. Breach of support is unlikely but would signal trend weakness and a test of primary support at $1200/ounce.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1050 ) = 1550

Margaret Thatcher: Interventions

The habit of ubiquitous interventionism, combining pinprick strikes by precision weapons with pious invocations of high principle, would lead us into endless difficulties. Interventions must be limited in number and overwhelming in their impact.

Portugal: What Happened After It Decriminalized Drugs | VICE

By Samuel Oakford

…..16 years ago, Portugal took a leap and decriminalized the possession of all drugs — everything from marijuana to heroin. By most measures, the move has paid off.

The rate of new HIV infections in Portugal has fallen precipitously since 2001, the year its law took effect, declining from 1,016 cases to only 56 in 2012. Overdose deaths decreased from 80 the year that decriminalization was enacted to only 16 in 2012. In the US, by comparison, more than 14,000 people died in 2014 from prescription opioid overdoses alone. Portugal’s current drug-induced death rate, three per million residents, is more than five times lower than the European Union’s average of 17.3, according to EU figures.

Source: Portugal’s Example: What Happened After It Decriminalized All Drugs, From Weed to Heroin | VICE News

Europe strengthens

Germany’s DAX respected its new support at 10500. Follow-through above 10800 would confirm the primary up-trend.

DAX

* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500

Italy’s FTSE MIB (Milano Italia Borsa) Index remains in a primary down-trend. Breakout above 17000 and the descending trendline, however, would suggest that a base is forming. Rising Twiggs Money Flow highlights buying pressure.

FTSE MIB

The Footsie retreated from resistance at 7000 but short candles and rising Twiggs Money Flow suggest buying pressure. Expect another test of 7000/7100 but resistance is strong. Correction to 6500 would establish a more stable base for further advances.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 5900 ) = 7100

Asia pulls back

China’s Shanghai Composite Index retreated below resistance at 3100. Prospects of a primary up-trend have dimmed and further consolidation between 2800 and 3100 is likely.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is pretty directionless, retreating from resistance at 17000. Breach of 16000 would warn of another test of primary support at 15000. But a broad base between 15000 and 17000 is likely.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s BSE Sensex is the most promising, consolidating in a bullish narrow range around 28000. Upward breakout would signal a further advance towards the 2015 high of 30000. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure, however, and downward breakout would warn of a correction to 25000 or 26000.

SENSEX

Oil Industry Shifts From Survival to Growth | Bloomberg

There has been a spike in oil & gas mergers and takeovers in recent months as sellers expectations of a return to $100/barrel oil prices have finally faded.

From Bloomberg:

While crude has recovered, “there seems to be an increasing consensus that oil will not go back to over $100 any time soon,” said Philipp Chladek, a senior industry analyst for BI in London. “So the differing perceptions about the asset values that, next to the volatility, was the main deal-breaker in the past, are gradually converging.”

Light crude prices have rallied from early 2016 lows to test resistance above $50/barrel. December futures retreated from $52/barrel but this does not seem to indicate a reversal. Breakout above $52 would signal a long-term up-trend with a test of resistance around $64/barrel. With slow global growth, however, further consolidation below $52 is more likely.

WTI Light Crude - December 2016

From Tsvetana Paraskova at Oilprice.com:

Earlier this week, the Russian Economy Ministry said that it expected crude oil prices to remain stable at their current range of US$45-50 over the next two years, with a sustainable improvement beginning in late 2017.

The latest rally in prices, according to a statement by the ministry, has “a speculative nature” and will not last long. The Economy Ministry went on to add in the statement that oil fundamentals were moving in line with “basic forecasts”; that is, the market is on its way to rebalancing, with the glut gradually easing. But this process will take time.

Source: Oil Industry Shifts From Survival to Growth – Bloomberg

Gold, rising interest rates and the falling Yuan

Interest rates are rising. Upward breakout from an ascending triangle formation on 10-year Treasury yields indicates an up-trend.

10-year Treasury Yield

A rate hike from the Fed would increase pressure on the Chinese Yuan, leaving the PBOC with a dilemma. Either allow the Yuan to slide, which could panic investors and borrowers into a rout, or sell off more of its $3.2 trillion foreign exchange reserves to slow Dollar appreciation against the Yuan.

USDCNY

Long tails on USDCNY indicate buying at the 6.60 support level. Breakout above 6.70 would warn of another advance (decline for the Yuan).

Rising interest rates increase downward pressure on gold but a falling Yuan would boost demand as a store of value. Spot Gold is above the rising trendline on a weekly chart but expect a test of support at $1300/ounce. Momentum holding above zero continues to indicate a healthy primary up-trend. Respect of support at $1300 would confirm. Breach of support remains unlikely but would signal trend weakness and a test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1050 ) = 1550