New Bailouts Prove ‘Too Big to Fail’ Is Alive and Well | WSJ

By Neel Kashkari:

Three strikeouts in four at bats would be barely acceptable in baseball. For a policy designed to prevent taxpayer bailouts, it’s an undeniable defeat. In the past few weeks, four European bank failures have demonstrated that a signature feature of the postcrisis regulatory regime simply cannot protect the public. There’s no need for more evidence: “bail-in debt” doesn’t prevent bailouts. It’s time to admit this and move to a simpler solution that will work: more common equity.

Bail-in debt was envisioned as an elegant solution to the “too big to fail” problem. When a bank ran into trouble, regulators could trigger a conversion of debt to equity. Bondholders would take the losses. The firm would be recapitalized. Taxpayers would be spared……

The problem is that it rarely works this way in real life. On June 1, the Italian government and European Union agreed to bail out Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena with a €6.6 billion infusion, while protecting some bondholders who should have taken losses. Then on June 24, Italy decided to use public funds to protect bondholders of two more banks, Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, with up to €17 billion of capital and guarantees. The one recent case in which taxpayers were spared was in Spain, when Banco Popular failed on June 6……

The Minneapolis Fed President has hit the nail on the head. Conversion of bondholders to equity may be legally plausible but psychologically damaging. Similar to money market funds “breaking the buck’, conversion of bondholders to equity in a troubled bank would traumatize markets. Causing widespread panic and damage far in excess of the initial loss. Actions of Italian authorities show how impractical conversion is. Especially when one considers that the affected banks were less than one-tenth the size of behemoths like JPMorgan [JPM].

Banks need to raise more equity capital.

Source: New Bailouts Prove ‘Too Big to Fail’ Is Alive and Well – WSJ

Australia faces headwinds

Australian wage rate growth, on the other hand, is declining. is in a worse position, with a dramatic fall in investment following the mining boom.

Australia: Wage Price Index

Source: RBA & ABS

As is inflation.

Australia: Inflation

Source: RBA & ABS

Growth in Household Disposable Income and Consumption.

Australia: Household Income and Consumption

Source: RBA & ABS

And Banks return on shareholders equity.

Australia: Banks Return on Equity

Source: RBA & APRA

But not Housing.

Australia: Banks Return on Equity

Source: RBA, ABS, APM, CoreLogic & Residex

At least not yet.

Falling house prices would complete the feedback loop, shrinking household incomes, consumption and banks ROE.

US adds 222 thousand jobs

From the Wall Street Journal:

U.S. employers picked up their pace of hiring in June. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 222,000 from the prior month, the Labor Department said. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% the prior month as more people joined the workforce…..

Job Gains

Source: St Louis Fed & BLS

Forecast GDP for the current quarter — total payrolls * hours worked — is rising, showing an improving economy.

Real GDP Forecast

Source: St Louis Fed, BLS & BEA

Declining corporate profits as a percentage of net value added (RHS) is typical of mid-cycle growth, while employee compensation (% of net value added) is rising at a modest pace. Peaks in employee compensation are normally accompanied by troughs in corporate profits…..and followed by a recession.

US Corporate Profits and Employee Compensation as percentage of Value Added

Source: St Louis Fed & BEA

Average wage rate growth, both for production/non-supervisory and all employees, remains below 2.5% per year. Absence of wage rate pressure suggests that the Fed will be in no hurry to hike interest rates to curb inflationary pressure.

Hourly Wage Rate Growth

Source: St Louis Fed & BLS

Which should mean further growth ahead.

India: Sensex bullish

Narrow consolidation around 31000 is a bullish sign for India’s Sensex. Breakout above 31500 would signal a fresh advance. Twiggs Trend Index and Twiggs Money Flow both indicate healthy LT buying pressure. Target for an advance is 33000*.

BSE Sensex

* Target: 31500 + ( 31500 – 30000 ) = 33000

Europe: DJ Stoxx 50 correction

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is undergoing a correction. Breach of medium-term support at 3500 indicates hesitancy but the primary trend remains upward. Twiggs Trend Index and Twiggs Money Flow both look similar, with a sharp decline in the last two weeks. Respect of support at 3400 remains likely and recovery above 3500 would suggest an advance to the 2015 high at 3800*.

DJ Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3650 + ( 3650 – 3500 ) = 3800

The Footsie and DJ Euro Stoxx 50 display a similar correction. My bearishness for the former primarily stems from the Pound weakening against the Euro.

Footsie falters

Sterling continues to test primary support at 1.13 against the Euro. Twiggs Trend Index peaking below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would signal a test of the 2016 low at €1.10.

GBPEUR

The FTSE 100 breached medium-term support at 7400 and the long-term rising trendline, warning that momentum is slowing. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Trend Index warns of rising selling pressure. Test of primary support at 7100 is likely.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700

Canada: TSX 60 bear market

The TSX 60 followed-through below 890, after breaking primary support at 900, to signal a bear market. Decline of Twiggs Trend Index below zero would strengthen the signal. Immediate target for the decline is 865*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 900 – ( 935 – 900 ) = 865

ASX 200: Banks run into strong resistance

Iron ore peaked at $60. Expect a sharp fall to test support between $50 and $52, typical of a bear market. Chinese housing price growth — a key driver of iron ore prices as illustrated last week — is slowing and likely to drag ore prices lower.

Iron Ore

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is still on the up but likely to respect resistance at 3000, given the reversal in iron ore. Breach of 2750 would confirm a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks index ran into strong resistance at 8500. Declining Twiggs Money Flow highlights selling pressure. Breach of 8000 is likely and would confirm the primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Banks

The ASX 200 displays strong selling pressure, with tall shadows on the last two weekly candles. Twiggs Money Flow dipping below zero for the second time warns of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 5700 would test primary support at 5600. Breach of 5600 would complete a broad head and shoulders reversal, confirming a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

Gold tests resolve

The Dollar Index is in a primary down-trend. Short-term support is unlikely to hold. The long-term target is the 2016 low between 92 and 93.

Dollar Index

Silver often acts as a lead indicator gold. Testing primary support at $15.50/15.60 per ounce, breach would warn of a primary down-trend.

Silver

I have been bullish on gold since the election of Donald Trump as president. My comment last week was:

“Let me put it this way: recovery of gold above $1250 would not be a surprise. And would test resistance at $1300….”

Gold is trending lower, breach of $1215 warning of a test of primary support at $1200.

From a fundamental viewpoint, I can find no strong argument to support a lower gold price:

So I remain bullish on the long-term outlook for gold. But a peak below zero on Twiggs Trend Index warns of weakness. Breach of primary support at $1200 would mean that all bets are off.

Spot Gold

Tillerson: Not many good North Korea options | Reuters

From Reuters:

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Friday there would not be many good options left on North Korea if the peaceful pressure campaign the United States has been pushing to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs failed….

The United States, Japan and South Korea agreed on Friday to push for a quick U.N. Security Council resolution to apply new sanctions on North Korea. U.N. diplomats said the United States had given China a draft sanctions resolution.

But Washington faces an uphill struggle to convince Russia and China to give quick backing to new U.N. sanctions.

Experts say North Korea’s ICBM launch on Tuesday was a major step forward in its declared intent to create nuclear-tipped missiles capable of hitting the United States. Some U.S. experts say the missile appeared to have the range to hit Alaska, Hawaii and parts of the U.S. Pacific Northwest.

Washington has warned it is ready to use force if need be to stop North Korea’s weapons programs but the consequences of that could be catastrophic and it prefers global diplomatic action.

Source: Not many good North Korea options if pressure fails: Tillerson | Reuters