Author: ColinTwiggs

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Traders Don’t Care About Long-Term Problems, But You Should | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

We believe the psyche of investors is on the verge of reaching a tipping point, which could cause a very rapid decline in asset prices. It is next to impossible to know if and when they will reach for the sell button in unison, but the risk for such an event is elevated and must be considered in all portfolio management decisions. Stocks dropped 34% in twelve trading sessions in 1987. High volatility occurred before that drop, indicating an increased willingness to run for the exits. If you have not noticed, the markets have been volatile recently. An “Oh, my God” type event is difficult to predict, but the conditions are in place to make for an interesting next few months.

via Traders Don’t Care About Long-Term Problems, But You Should | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com.

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Chinese manufacturing index rises but export outlook dips | The Australian

Exports were a problem area during the month, as the official survey’s new export orders subindex fell to 48.3 from 50.4 in July, slipping into contractionary territory for the first time since April 2009.

Economists said the weak exports reading could be an ominous sign for the export-dependent economy.

“It is a sign that China was affected by turbulent global markets in August,” said Standard Chartered economist Li Wei.

via Chinese manufacturing index rises but export outlook dips | The Australian.

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On High Correlations – Seeking Alpha

If the time horizons of investors are predominantly long, correlations on assets should be low in the short-run, because investors don’t make decisions to trade off of short-term macro factors. But when a large part of the investor base is skittish and is always running to or from the latest bit/byte/bite of data – that leads to high correlations.

ETFs aren’t necessary for high correlations, but they seem to help the process by creating easy ways for people to implement decisions that are a simple idea. “I want financials, I don’t want energy, buy the long bond, sell gold.”

Thus high short-term correlations indicate a momentum mindset in the investor base.

via On High Correlations – Seeking Alpha.

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Aussie stronger

The Aussie Dollar followed commodities higher, breaking through $1.06 to signal a test of resistance at $1.10. 63-Day Momentum holding above zero suggests continuation of the up-trend. In the long term, breakout above $1.10 would offer a target of $1.20* — though this is only likely if we see more quantitative easing from the Fed.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.10 + ( 1.10 – 1.00 ) = 1.20

The Aussie Dollar is testing the upper trend channel against its Kiwi counterpart; breakout would warn that the down-trend is weakening. Reversal below $1.245 would warn of a test of the lower trend channel.

AUDNZD

* Target calculation: 1.24 – ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.20

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Euro checks support

The euro is headed for another test of support at $1.40 after respecting resistance at $1.45. The descending triangle suggests a downward breakout with a target of $1.30. Momentum crossing below zero would strengthen the signal.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.40 – ( 1.50 – 1.40 ) = 1.30

The pound sterling is also headed for a test of support, this time at $1.60. Breach of the rising trendline warns of trend weakness; a Momentum cross below zero would again strengthen the signal. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.53*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.60 – ( 1.67 – 1.60 ) = 1.53

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Dollar Index threatens support

The Dollar Index continues to test the band of support at 73.00 to 73.50. The recent failed up-swing (it did not reach 76.00) suggests selling pressure. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero indicates a strong down-trend. Breakout below 73.00 would offer a medium-term target of 70.00*.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 73 – ( 76 – 73 ) = 70

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Commodities: trend starts to bend

The CRB Commodities Index threatens a breakout above its trend channel, while 63-day Momentum crossed above zero. Neither is of much consequence yet, but retracement that respects support at 335, or a Momentum trough that respects the zero line, would warn that the down-trend is at an end.

RJ/CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 315 – ( 330 – 315 ) = 300

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Crude oil divergence continues

The spread between Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude remains at $24/barrel. Brent is rallying to test the declining trendline, but retreat to medium-term support at $105 is likely. Resolution of the conflict in Libya should take some of the supply pressure off European refineries, easing Brent prices.

Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Light Crude

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

We then have to wait and see what Chairman Ben pulls out of his hat at the September 21st FOMC meeting. Further quantitative easing would cause an upward spike in commodity prices, including crude.

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Gold miners threaten breakout

The Gold Bugs Index, representing unhedged gold miners, threatens to break through resistance at 600 which would signal an advance to 700*. Upward breakout would negate the earlier bear signal from penetration of the rising trendline — as well as strengthening prospects of a further advance in the spot price.

Gold Bugs Index

* Target calculation: 600 + ( 600 – 500 ) = 700

Spot gold has so far respected the secondary trendline and support at $1750. Short retracement from resistance at $1850 would be a bullish sign, suggesting an upward breakout. Recovery above $1900 would test $2000, though the calculated target is even higher*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1750 ) = 2050

Upside potential for gold remains strong. Treasury and the Fed are running out of options to revive the economy and further quantitative easing grows ever more inviting despite the inflationary outcome. With presidential elections looming in 2012, the White House will also be doing their best to influence the Fed decision.

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When debt levels turn cancerous – Telegraph Blogs

The professoriat has been a little too cavalier in arguing that debt does not really matter for the world as a whole because we all owe it to ourselves. Debtors are offset by creditors (not always from friendly countries). Common sense suggest that this academic solipsism is preposterous, and so it now proves to be.

“As modern macroeconomics developed over the last half-century, most people either ignored or finessed the issue of debt. Yet, as the mainstream was building and embracing the New Keynesian orthodoxy, there was a nagging concern that something had been missing…..There are intrinsic differences between borrowers and lenders; non-linearities, discontinuities… It is the asymmetry between those who are highly indebted and those who are not that leads to a decline in aggregate demand.”

Creditors do not step up spending to cover the shortfall when debtors are forced to retrench suddenly. So the economy tanks.

via Ambrose Evans-Pritchard|When debt levels turn cancerous – Telegraph Blogs.

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