ColinTwiggs, Author at the patient investor

September 22, 2011

China’s Big Four banks reportedly see big outflows – MarketWatch

China’s four biggest banks are seeing a big outflow of deposits…….. a large portion of the CNY420 billion of deposits may have flowed to the high-yielding private lending markets, which have grown rapidly in recent months due to the strong borrowing demand from small businesses…….Borrowing rates in the private lending markets are typically 10 times the benchmark deposit rates, the report said. China’s one-year benchmark deposit rate stands at 3.5% now.

via China’s Big Four banks reportedly see big outflows – MarketWatch.

…A sign that monetary tightening is starting to bite.

September 22, 2011

The Dow tests key support at 10600

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing support at 10600; failure would add final confirmation of the bear market signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum (holding below zero).

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

September 22, 2011

Aussie Dollar breaks parity as commodities fall

The CRB Commodities Index gapped down to its lower trend channel in response to turmoil in Europe and the resulting stronger dollar.

CRB Commodities Index

The Aussie followed its Canadian counterpart below parity, confirming a primary down-trend with an initial target of $0.94*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94

September 22, 2011

Yen super-trend continues

The dollar continues its downward 30-year super-trend against the yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) appears unable to support the dollar at current levels and breakout below ¥80 warns of a decline to ¥70*.

USDJPY

* Target calculation: 80 – ( 90 – 80 ) = 70

September 22, 2011

Europe falls heavily at open

Dow Jones Europe Index collapsed at the open of European markets, breakout below 225 signaling another down-swing with a target of 185*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum declining below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 225 – ( 265 – 225 ) = 185

September 22, 2011

Gold tests key support level at $1750/ounce

Buyers appear to be losing interest and spot gold is headed for a test of the key $1750 support level. Failure would complete a double top, warning of a correction to $1500/$1600* (depending on whether you take the base as $1700 or $1750). Respect would indicate another test of $1900.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1900 + (1900 – 1750 ) = 2050 and 1750 – (1900 – 1750 ) = 1600

September 22, 2011

Euro troubles Pound Swiss Franc

Concerns about its European trading partner dragged the Pound lower against the greenback. Target for the initial primary decline is $1.53*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.59 – ( 1.65 – 1.59 ) = 1.53

The Swiss Franc is now headed for a test of parity against the greenback, dragged lower by its peg at €1.20.

CHFUSD

* Target calculation: 1.20 – ( 1.40 – 1.20 ) = 1.00

September 22, 2011

Loonie turns, will Aussie follow?

Canada’s Loonie broke parity against the greenback, confirming a primary down-trend and offering an initial target of $0.94*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.00 – ( 1.06 – 1.00 ) = 0.94

The Canadian and Aussie Dollars have tracked each other closely over the last year and it seems inevitable that the Aussie will follow the Loonie below parity.

CADUSD and AUDUSD

September 22, 2011

Brent Nymex WTI Crude

Brent crude respected its declining trendline and is likely to re-test support at $104. Failure would warn of a correction to the long-term, rising trendline at 95*.

Brent and Nymex WTI Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 115 – 105 ) = 95

September 22, 2011

Aussie Dollar heads south as commodities weaken

The CRB Commodities Index is trending downwards in a broad trend channel after a failed rally to test resistance at 350. Expect a test of the long-term rising trendline at 300. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero confirms a primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

The Australian Dollar broke support at $1.02, signaling a primary down-trend, before testing medium-term support at parity. Failure of support — and breach of the rising trendline — would confirm the down-trend and offer a target of $0.94*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.10 – 1.02 ) = 0.94