The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3 to 2 today to limit trading in oil, wheat, gold and other commodities after a boom in raw-materials speculation, record- high prices and years of debate and delay.
The rule limits the number of contracts a single firm can hold and it limits traders to 25 percent of deliverable supply in the month nearest to delivery.
Basel 3, the Basel Committee’s new global regulatory standard on banks’ capital adequacy and liquidity, will more or less double the equity requirements, and will impose extra costs on banks deemed “too big to fail.” The Committee’s analysis of the economic consequences found that the impact on growth would be modest, perhaps reducing GDP by 0.33% after five years – easily within the margin of forecast error. The OECD took a different view, putting the growth impact at about twice that level, and rather higher in Europe, where companies rely far more on bank financing than they do in the US.
In sharp contrast, the Institute of International Finance, the leading trade association for the world’s top banks, believes that the impact of higher capital requirements could be far stronger. The IIF believes that GDP could be fully 5% lower after five years, with unemployment more than 7% higher.
The IIF’s forecast may seem alarmist, but the competing estimates are based on some intriguing analytical differences. Regulators take the view that the impact of higher capital requirements on the cost of credit to borrowers will be modest, as the overall cost of funds to banks will not rise much. They rest their case on the famous Modigliani-Miller theorem, which implies that a company cannot alter its capital cost by changing the balance between equity and debt on its balance sheet. If there is more equity, then logically debt should be cheaper, as the company (or bank) is better insulated from default.
Bankers accept that, in the long run, the theorem might hold, but argue that it will take time, especially given recent events, to persuade investors that banks are genuinely safer….
via The Bankers’ Capital War – Howard Davies – Project Syndicate.
France has argued the most effective way of leveraging the European Financial Stability Facility is to turn it into a bank which could then access funding from the ECB, but both the central bank and the German government have opposed this.
“In Germany, the coalition is divided on this issue. It is not just Angela Merkel who we need to convince,” [French President Nicolas Sarkozy] told the parliamentarians at a lunch meeting, according to Charles de Courson, one of the legislators present.
His comments fueled doubts about whether euro zone leaders will be able to agree a clear and convincing plan when they meet on Sunday.
via Sarkozy says euro zone talks stuck, flies to Germany | Top News | Reuters.
“As I wrote in April: If long rates are largely determined by expected future short rates, the longer short rates are at zero percent, the lower long rates will go. That’s toxic for bank interest margins…..
Now that we are seeing more movement down on net interest margins (BofA and Wells Fargo both showed margin compression for example), the mainstream media is finally catching on to the connection between Fed policy and net interest margins. You heard it here first though.”
via A year later everyone is catching on about Fed policy and net interest margins | Credit Writedowns.
“Given that one of the root causes of the current sovereign debt
crisis are unsustainable fiscal policies, I want to emphasise that this calls for a clear strengthening of incentives for prudent and sustainable fiscal policies. The introduction of common bonds in the euro area would, however, clearly weaken such incentives without
offering a long-term crisis resolution.”
via Jürgen Stark: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.
“Central banks certainly did not ignore issues of financial stability in the decades before the recent crisis, but financial stability policy was often viewed as the junior partner to monetary policy,” he [Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke] said. “One of the most important legacies of the crisis will be the restoration of financial stability policy to co-equal status with monetary policy.”
via Bernanke Hangs Tough on Financial Reform.
The problem with having two equal objectives is, when they conflict, which do you choose?
At Wells Fargo, based in San Francisco, net interest margin fell to 3.84%, the fourth consecutive decline. Wells Fargo blamed the problem on its inability to lend enough of the deposits pouring into the bank. The decline overshadowed a 21% jump in third-quarter net income, which rose to $4.1 billion, as Wells Fargo’s deposit base expanded and nonperforming assets fell. It said its growth in loans and capital was “solid.”
Wells Fargo shares sank 8.4%, or $2.25, to $24.42 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading at 4 p.m.
Merkel and Sarkozy claim they’ve got everything under control. They’re lying. Anyone who uses common sense can tell this. The reason…
They’ve never considered the true price tag for the leveraged EFSF. I’m not talking about money, I’m talking about funding costs for France and Germany when they lose their AAA rated status as a result of backing up Greece. First off, while France and Germany are the most solvent members of the EU, they’re not exactly models of fiscal austerity. Consider that both countries officially have Debt to GDP ratios of roughly 80% (Germany’s is 78% and France’s is 84%).
Dow Jones Shanghai Index fell sharply on Tuesday, signaling a test of the lower trend channel. Declining 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend.
The Hang Seng Index retreated to 18000 Tuesday. Respect of both resistance at 19000 and the descending trendline warn of another test of primary support at 16000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term selling pressure. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 13000*.
* Target calculation: 16 – ( 19 – 16 ) = 13
The ASX 200 index encountered both the declining trendline (from April 2011) and resistance at 4300. Low volume indicates a lack of enthusiasm from buyers. The strong red candle warns of another test of 3850; follow-through below Tuesday’s low would confirm.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500
