Commodities drag Aussie and Canadian dollar lower

Commodities are weakening and dragging the Aussie and Loonie lower. The Aussie dollar shows a similar iceberg pattern on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, warning of a primary down-trend. Breakout below primary support at $0.94 would offer a long-term target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie is also headed for a test of $0.94 against the greenback. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support (0.94) would offer a target of $0.87*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87

Commodities and Crude Oil

Brent Crude is testing medium-term support at $105/barrel. Failure is likely if the dollar continues to strengthen and would mean a test of the $99/$100 primary level. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below -5% would complete an iceberg pattern, indicating a solid primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $85/barrel*.

Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 115 – 100 ) = 85

Roughly only 10% of an iceberg is visible at sea, with most of the ice-mass hidden below the water-line. Similarly, an “iceberg” pattern on a chart describes a situation where +/- 90% of Twiggs Momentum (or a similar indicator) is below zero with only a small peak protruding above. 

CRB Commodities Index is similarly headed for a test of primary support, at 295. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of 265*.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

That would have a negative impact on the Aussie Dollar and Canadian Loonie which closely track commodity prices.

Gold falters as the dollar strengthens

Spot Gold is headed for another test of the lower trend channel on the weekly chart. Failure of support at $1600 would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend; follow-through below the September low at $1550 would confirm. A fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would also warn of a reversal.

Spot Gold Weekly Chart

Penetration of medium-term support at $1700 on the daily chart of spot gold is not a strong signal, but follow-through below the recent low would indicate a test of primary support at $1600. Failure would offer a target of $1400*.

Spot Gold Daily Chart

* Target calculation: 1600 – ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 1400

The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index has been ranging between 500 and 600 for some time. Decline of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests long-term weakness. Reversal below primary support at 500 would signal a primary down-trend — and a negative outlook for gold.

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index

Dollar strength continues

The Dollar Index is headed for a test of resistance at 80. The brief dip below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a solid primary up-trend. Breakout above 80 would offer a target of 85*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

EUROPA – Press Releases – New action for growth, governance and stability

Extract from Press release regarding European Commission proposal for a common euro-zone bond market and tighter budgetary controls for members:

The proposed Regulation strengthening surveillance of budgetary policies in euro area Member States would require these countries to present their draft budgets at the same time each year and give the Commission the right to assess and, if necessary, issue an opinion on them. The Commission could request that these drafts be revised, should it consider them to be seriously non-compliant with the policy obligations laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact. All of this would be done publicly to ensure full transparency. The Regulation also proposes closer monitoring and reporting requirements for euro area countries in Excessive Deficit Procedure, to apply on an ongoing basis throughout the budgetary cycle. And euro area Member States would be required to have in place independent fiscal councils and to base their budgets on independent forecasts.

The proposed Regulation strengthening economic and fiscal surveillance of euro area countries facing or threatened with serious financial instability would ensure that the surveillance of these Member States under a financial assistance programme, or facing a serious threat of financial instability, is robust, follows clear procedures and is embedded in EU law. The Commission would be able to decide whether a Member State experiencing severe difficulties with regard to its financial stability should be subject to enhanced surveillance. The Council would be able to issue a recommendation to such Member States to request financial assistance.

The Green Paper on Stability Bonds analyses the potential benefits and challenges of three approaches to the joint issuance of debt in the euro area. The paper sets out the likely effects of each of these approaches on Member States’ funding costs, European financial integration, financial market stability and the global attractiveness of EU financial markets. It also considers the risks of moral hazard posed by each approach, as well as its implications in terms of Treaty change. Stability Bonds are seen by some as a potentially highly effective long-term response to the sovereign debt crisis, while others are concerned that they would remove the market incentive for fiscal discipline and encourage moral hazard. The Commission makes clear that any move towards introducing Stability Bonds would only be feasible and desirable if there were a simultaneous strengthening of budgetary discipline. The extent of this strengthening needs to be commensurate with the ambition of the approach chosen.

via EUROPA – Press Releases – New action for growth, governance and stability.

EU Sets Out Proposal on Euro-Zone Bonds – WSJ.com

BRUSSELS—The European Commission proposed Wednesday significantly tighter controls over euro-zone members’ budgets, alongside options for a common euro-zone bond market.

….The commission said the deteriorating economic climate requires greater reform efforts from member states.

If a government doesn’t comply with the EU’s demands, they could be locked out of European Union budget funding, which can amount to billions of euros a year.

….The proposals are designed to strengthen the way the euro zone is governed and they go as far as the Commission has said it can go without changing the European Union treaty. Closer integration would set the groundwork for issuing joint bonds among the euro currency’s 17 governments.

via EU Sets Out Proposal on Euro-Zone Bonds – WSJ.com.

Europe warns of another decline

Dow Jones Europe Index is headed for a test of the band of support between 200 and 205. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a strong primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would offer a target of 150*.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 205 – ( 260 – 205 ) = 150

The credit crunch is coming – macrobusiness.com.au

The SMH has [a] very important story this morning on the funding crisis that is bearing down on the major banks:

Australian banks are preparing for a potential freeze in global funding markets as Europe’s worsening stresses threaten to send the world’s financial markets into a tailspin. Renewed funding pressures for the big banks, which need to raise $16.3 billion over the next two months, are likely to make it tougher for business and some consumers to access credit.

via The credit crunch is coming – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

Bovespa disappoints

Brazil’s Bovespa index disappointed after promising a breakout above 60000. The index failed to break through resistance, instead falling through support at 58000 to warn of another test of 48000. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum and Twiggs Money Flow, however, continue to indicate that the index is forming a bottom.

Bovespa Index

Singapore Straits Times Index & Indian Sensex

The Straits Times Index broke through 2700, warning of another primary down-swing. The decline of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a primary down-trend. Target for the initial down-swing is 2100*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2500 – ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

India’s BSE Sensex Index broke the band of primary support at 15800 to 16000, warning of a decline to 14000*. Repeated peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicate a strong primary down-trend.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) = 14