US Dollar Index

The Dollar Index continues in a primary up-trend after twice successfully testing support at 79.50/80.00. Target for the advance is 85.00*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

Westpac: Follow that Flow

  • The US recovery from the 2007–2009 recession has been particularly disappointing, in part due to the moribund state of the housing market.
  • The state of the housing market is in part a symptom of excess leverage, the US’ core concern.
  • Excess leverage will continue to weigh on US economic growth, restricting it to a sub-trend pace for the foreseeable future, resulting in a need for further QE.

….. Given the size of the US’ debt stock and the lack of assets set aside to fund future pension liabilities, it is logical to conclude that above-trend growth conditions are a long way off. In the meantime, households and government authorities will remain heavily exposed to any further deterioration in conditions, whether it be domestic or foreign (i.e. Europe) in origin.

QE3 will be needed merely to help protect against a further deterioration in economic conditions. Such a program would have to be large in scale and in coverage, likely covering USTs, mortgage securities and, with time, the existing debt of SLGs.

A final point: the degree of easing required to alleviate the financial stresses the US economy currently faces (and hopefully at least maintain the current level of activity) has not been recognised by markets. Given the precarious state of Europe, the market will likely take its time in coming to terms with the US’ own concerns. But, when the spotlight falls on the US, we expect a greater awareness of US credit risk and the absence of near-term growth prospects will see yields rise and the US dollar fall.

Eurosis and US window-dressing

Neurosis: Emotional disorder arising from no apparent organic lesion or change and involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety, depression, and irrational fears…… No longer in scientific use.

Eurosis: Economic disorder involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety and depression, arising from rational fears of a collapse of the European monetary and banking system……. No longer of much use.

Europe

Dow Jones Europe index encountered (medium-term) resistance at 240. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Expect a test of primary support at 210. Failure of support would indicate a fall to 160*.

DJ Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – (260 – 210 ) = 160

US

The S&P 500 index is stronger, testing resistance at 1300. Breakout would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. We are likely to see significant window-dressing ahead of the November 2012 election. The market may well respond, but the real picture is bleaker with an economy reliant on deficit-spending in order to avoid a slide back into recession. Respect of resistance at 1300 would warn of another test of primary support at 1160.

S&P 500 Index


Australia

ASX 200 index reflects the middle ground. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure but the index is presently testing primary support at 4000. Failure would signal a fall to 3650*. News of a fresh stimulus program in China, however, should help support resources stocks.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – (4350 – 4000 ) = 3650

Asia: Shanghai weakens but India displays support

China’s Shanghai Composite index has been edging lower since breaking support at 2400. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum, declining below zero, confirms a primary down-trend. Expect a test of the 2008 low at 1700 in the months ahead.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 – ( 3200 – 2400 ) = 1600

India’s Sensex Index broke support at 16000 but then retraced to test the new resistance level. An encouraging bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow shows buying pressure. Breakout above 16000 would indicate a rally to 18000. Respect of resistance, however, would confirm the down-swing to 14000*.


BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 18 – 16 ) = 14

Singapore’s Straits Times Index follows a similar course to India. Recovery above 2900 would signal a (primary trend) reversal.

Singapore Straits Times Index


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index faces similar resistance at 20000. Respect would indicate another test of 16000, while breakout would signal a reversal.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index


The weekly chart shows Japan’s Nikkei 225 index on a similar path to Shanghai — headed for a test of its 2008/9 lows. Failure of medium-term support at 8200 would strengthen the signal. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9 – ( 11 – 9 ) = 7

South Korea’s Seoul Composite index is testing resistance at 1920 but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 1800 would suggest another test of support at 1650. Upward breakout is unlikely but would indicate a (primary trend) reversal.

Seoul Composite Index

Direct Democracy and Economics

Reproduced with kind permission from Steven Spadijer at Australian National University:

What is Direct Democracy?

Direct Democracy allows a prescribed number of citizens’ to veto an existing law or enact a constitutional amendment or statute independent of the legislature at a referendum. Today, these procedures complement the day-to-day representative government found in Switzerland and its 26 cantons, 7 German Länder, Liechtenstein, 24 American states and parts of Latin America.

Readers might notice that these regions are some of the wealthiest, well-governed and most stable countries in their region today. But do constitutions matter for economic performance? In particular, does the use of direct democracy matter from an economic perspective?

The Swiss Experience

Authors Feld and Savioz (see references below) found that per capita GDP in cantons which use Direct Democracy more frequently, and have easy access to these rights, are some 5 percent higher than in cantons which have infrequent use (even when controlling for income and other demographic variables). Feld also shows that direct democracy is associated with sounder public finances, lower levels of public debt, better economic performance and higher satisfaction of citizens.

Schaltegger with Feld then reveal centralization of public resources is more likely to occur under representative government while direct democracy is more likely to decentralize the provision of public resources, concluding that :

the empirical analysis provides evidence that referendums induce less centralization of fiscal activities.

In turn, such decentralization prompts vigorous tax competition between the cantons of Switzerland attracting capital from aboard as well as better education outcomes for all.

More recently, Funk and Gathmann find using Swiss data from 1890 to 2000 that a mandatory budget referendum reduces canton expenditures by 12 percent while lowering signature requirements for the voter initiatives by 1 percent reduces canton spending by 0.6 percent.

Pommerehne then examines the effects of direct democracy on the efficiency with which government services are provided. He finds that waste collection in Swiss towns having both a private contractor for the service and direct democratic elements is provided at lowest cost. Additional efficiency losses materialize if waste collection is provided in towns without direct democratic elements.

So far as its economic impact in Switzerland, direct democracy has brought with it unparalleled economic prosperity, despite the country being far from resource-rich.

Progressivism and Direct Democracy

It is important to note that Direct Democracy per se does not lead to lower spending. Rather, it accords with what citizens require given the context. If your infrastructure is state-of-the-art, then there is no need for lavish expenditure. Conversely, if it is dwindling (try taking a train from Western Sydney to the city), then it is a gun behind the door.

In Uruguay, for example, voters repealed privatization of the countries water supply and oil companies, “Norwegian-izing” their natural resources via the initiative process. Matsusaka noted that during the first half of the twentieth century in the United States, which was characterised by massive urbanisation and movement of people from rural to urban areas all of which required railways, roads and schools to be built), initiative states spent more — both statewide and locally, but lower state and higher local expenditure after controlling for income and other demographics.

This was used to bypass the legislature dominated by farmers and allowed the US to urbanise itself. Together with existing evidence from later in the century which shows its ‘libertarian’ streaks, suggests that the voter initiative does not have a consistent effect on the overall size of state and local government.

However, in all cases Direct Democracy systematically leads to more decentralized expenditure. Indeed, Blume and Voigt note in Germany that the introduction of direct democratic elements in local constitutions led to higher rates of expenditures on local infrastructure. For example, Bavaria – one of the most efficient, well governed parts of Germany – has had over 1500 referendums locally from 1995 to 2005.

Reasons?

But why does direct democracy deliver results far superior to that of representative government? There are 3 broad reasons:

1. In a principal-agent framework, citizens are the principals and can only very imperfectly control their agent — the government.

In this situation, direct democratic institutions can have two effects, namely a direct effect, which enables the principals to override the decisions of an unfaithful agent, and an indirect effect, where simply the threat of override is sufficient to compel the agent to behave according to the principal’s preferences.

Potentially, reducing the principal-agent problem by way of direct democratic institutions could affect all of the economic variables discussed in this paper: if citizens prefer an expenditure level that is higher/lower than that preferred by the government, they should be able to achieve it via direct democratic institutions.

2. James Buchannan attributes the poor performance of representative government due to the theory of “adverse selection”:

[S]uppose that a monopoly right is to be auctioned; whom will we predict to be the highest bidder? Surely we can presume that the person who intends to exploit the monopoly power most fully, the one for whom the expected profit is highest, will be among the highest bidders for the franchise.

In the same way, positions of political power will tend to attract those persons who place higher values on the possession of such power. Is there any presumption that political rent seeking will ultimately allocate offices to the ‘best’ persons?

Genuine public-interest motivations may exist and may even be widespread, but are these motivations sufficiently passionate to stimulate people to fight for political office, to compete with those whose passions include the desire to wield power over others?

Under these monopolistic conditions it is entirely predictable that the system will adversely select odious politicians who act in their own interests, with secondary regard for the subjects they rule or that of the opposition. It is inevitable that the dishonest politicians will deliberately misrepresent the state of affairs to the public in their desperate attempts to secure votes, buying off special interest groups and powerful lobbies piecemeal with gifts from the public purse.

And it is only a matter of time before the megalomaniacs pursue some expensive, harebrained, self-serving scheme (like the EU, the Euro debacle, or a war – all of which were rejected by the people) that brings down disaster on their subjects. Does anyone, for example, believe Ireland would be in the position it is today if it had the Swiss system of government, handing over your own sovereignty to the EU? I doubt it.

3. By contrast, direct democracy allows one to serve no one but their own community and families. Buchannan further notes:

…direct democracy [acts as] an add-on or addendum to existing decision rules and procedures, as carried out through legislative bodies or through executive-administrative agencies, provisions for popular initiatives and referenda can operate so as to forestall collective actions that might otherwise be implemented.

And such provisions may exert an influence as a potential check even if no popular efforts toward actual organization of an electoral test are made. Legislators, executives, bureaucrats, and judges will keep arbitrary actions within tighter boundaries when they are subjected to potential reversals through popular referenda.

In sum, the effects of direct democracy add-ons to existing decision rules surely work toward reducing the range and scope for politicization, a result supported by classical liberals.

Conclusion

We can see there is a powerful case for direct democracy from an economic perspective. We can also see that direct democracy, like Switzerland, is a “neutral” force: when governments go too far toward the right, the initiative reverts government back to the left forcing them to spend on infrastructure to avoid unnecessary and crippling bottlenecks.

When the government goes too far left, direct democracy reverts the government to the right, decentralizing expenditure. Presumably, in Australia direct democracy would decentralize taxation and result in competitive federalism (note most centralized power proceeds undemocratically) – perhaps giving [Australia] a fighting chance to compete with Singapore!

References

Lars P. Feld and John G. Matsusaka, ‘Budget Referendums and Government Spending: Evidence From Swiss Cantons’

Lars P. Feld and Marcel Savioz, ‘Direct Democracy Matters for Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation’

John G. Matsusaka, ‘Fiscal Effects of the Voter Initiative in the First Half of the Twentieth Century’

Lorenz Blume and Stefan Voigt, ‘Fiscal Effects of Reforming Local Constitutions: Recent German Experiences’

Christoph A. Schaltegger, ‘Tax Competition and Income Sorting: Evidence from the Zurich metropolitan area’

Patricia Funk and Christina Gathmann, ‘Does Direct Democracy Reduce the Size of Government?’

Euro Zone Isn’t Only Potential 2012 Boogey Man – Real Time Economics – WSJ

Here are three more to add to the list.
First, U.S. consumers pull back again. U.S. households have been resilient which has lifted global producers. But future spending will depend on better job growth and incomes growing ahead of prices…..
Second, a U.S.-China trade war breaks out. China has slowed down. If growth drops more than expected and social unrest increases, Beijing might react by blaming U.S. regulations for the loss of work…..
Last but not least, fiscal policy blunders big-time. Never underestimate the ability of Washington to screw up the economy if political points can be scored…..

via Euro Zone Isn’t Only Potential 2012 Boogey Man – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

Mega-trends and their impact in 2012

To arrive at an outlook for the year ahead we first need to analyze the big trends that endure for decades and in some cases even longer.

Population growth and food resources

The number one dynamic over the last century has been the exponential rise in global population. It took 123 years for the world population to grow from 1 to 2 billion (by 1927) and only 12 years to grow from 5 to 6 billion (by 1999). Growth, however, is now slowing and we are predicted to rise from the current 7 billion to a peak of 9 billion in the 2050s.

At the same time we are faced with increasing scarcity of food and water. Advances in technology have improved crop yields, but increased meat consumption in China and other Asian economies will reduce overall output. The area of land required to produce an equivalent amount of edible protein from livestock is 4 to 5 times higher compared to traditional grains and legumes, and up to 10 times higher for beef. Diversion of land use for ethanol production will also restrict food output.

Global warming, whether man-made or a natural cycle, may also contribute to declining food production — through droughts, floods and depleting fish stocks.

Depleting natural resources

We are also depleting global deposits of ferrous- and non-ferrous ores — as well as energy reserves of crude oil and coal — as global industrialization accelerates. Commodity costs can be expected to rise as readily available resources are depleted and we are forced to dig deeper and endure harsher conditions in order to access fresh deposits. Deep water ocean-drilling and exploration within the Arctic and Antarctic circles are likely to increase.

As energy resources are depleted, nuclear energy production is likely to expand despite current safety concerns. Development of technologies such as thorium fluoride reactors hold out some hope of safer nuclear options, but these may be some way off. Wind and solar energy are likely to remain on the fringe until technology develops to the point where they are cost effective compared to alternative sources.

Global competition

Competition for scarce resources will increase tensions between major economic players, with each attempting to expand their sphere of influence — and secure their sources of supply. The Middle East, Africa, South America, Australia, Mongolia and the former USSR are all potential targets because of their rich resource base.

Trade wars

In addition to competition for scarce resources, we are also likely to see increased competition for international trade. Resistance to further currency manipulation — initiated by Japan in the 1980s and perpetuated by China in the last decade — is likely to rise. US Treasury holdings by China and Japan currently sit at more than $2.3 Trillion, the inflows on capital account being used to offset outflows on current account and maintain a competitive trade advantage by suppressing their exchange rate.

Rise of democracy

Another factor contributing to instability is the rise of democracy in some parts of the world. The Arab Spring is still in its infancy, but the development has no doubt caused concern amongst autocratic governments around the globe. Food shortages and rising global prices will act as a catalyst. The likely result is increased suppression in some autocracies and a rapid transition to democracy in others, like Myanmar. But the transition to democracy is never smooth — especially in countries with clear fault lines, such as language, religious, racial or cultural differences — and can lead to decades of conflict before some degree of stability is achieved.

Decay of Democracy

On the other hand we are witnessing the decay of long-standing, mature Western democracies. Undue influence exerted by special interest groups with large cash resources — such as banks, big oil, and armaments manufacturers — force politicians to serve not only their electorate but their financial sponsors. Aging populations pose a new threat: large voting blocs who are not participants in the economic workforce will wield increasing influence over distribution of social welfare payments such as Medicare and Pensions. And politicians are increasingly guilty of over-spending, running up public debt and debasing currencies, in their attempt to keep voters happy and secure re-election.

The long term hope is that we evolve a more consensus-based form of democracy, along the lines of the Swiss model, and away from the excesses of the current winner-takes-all system.

Global debt binge

The decay in Western democracy resulted in a massive debt binge over the last 3 decades, with private debt often growing at double-figure rates, accompanied by burgeoning public debt levels. The massive debt bubble far outstripped GDP growth, effectively debasing currencies and causing soaring inflation of consumer and asset (housing and stock) prices. The GFC marked the peak of the debt expansion and was followed rapid contraction as the private sector diverted income to repay debt. Debt contraction is catastrophic, however, and can cause GDP to fall by up to 25 percent as in the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The response has been a massive expansion of public debt as governments run deficits in order to offset the private debt contraction. Overall debt levels hardly faltered as government spending programs filled the hole left by private debt contraction. While this succeeded in plugging the gap, many Western governments are left with huge public debt and increasingly nervous bond markets.

Central banks such as the Fed and BOE stepped into the breach, purchasing government bonds with newly-created money. Apart from putting gold performance on steroids, central bank asset purchases had little impact on inflation because the effect was offset by the deflationary debt contraction. But cessation of the debt contraction would let the genie out of the bottle.

Outlook for 2012

Here is how I believe these big trends will impact on 2012. I do not claim to have a crystal ball and it may be amusing to review these predictions at the end of the year:

  • Further debt contraction
    Contraction of private debt and constraints on government borrowing will strengthen deflationary forces.
  • Further QE
    The Fed and BOE are likely to expand their balance sheets to support public borrowing. The ECB may make a limited response because of constraints imposed by member states such as Germany.
  • Low inflation
    Deflationary forces will outweigh the inflationary effect of QE by central banks.
  • Low global growth
    Debt contraction and a euro-zone banking crisis will ensure low growth.
  • Euro-zone banking crisis will require further bank rescues
    Placing further stress on public debt levels, and pressure on the ECB to act.
  • China “soft” landing
    A second massive stimulus focused on low-cost housing and quelling social unrest will restore economic activity, but export markets will remain flat and the banking sector inundated with non-performing loans.
  • Easing of commodity prices slows
    Massive stimulus from China will support commodity prices.
  • Further social unrest amongst autocratic regimes
    The Arab Spring will continue sporadically across a far wider area.
  • Crude oil prices remain high, aided by further conflict
    High crude prices will also contribute to low growth.
  • US current account deficit shrinks as yuan rises
    Increased pressure from the US will prevent China from expanding its Treasury investments causing the yuan to strengthen against the dollar.
  • Dollar strengthens against euro
    A euro-zone banking crisis will ensure that the dollar preserves its safe-haven status.
  • Gold bull-trend when QE resumes
    Resumption of QE by the Fed would ensure that gold resumes its bull-trend against the dollar.

I wish you peace and prosperity in the year ahead but, most of all, the good health to enjoy it.

Regards,
Colin Twiggs