Author: ColinTwiggs

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JSE & Bovespa threaten breakout

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index broke resistance at 33000 to signal a primary advance. Target for the initial advance is 35000*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of medium-term selling pressure; we should wait for confirmation from a retracement that respects the new support level. The indicator is rising in the long-term, however, indicating buying support.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 33 + ( 33 – 31 ) = 35

Brazil’s Bovespa index is testing resistance at 60000. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Again, we need to wait for retracement to confirm the breakout.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 55 ) = 65

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Canada: TSX60

The TSX 60 broke its descending long-term trendline, suggesting that the index is forming a base. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure. Breakout above 720 would signal the start of a primary up-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 640 ) = 800

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Australia and Asia

Australia’s ASX 200 index continues to range between 3850 and 4350. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects medium-term selling pressure, but the long-term rise reflects buying support. Failure of support at 4000 would suggest another test of 3850, but only breakout from the range will offer a clear long-term signal.

ASX 200 Index


China’s Shanghai Composite index respected resistance at 2300, suggesting a decline to 2000*. Deep negative values on 63-day Twiggs Momentum are evidence of a strong primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2300 – 2150 ) = 2000

India’s Nifty Index is headed for a test of the upper border of its downward trend channel at 5200. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero continues to indicate a strong primary down-trend.

S&P/NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5600 + ( 6600 – 5600 ) = 5100

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell sharply Monday to test short-term support at 8360. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Breakout below 8200 would warn of another primary decline, with a target of 7400*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9000 – 8200 ) = 7400

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European markets

The FTSE 100 is testing resistance at 5750 but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Respect of resistance would suggest another test of primary support at 5050. Upward breakout is less likely, but would indicate an advance to 6300*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5100 ) = 6300

The DAX is testing resistance at 6400. Breakout would indicate an advance to 7400*, but reversal of  below the rising trendline — or 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero — would warn of another test of primary support at 5000.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 5400 ) = 7400

Italy’s MIB Index is more hesitant than the DAX. Breakout above 17000 would signal a primary advance, but failure of support at 13000 would indicate a decline to 9000*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of increased selling pressure.

FTSE MIB Index

* Target calculation: 13 – ( 17 – 13 ) = 9

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq test resistance

The S&P 500 index is testing resistance at 1300. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend with a target of 1450* for the initial advance. Mild bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure, however, and reversal below the rising trendline would indicate another test of primary support at 1160.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 is also testing resistance, at 2400. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow both suggest an upward breakout, which would offer a target of 2800* for the initial advance.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 2800

Treasury yields are falling, indicating a flight to safety. Uncertainty in Europe and China is likely to hurt the market and we should only accept bull signals if they have strong confirmation.
10-Year Treasury Yield

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Agenda: Greek Situation Is Most Serious of Latest Euro Crisis – WSJ.com

Friday provided the markets with two reminders that the euro crisis hasn’t gone away. The decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade nine members of the euro zone, including France being stripped of its Triple-A rating and Italy being downgraded to Triple-B, had been widely expected.

But the collapse of the negotiations between Greece and its private-sector bondholders over a voluntary write-down of its debt wasn’t anticipated. The International Institute of Finance, which is negotiating on behalf of bondholders, said it hadn’t been able to agree a deal.

via Agenda: Greek Situation Is Most Serious of Latest Euro Crisis – WSJ.com.

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Matt Ridley on Ice Ages and Man-Made Warming – WSJ.com

The entire 10,000-year history of civilization has happened in an unusually warm interlude in the Earth’s recent history. Over the past million years, it has been as warm as this or warmer for less than 10% of the time, during 11 brief episodes known as interglacial periods.

…..Our own interglacial period has followed previous ones in having an abrupt beginning and a sharp peak, followed by slow cooling. The question is whether recent warming is a temporary blip before the expected drift into glacial conditions, or whether humankind’s impact on the atmosphere has now reversed the cooling trend.

via Matt Ridley on Ice Ages and Man-Made Warming | Mind & Matter – WSJ.com.

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Forex: EUR, AUD and CAD

The euro respected resistance at $1.32 in December, confirming a primary decline to $1.22*. Falling 63-day Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal.

Euro: EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

Canada’s Loonie broke its descending trendline to suggest a base is forming, as oil prices strengthen. Breakout above $1.01 would indicate a primary advance to the August 2011 high of $1.06.

Canadian Dollar: CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 1.07

The Aussie Dollar is also strengthening. Breakout above $1.04 would signal another attempt at $1.075. In the long-term, breach of $1.075 would signal a primary advance to 1.20*.

Australian Dollar: AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

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Crude oil and commodities threaten breakout

Brent crude has strengthened despite Libya coming back on-stream. Heightened tensions with Iran have increased support above $100/barrel. Breakout above $115 would signal the start of a new up-trend — not a good sign for the global economy. In the long term, recovery above $125 would offer a target of $150*.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150

The CRB Commodities Index has also found support: at 295. Penetration of the descending trendline would suggest that a base is forming, while recovery above 325 would indicate a fresh primary advance.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 325 + ( 325 – 295 ) = 355

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Spot gold finds support

Spot gold found support at $1500/ounce. Failure of this level would confirm a primary down-trend. Breach of the descending trendline would indicate that a base is forming, while recovery above $1800 would indicate a fresh primary advance to $2300*. We are unlikely to witness another bull-trend, however, unless the Fed introduces QE3.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1500 ) = 2300

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