Charles Munger: A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business | The Big Picture

In a bureaucracy, you think the work is done when it goes out of your in-basket into somebody else’s in-basket. But, of course, it isn’t. It’s not done until AT&T delivers what it’s supposed to deliver. So you get big, fat, dumb, unmotivated bureaucracies.

They also tend to become somewhat corrupt. In other words, if I’ve got a department and you’ve got a department and we kind of share power running this thing, there’s sort of an unwritten rule: “If you won’t bother me, I won’t bother you and we’re both happy.” So you get layers of management and associated costs that nobody needs. Then, while people are justifying all these layers, it takes forever to get anything done. They’re too slow to make decisions and nimbler people run circles around them.

The constant curse of scale is that it leads to big, dumb bureaucracy—which, of course, reaches its highest and worst form in government where the incentives are really awful. That doesn’t mean we don’t need governments—because we do. But it’s a terrible problem to get big bureaucracies to behave.

via Charles Munger: A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business | The Big Picture.

Yen breaks 5-year trend

The US Dollar broke its 5-year down-trend against the Japanese Yen. Penetration of the descending trendline from 2007 indicates that a bottom is forming. Breakout above resistance at ¥80 would signal the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial target of ¥86, confirming the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

Forex: Euro slides on Greek turmoil

The euro retreated below $1.32 USD; failure of support at $1.30 would indicate another test of primary support at $1.26. And breakout below primary support would signal a decline to $1.20*.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20

Pound Sterling is retreating on the weekly chart. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of another test of primary support at $1.53.

Pound Sterling

Canada’s Loonie respected resistance at $1.01 and is likely to re-test its rising trendline. Recovery above $1.01 is uncertain but would signal a primary up-trend.

Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie Dollar similarly respected resistance at $1.08 and is likely to test medium-term support and the rising trendline at $1.04. Breakout above $1.08 would indicate a primary up-trend; confirmed if 63-day Momentum respects the zero line (from above).

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

The US Dollar found support at R7.50 South African Rand. A rally that respects the descending trendline, however, would warn of continuation of the primary down-trend. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

US Dollar/South African Rand

The greenback is strengthening against the Japanese Yen. Breach of the descending trendline indicates that a bottom is forming. And breakout above ¥80 would signal the start of a primary up-trend — confirming the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.

Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84

Commodities: Crude rises on Iran tensions

Brent Crude is advancing towards its target of $130/barrel* after breaking resistance at $115. Respect of the zero line by the last trough on 63-day Twiggs Momentum strengthens the bull signal.

Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 115 + ( 115 – 100 ) = 130

The broader CRB Commodities Index breached its descending trendline but continues to display uncertainty. Breakout above 325 would signal a primary up-trend with an initial target of 350*. A stronger dollar is likely to retard commodity prices.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 325 + ( 325 – 300 ) = 350

Gold hesitates on dollar strength

Spot gold displays a small flag consolidation, suggesting continuation of the advance to test $1800/ounce. Breach of the descending trendline indicates that the down-trend has ended and breakout above $1800 would signal an advance to $2100*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal. A strengthening dollar, however, would weaken demand for gold.
Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100

The US Dollar Index found support above 78. Recovery above 80 would indicate another test of resistance at 82. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong up-trend. Breakout above 82 would confirm the target of 85*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

ASX 200 breaks support

The ASX 200 broke through support at 4220 on the hourly chart, signaling a correction to test primary support at 4040. Retracement to test the new resistance level is weak and follow-through below intra-day support at 4180 would confirm the signal.

Index

Default Therapy

Why not let an insolvent debtor default and invite capitalism to do its work?

That’s the process an Austro-Hungarian economist by the name of Joseph Schumpeter used to call “creative destruction”…and it has worked pretty well over the years, believe it or not…….

Consider the divergent fates of two countries that came face-to-face with a financial crisis in 1990. One of these countries is still merely muddling along…20 years later! The other country is flourishing.

That’s because one of these countries, Japan, responded to its crisis by coddling its crippled corporations and by throwing monumental sums of taxpayer dollars at failing financial institutions. The other country, Brazil, responded to its crisis with relatively savage measures. It defaulted on its debts, devalued its currency (more than once) and did not stand in the way of corporate failure. Brazil’s responses were far from perfect, but they were much less imperfect than were Japan’s……

Too bad for Japan. Its economy has muddled along for two decades, while its stock market has produced a loss of 2% per year across that entire 20-year timeframe. By contrast, the Brazilian economy and stock market have both boomed during the last two decades, despite some very serious bumps along the way.

via Default Therapy.

Greek death spiral accelerates – Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: This is what a death spiral looks like. It is what can happen if you join a fixed exchange system, then take out very large debts in what amounts to a foreign currency, and then have simultaneous monetary and fiscal contraction imposed upon you.

Germany discovered this on the Gold Standard when it racked up external debt from 1925 to 1929 (owed to American bankers) in much the same way as Greece has done.

When the music stopped – ie. when the Fed raised rates from 1928 onwards – Germany blew apart in much the same way as Greece is blowing apart. This is not a cultural or anthropological issue. It is the mechanical consequence of capital flows into a country that cannot handle it, as Germany could not handle it in the late 1920s.

via Greek death spiral accelerates – Telegraph Blogs.

QE3 – Wall Street’s biggest fantasy? | WSJ.com

WSJ.com – Mean Street

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Steven Russolillo discusses the prospects of another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve based on recent comments by Dallas Fed Chief Richard Fisher.