Author: ColinTwiggs

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UK & Europe: Selling pressure

The FTSE 100 is running into resistance at 6000 — note the short weekly candles and bearish divergence on (medium-term) 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Expect retracement to test the new band of support between 5600 and 5700. The primary trend, however, remains upward; so the target of 6100 is unchanged.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX has also run into medium-term selling pressure, but remains in a strong primary up-trend with a target of 7500*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 5500 ) = 7500

Italy’s MIB Index is not yet in a primary up-trend, but narrow consolidation below 17000 suggests an upward breakout. Medium-term selling pressure is evident, however, even on the long-term 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, and failure of support at 16,000 would warn of another test of the primary band at 13,000 – 13,500.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 14000 ) = 20000

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Singapore SGX: Top Momentum stocks

Yoma (Z59) breakout above 0.50 would signal another advance. Both Twiggs Money Flow and Momentum are bullish.

Yoma Strategic Holdings

I also like the look of Sky Holdings, Interra Resources and Ezion Holdings:

Sky Holdings
Interra Resources
Ezion Holdings

Although Ezion faces some profit-taking at 1.00 that could slow a further advance.

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Canada TSX: Top Momentum stocks

Interesting new stocks on my Top Momentum stock screen (Incredible Charts #48894):

Northern Graphite (daily chart)

Northern Graphite

Atna Resources (weekly chart)

Atna Resources

Connacher Oil & Gas (weekly)

Connacher Oil & Gas

Imperial Metals (weekly)

Imperial Metals

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Canada: TSX 60 breakout

The TSX 60 broke through resistance at 720, signaling a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but target for the advance is 790*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790

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India & Singapore retrace

India’s Sensex index retraced to test support at 18000 on the daily chart. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure; respect of the zero line would suggest a strong primary up-trend. Respect of 17,000 on the index chart would also be a bullish sign.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

Singapore’s Straits Times Index (weekly chart) also shows retracement. Expect a test of support at 2900. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would confirm a strong up-trend, with an initial target of 3200*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

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Nasdaq approaches 2650 target, S&P500 finds resistance

Nasdaq 100 index is approaching its target of 2650*. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 2400. Respect would confirm a strong up-trend despite the lower high (bearish divergence) on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650

The S&P 500 encountered short-term resistance at 1370, indicated by declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, but the primary up-trend appears healthy. Retracement that respects support at 1300 would signal trend strength — even better if we have a narrow consolidation below the resistance level.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

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Prepare for a golden age of gas – FT.com

Martin Wolf:

In its World Energy Outlook 2011, the IEA remarks that “[i]n all the scenarios examined … natural gas has a higher share of the global energy mix in 2035 than it does today”. Under its “golden age” scenario, gas demand grows by 2 per cent a year between 2009 and 2035. Even under a more cautious scenario, which it calls “new policies”, demand grows at 1.7 per cent a year or by a total of 55 per cent over this period. As a result, gas substitutes for other fuels, particularly in electricity generation and heating. Gas also has substantial potential as a fuel for transportation. Overall, argues BP in its latest Energy Outlook, by 2030 gas might come to rival coal and oil as a primary energy source.

via Prepare for a golden age of gas – FT.com.

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Treating China as an enemy – Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: China remains poor, with a per capita income of just $7,000. It faces the classic “middle income trap” in a few years time when the low-hanging fruit of catch-up growth is exhausted. The country will soon have to make the switch from copying technology to cutting-edge invention, the challenge that has defeated so many economies over the years and made a mockery of so many extrapolation curves.

As the World Bank warns in its latest report (out Monday), China risks coming down to earth with a thud unless it breaks the state stranglehold on investment.

My own guess is that China will go through a nasty little hangover as it purges toxins from the great credit boom of the last five years, before settling down to more pedestrian growth rates. It will be a big economic power, but not so vast it upturns the whole global system. It risks becoming old before it is rich.

via Treating China as an enemy – Telegraph Blogs.

Comment:~ The main threat from China is not military but economic. It has the potential to destabilize the global economy through its aggressive currency/trade policies. If the major players are able to resolve this, we are likely to see a scale-back of current tensions.

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