ColinTwiggs, Author at the patient investor

November 25, 2013

FTSE flags further gains

Upward breakout from the recent flag formation on the FTSE 100 would signal an advance to the December 1999 high of 6950/7000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure, but the specter of a long-term bearish divergence remains. Expect strong resistance at 7000. Reversal below 6600 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support and the rising trendline at 6400.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

Narrow consolidation on Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 above support at 3000 is also a bullish sign. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 3100 would confirm an advance to 3500*. Reversal below 3000 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the rising trendline.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500

Germany’s DAX is heading towards its target of 9500*, with steeply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signaling strong medium-term buying pressure. Breach of the latest trendline is not likely, would indicate a correction to support at 8500.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

November 25, 2013

TSX advance

Canada’s TSX 60 respected support at 772/775, indicating an advance to 800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects selling pressure during the recent consolidation. A trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but reversal below zero would warn of a correction — as would breach of short-term support at 772.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX at historic lows signals a bullish outlook for stocks.

TSX 60 VIX

November 25, 2013

Dow leads US climb

Dow Jones Industrial Average is advancing strongly, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 16600*. Retracement to test the new support level remains likely, however, and respect would confirm the advance. Reversal below 15700 is unlikely, but would test the secondary rising trendline around 15500.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at the target of 1800*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1750 would warn of a correction to the secondary trendline at 1700. Short corrections are indicative of strong buying pressure.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues below 15, indicating low market risk.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with higher troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Reversal below the latest trendline would warn of a correction. Short corrections and narrow consolidations reflect an accelerating trend, or blow-off. Steep gains, however, almost inevitably end with a sharp fall.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550

November 22, 2013

Why does QE taper spook the market if it will have no real impact?

Question received from CG about the impact of QE and Fed taper:

I’m not arguing against the data presented on the graph, but if true that most of the QE bond purchases are being parked by banks in interest-bearing, excess reserve deposits at the Fed, why do the markets get spooked every time there are whispers that the Fed is going to reduce QE?

The comment CG is referring to:

Currently, there is evidence of expansive monetary policy from the Fed, but the overall impact on the financial markets is muted. Most of the QE bond purchases are being parked by banks in interest-bearing, excess reserve deposits at the Fed. The chart below compares Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) to the increase in excess reserve deposits at the Fed.

A classic placebo effect, the Fed is well aware that the major benefit of their quantitative easing program is psychological: there is little monetary impact on the markets.

My answer:
The markets have no real reason to fear a QE taper. I think this is more psychological than physical. The current mind-set is:

If the Fed begins to taper, that marks the end of the bull market in bonds. Rising bond yields and higher long-term interest rates may slow industry investment and recovery of the housing market and this would be bad for the economy.

In other words, they still have a bearish outlook. At some point they will shift to the counter-argument:

QE taper and rising interest rates indicate Fed faith in the recovery and are a bullish sign for stocks. It also means the economy is reverting to a sustainable path.

The bottom-line is that markets are driven as much by emotion as by logic.

November 22, 2013

S&P 500 Momentum and Economic Outlook

This an example of the monthly updates from the new Research & Investment joint venture between Incredible Charts and Porter Capital.

S&P 500 Momentum – October 2013

Latest Performance

S&P 500 Momentum is based on Porter Capital’s successful ASX200 Prime Momentum strategy which returned +38.43% for the 12 months ended 31st October 2013. Actual historical performance for the S&P 500 is not yet available.

Sectors

The portfolio includes the usual technology, Internet retail and biotechnology sectors but also insurance, airlines, and oil & gas exploration.

Stock Performance

Star performer Netflix (NFLX) climbed from $80 to above $350 over the last year, breaking its 2011 high of $300. Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate strong buying pressure.

GILD

Stock Selections

Hold

We continue to hold the following stocks:

NFLX

New Additions

There are four new additions this month:

GILD

Biotech newcomer Gilead Sciences (GILD) climbed from $20 to above $70 over the last three years. Short corrections indicate buying pressure and respect of support at $64 would signal a fresh advance. Twiggs Money Flow troughs high above zero also suggest strong buying pressure.

GILD

Disposals

Stocks replaced are:

REGN (SELL)
BSX (SELL)
GT (SELL)
CELG (SELL)

Regneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) rose from $30 to $300 over the last three years, but encountered strong resistance at $300/$320 and has fallen outside our top ten ranking. Breach of support at $270 and the rising trendline would warn that the primary trend is weakening. Recovery above $320, however, would most likely see it regain its position in the portfolio.

TRIP

Market Outlook

Market Filters

Our market filters indicate low to moderate risk and we maintain full exposure to equities.

General Outlook

As global growth recovers we expect equity markets to be buoyed by improvements in both earnings and dividends, with strong momentum over the quarter. There is much discussion in the media as to whether various markets are in a “bubble”. Little attention is devoted to the fact that bubbles can last for several years, and sometimes even decades. The main driver of both stock market bubbles and real estate bubbles is debt. Anna Schwartz, co-author with Milton Friedman of A Monetary History of the United States (1963) described the relationship to the Wall Street Journal:

If you investigate individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset. The particular asset varied from one boom to another. But the basic underlying propagator was too-easy monetary policy and too-low interest rates …..

Currently, there is evidence of expansive monetary policy from the Fed, but the overall impact on the financial markets is muted. Most of the QE bond purchases are being parked by banks in interest-bearing, excess reserve deposits at the Fed. The chart below compares Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) to the increase in excess reserve deposits at the Fed.

US Household Debt

A classic placebo effect, the Fed is well aware that the major benefit of their quantitative easing program is psychological: there is little monetary impact on the markets.

Corporate debt (green line below) is expanding rapidly as corporations take advantage of the opportunity to issue new debt at low interest rates, but household debt (red) is still shrinking.

US Household Debt

There are pockets of concern, like the rapid recovery in NYSE margin debt, but risk of a Dotcom-style stock market bubble or a 2002/2007 housing bubble is low while household debt contracts.

Regards,

Colin Twiggs

Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but we rather have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.

~ Aristotle

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November 21, 2013

Stronger dollar drives Euro & Aussie lower

The Euro continues to test support at $1.3350 against the greenback after a false break above the February high of $1.37. Breach of support would warn of a bull trap, and follow-through below $1.31 and the rising trendline would signal a reversal. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to indicate a primary up-trend; a trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Recovery above $1.37 is less likely, but would signal a fresh advance.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.34 ) = 1.42

Sterling is testing resistance at €1.20. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests an up-trend. Breakout above €1.20 would signal an advance to €1.23*. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would suggest another test of €1.1650.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.20 + ( 1.20 – 1.17 ) = 1.23

The Greenback is headed for another test of resistance at ¥101. The bullish ascending triangle suggests an upward breakout with a target of ¥108. Breakout above ¥101 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum descended steeply over the length of the consolidation, but completion of a trough above zero (recovery above say 5%) would indicate a primary up-trend. Reversal below support at ¥96 is now unlikely.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 1.08

Recovery of Canada’s Loonie above $0.96 would complete a second higher trough against its US neighbor. Breakout above $0.9750 would signal a primary up-trend, but breach of primary support at $0.9450 is as likely and would signal continuation of the primary down-trend. Another 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would also indicate a down-trend.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar is testing medium-term support at $0.93*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the down-trend. Breach of support at $0.93 would confirm, signaling a test of primary support at $0.89. Recovery above $0.9450 is less likely, but would a rally to $0.9750. The RBA needs a weaker Aussie Dollar, without lowering interest rates, and will do all it can to assist the decline.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.975 + ( 0.975 – 0.95 ) = 1.00

The Aussie continues to test support at $1.12 against its Kiwi neighbor. Rising Momentum suggests another rally to $1.16, confirmed if resistance at $1.14 is broken. But breakout below $1.12 would signal a decline to $1.08*. Breakout above $1.16 would complete a triple-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.12 – ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.08 OR 1.16 + ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.20

November 20, 2013

Rising interest rates drive gold through support

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes followed through above 2.75, indicating a fresh primary advance, with a target of 3.50 percent*. Breakout above 3.00 percent would confirm. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero (recovery above say 30%) would strengthen the signal. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 2.50.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 3.50

Dollar Index

Rising interest rates would strengthen the dollar. The Dollar Index rallied off support at 79 on the monthly chart, suggesting a test of 84. Breach of the rising trendline, however, still warns of trend weakness, and 13-week Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line (from below) would strengthen the signal.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79 – ( 84 – 79 ) = 74 or 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89

Gold

Rising interest rates and a stronger dollar weaken gold. Spot gold broke support at $1250/ounce, signaling a primary down-trend. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero strengthens the signal. Follow-through below the next support level, the June low of $1200, would confirm. Recovery above $1260 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1250 – ( 1350 – 1250 ) = 1150

Crude Oil

Nymex crude is undergoing a strong correction. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum crossing to below zero warns of reversal to a primary down-trend; a peak below the zero line would strengthen the signal. Expect strong support at $85/$86 per barrel. Respect of support would mean that Nymex remains in a primary (albeit weak) up-trend. Diverging Brent crude reflects both a strengthening European recovery and continued supply threats in the Middle East.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodity Prices

Copper prices, bellwether for the global economy, respected resistance at $7400/$7500 per tonne and are heading for another test of the 2011 lows at $6800/tonne. Downward breakout would signal a primary down-trend, as would completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero. Recovery above the descending trendline would be a bullish sign for the global economy, while breach of support at $6800 would be bearish.

Copper

China is a primary driver of commodity prices and a strengthening Shanghai Composite Index has slowed the fall in commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index broke primary support at 124, but is consolidating in a narrow range below the former support level. Recovery above 124 would be a bullish sign, while follow-through below 122 would indicate a decline to 114*. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would also suggest a continuing down-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 124 – ( 134 – 124 ) = 114

November 20, 2013

Asia rallies while ASX smoulders

India’s Sensex found support at 20200 before rallying to test resistance at 21200. Breakout above its 2007 and 2010 highs at 21000 would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 20200 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke through resistance at 15000, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect of 15000 is unlikely, but would confirm the primary up-trend, with a long-term target of 17500*. Reversal below the rising trendline would test primary support at 13200, warning of trend weakness.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

Singapore’s Straits Times Index respected support at 3000 on the monthly chart, but is struggling to make an impression on long-term resistance at 3300. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Breakout above 3300 is unlikely at present, but would signal a primary advance to 3600*.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at its upper trend channel. Follow-through above 2200 would indicate the correction is over and a test of 2270 is likely. A down-swing to test the lower channel is just as likely, however, and would indicate continuation of the correction. Completion of a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero (say > 15%) would signal medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 2270 may be some way off but would signal a primary up-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng broke resistance at 23500, signaling a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 24000 would confirm, offering a medium-term target of 24500 and a long-term target of 28000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 23500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 22500 or the primary trendline.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 24000 + ( 24000 – 20000 ) = 28000

The ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 5300. Penetration of the rising trendline, would warn of a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure.

ASX 200

The monthly chart shows a correction would be likely to test the secondary rising trendline around 5000. Recovery above 5400 is unlikely at present, but would signal an advance to 5600*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5300 ) = 5600

November 18, 2013

DAX leads European advance

Germany’s DAX broke through resistance at 9000, sharply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signaling strong medium-term buying pressure. Target for the current advance is 9500*. Reversal below 9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the primary trendline between 8000 and 8500.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing support at its 2009/2011 high of 3000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Respect of support at 3000 is likely and follow-through above 3100 would confirm an advance to 3500*.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500

Spain’s Madrid General Index found medium-term resistance at 1000. A correction to test support at 900 is likely, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow falling sharply. Respect of 900 would suggest a healthy primary up-trend. Reversal below 900 is unlikely, but would indicate the primary trend is weakening.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test support at 6600. Long tails indicate short-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 6800 would indicate an advance to the December 1999 high of 6950/7000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure, but the specter of a long-term bearish divergence remains. Expect strong resistance at 7000. Reversal below 6600 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 6400.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

November 18, 2013

Canada: TSX 60 follows through

Canada’s TSX 60 followed through above 775 after a short consolidation, signaling an advance to 800* — close to the 2011 high of 820. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below support at 740 is most unlikely.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX retreated below 15, indicating low market risk.

TSX 60 VIX