Dow Jones Shanghai index also exerts a positive influence, with a strong breakout above medium-term resistance at 271. Resistance at 284 is some way off, but would complete a double bottom reversal.
Who is buying Australian stocks?
Despite a broad sell-off across global markets, the ASX 200 has stood firm, rallying into the close for the last two days. Low volumes indicate an absence of sellers, but expect strong resistance at 5450/5460. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of another test of support at 5300 and possibly a stronger correction. Breakout above 5450/5460 remains as likely and would signal an advance to 5600*. Primary support at 5050 does not at this stage appear threatened and the index remains in an up-trend.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5300 ) = 5600
A rising Aussie Dollar may be contributing to ASX resilience. Performance over the last quarter looks a lot stronger if measured in US Dollars or Japanese Yen. Breakout of the Aussie Dollar above $0.93 suggests a rally to $0.95*.
* Target calculation: 0.93 + ( 0.93 – 0.91 ) = 0.95
The weekly chart presents a more complete picture. Breach of the descending trendline and recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero (after a strong bullish divergence) both suggest that a bottom is forming, but we are a long way from commencing an up-trend.
Asian stocks fall but ASX 200 resilient
The Asia-Pacific region reacted to Friday’s sell-off in US markets, with the Nikkei and Hang Seng currently down 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. The Shanghai exchange is closed for a public holiday, while India’s DJ15 is down 0.67%. The ASX 200, however, rallied towards the close, losing only 0.17%.
The monthly chart of Japan’s Nikkei 225 continues to display a large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning of long-term selling pressure. Reversal below 14000 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 15000 is as likely, however, and would indicate another advance.
* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 14000 ) = 16000
A monthly chart shows the Shanghai Composite Index on the flight path for a soft landing. Successive falls over the past 5 years have all exceeded the previous trough by roughly 200 points and this seems unlikely to change for the foreseeable future. The problem with a managed descent is that it is likely to endure for a lot longer than a short sharp crash. Breach of primary support at 1950 would therefore offer a target of 1800.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index on the other hand displays a large bullish ascending triangle. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero indicates buying pressure Breakout above 24000 would signal a primary advance. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend.
* Long-term target calculation: 24000 + ( 24000 – 17000 ) = 31000
India’s Sensex encountered resistance at 22500 and is likely to retrace to test 22000. Respect would signal an advance to 23000*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of short/medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 21500 is unlikely, but would indicate another correction.
* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000
The ASX 200 proved surprisingly resilient, rallying toward the close. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure, but expect strong resistance at 5450/5460. Breakout above 5450/5460 would signal an advance to 5600*. Respect of resistance or a false break, however, would warn of another test of support at 5300 and possibly a stronger correction. Primary support at 5050 does not at this stage appear threatened and the index remains in an up-trend.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5300 ) = 5600
ASX 200 VIX below 12 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.
Europe rebounds
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke through resistance at 3180, signaling an advance to 3350*. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would confirm strong buying pressure. Reversal below 3150 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.
* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 2950 ) = 3350
DAX breakout above 9800 would signal an advance to 10600* — though there is bound to be some resistance at 10000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the descending trendline would suggest that medium-term selling pressure is easing. Reversal below 9400 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 9000.
DAX Volatility at 15 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
The Footsie is testing medium-term resistance at 6700. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates healthy (long-term) buying pressure. Reversal below the rising trendline is unlikely, but would test primary support at 6400. Breakout above 6850 is not yet likely, but would offer a target of 7200*.
* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200
Canada: TSX 60 resistance holds
Canada’s TSX 60 continues to test resistance at 820. After two false breakouts, follow-through above 830 would confirm, signaling an advance to 850*. Divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of continued selling pressure. Reversal below 810 remains less likely, but would warn of a (bull trap) correction to 770.
* Target calculation: 810 + ( 810 – 770 ) = 850
TSX 60 VIX remains low, at 10. Typical of a strong bull market.
Market sell-off despite improved job numbers
The market experienced a strong sell-off Friday, despite signs that the Winter slowdown in job creation is over. Nelson Schwartz at the New York Times writes:
The latest numbers are likely to be revised significantly as more information flows into the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even so, they suggest that the economy is not achieving what economists call escape velocity, something that policy makers have long sought. Neither is it falling into the rut some pessimists feared was developing early in 2014.
The S&P 500 retreated below its latest support level of 1880. Follow-through below 1840 would signal a correction, while respect of support would suggest an advance to 1950*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure and reversal below zero would strengthen the signal. An early correction (without a decent advance above the January high) would be a bearish sign, indicating that long-term sellers outnumber buyers.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 14 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.
The Nasdaq 100 indicates long-term selling pressure, with a sharp fall following bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Breach of the (secondary) rising trendline and support at 3550 warns of a correction to primary support at 3400. Recovery above 3650 is unlikely, but would suggest a bear trap.
* Target calculation: 3750 + ( 3750 – 3550 ) = 3950
The primary trend remains upward and none of our market filters indicate signs of stress.
ASX more tentative
The ASX 200 rally appears more tentative than North American markets. Expect strong resistance at 5450/5460. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero, however, indicates a healthy long-term trend. Breakout above 5450/5460 would signal an advance to 5800*. Breach of the rising trendline, however, seems as likely, and would warn of another test of support at 5300 and possibly a stronger correction.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
ASX 200 VIX below 12 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
Canada: TSX 60 advances
Canada’s TSX 60 broke through resistance at 820, signaling an advance to 850*. Sharp divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is testimony to the level of selling encountered at the resistance level. Completion of a trough high above zero would signal a strong up-trend. Reversal below 810 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.
* Target calculation: 810 + ( 810 – 770 ) = 850
TSX 60 VIX is exceptionally low at 9, typical of a strong bull market.
S&P 500 breakout
Narrow consolidation on the S&P 500 weekly chart and completion of a shallow correction on the Nasdaq 100 would suggest a strong up-trend.
The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1875/1880, signaling an advance to 1950*. Layering above 1850 throughout March reflected strong selling, with bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warning of medium-term selling pressure, but upward breakout indicates that buyers have prevailed. Reversal below 1875 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap — as would a peak below the descending trendline on Twiggs Money Flow.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
The Nasdaq 100 found support at 3550 and the (secondary) ascending trendline. Recovery above 3700 would confirm another advance, but continued bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would warn of persistent selling pressure.
* Target calculation: 3750 + ( 3750 – 3550 ) = 3950
Gold losing its luster
Inflation pressures are easing and Elliot Clarke summarizes Westpac’s outlook for US inflation as follows:
This week we decompose the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator to assess what inflation pressures currently exist and how they are likely to develop. The conclusion is that the inflation picture argues for an extended period of extremely accommodative policy settings and it may even serve to delay the timing of the initial interest rate increase well beyond the timeframe currently envisaged by markets.
Soft treasury yields, a weak dollar and weaker gold price tend to support this view.
Interest Rates and the Dollar
The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is ranging in a narrow band between 2.60 percent and 2.80 percent. Breakout above 2.80 would indicate an advance to 3.50 percent* — confirmed if there is follow-through above 3.00 percent — but declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of weakness. Breach of primary support at 2.50 percent is as likely and would signal a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 3.50
The Dollar Index is testing medium-term resistance at 80.50. Breakout would suggest that a bottom is forming, but only recovery above 81.50 would signal a trend change. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero, however, is typical of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at 79.00 would signal a decline to 76.50*.
* Target calculation: 79.0 – ( 81.5 – 79.0 ) = 76.5
Gold and Silver
Silver failed to imitate gold’s performance in the first quarter and is headed for a test of primary support at $19/ounce. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum likewise failed to cross to above zero, suggesting continuation of the primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $16, while respect of support would test resistance at $22/ounce.
Spot gold is undergoing a strong correction, having breached the rising trendline and support at $1320/ounce. The outlook remains bullish, but breach of primary support by Silver or continued decline of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would negate this. Failure of primary support at $1200 is unlikely, but would offer a target of $1000/ounce*.
* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000
Copper
Copper is a commodity rather than a precious metal, but is also used as a store of value. At present, copper is testing long-term support at $6800/tonne. Follow-through below $6600 would signal continuation of the primary down-trend to $6000/tonne*. Recovery above the descending trendline (at $7000) is unlikely, but would suggest that a bottom is forming.
* Target calculation: 6750 – ( 7500 – 6750 ) = 6000