Dow 1929 hoax re-visited

Some readers still believe there is a strong resemblance between the Dow 1929 crash and the current Dow Jones Industrial Average. I thought we had buried that hoax.

Dow Jones

Take a careful look at the two scales on the right of the chart. The scale of the 1929 Dow shows a gain of roughly 200 to 375, or 88% in percentage terms. The scale of the current Dow shows a gain of 12000 to 16500, or roughly 38%. In short, the scales are not proportionate and have been adjusted to fit the two curves.

Next, take a look at the time frame of the chart, 1928 to 1929, and compare it to charts with a longer time frame. The curve in the 10-year period leading up to the crash bears no resemblance at all to the last 10 years (2004 – 2014) of the Dow. The chart time frame has also been cropped to display the best fit.

With this kind of careful analysis we could show a close correlation between the 1929 Dow and Justin Bieber’s record sales ……..or crop yields in Iowa.
Dow Jones

Norway teaches Britain how to choke house booms without killing economy – Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports the resounding success of Norway’s central bank in using macroprudential tools to take the steam out of a housing bubble:

if the Bank [BOE] wishes to contain credit, it should learn from Norway’s success. Instead of raising rates, it has used “macroprudential” tools. It cut the loan-to-value ceiling on mortgages from 90pc to 85pc. It forced the banks to raise to capital buffers further.

The Norges Bank has recommended a 1pc counter-cyclical buffer based on its view of what constitutes a safe level of credit growth.

Contrary to claims that these tools never work, they worked splendidly, as you can see from this chart today from HSBC’s David Bloom.

Norway/UK House Prices

The RBNZ adopted similar measures and it is puzzling why the RBA, which faces an equal threat, is not doing the same.

Read more at Norway teaches Britain how to choke house booms without killing economy – Telegraph Blogs.

Ukraine crisis offers lessons in how to handle China’s ambitions

Chilling analysis by Simon Leitch of the use of force by Russia and China to achieve political objectives:

Because China and Russia are major powers with nuclear weapons, dangerous conventional forces and economic leverage, states seeking to deter them from territorial challenges lack credible threats. To address this they must learn the Cold War lessons of manipulating risk or forfeit the initiative to opponents.

This is a high-stakes game of chicken which could encourage smaller states to pursue their own nuclear deterrent and indulge in aggressive, irrational, North-Korean-style behavior in order to discourage aggression from their larger neighbors.

Read more at Ukraine crisis offers lessons in how to handle China's ambitions.

Does evil exist and, if so, are some people just plain evil?

Interesting discussion by Prof Luke Russell (University of Sydney) on the nature of evil:

If someone is an honest person, honesty is part of his or her character. He or she can be relied upon to be honest when it counts. Someone who tells the truth on some occasions might nonetheless be a characteristically dishonest person.

Similarly, not everyone who performs an evil action counts as an evil person. In judging that Hitler was not only an evildoer but an evil person, we assume that evil was part of his character. That’s is not to say we assume he was innately evil, nor that he had no choice but to do evil. Rather, it is to say he came to be strongly disposed to choose to perform evil actions.

Were Hitler, Stalin or Pol Pot innately evil or did they merely commit evil acts? And how do we define an evil act, when violence is an integral part of human/animal nature? What forms of violence are acceptable or unacceptable? Is violence only acceptable in self-defense, in defense of others, or to negate a perceived future threat? Careful study of the factors that motivated Hitler, Stalin and Pol Pot will help us to better understand and protect against future despots. Demonizing despots prevents us from understanding them, leaving us prone to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Read more at Does evil exist and, if so, are some people just plain evil?.

Is the market overpriced? Episode V

In my last post I concluded that the same factors driving rising inequality — new technologies and access to cheap labor through increased globalization — may also be driving a sustainable increase in corporate profits. While we may be understandably wary of “this time is different”, consider the following:

The rise of China as a trading partner over the last two decades.

US Imports from China

Corporate profits at 11% of GNP suggest a new paradigm when compared to the historic (normal) range of 5% to 7%.

Corporate Profits/GNP

The decline in employee compensation as a percentage of corporate value added mirrors the rise in corporate profits.

Employee Compensation/Value Added

And Robert Shiller’s CAPE, normally used to argue that the market is currently overpriced. If we stood in 1994 and looked at the range of CAPE values for the past century, we would no doubt have concluded that a CAPE value greater than 20 indicates the market is overpriced. In the last two decades, the CAPE only briefly dipped below 20 at the height of the global financial crisis. Now pundits argue that a CAPE value greater than 25 indicates the market is overpriced. Something has definitely changed.

Shiller CAPE

Whether the change is sustainable, only time will tell. But one thing is clear. Of the 466 corporations who have so far reported earnings for the first quarter 2014, 77% have either beaten (68%) or met (9%) their estimates. Corporate profits are not in imminent danger of collapse.

Is the market over-priced?

In my last post I concluded that the same factors driving rising inequality — new technologies and access to cheap labor through increased globalization — may also be driving a sustainable increase in corporate profits. While we may be understandably wary of “this time is different”, consider the following:

The rise of China as a trading partner over the last two decades.

US Imports from China

Corporate profits at 11% of GNP suggest a new paradigm when compared to the historic (normal) range of 5% to 7%.

Corporate Profits/GNP

The decline in employee compensation as a percentage of corporate value added mirrors the rise in corporate profits.

Employee Compensation/Value Added

And Robert Shiller’s CAPE, normally used to argue that the market is currently overpriced. If we stood in 1994 and looked at the range of CAPE values for the past century, we would no doubt have concluded that a CAPE value greater than 20 indicates the market is overpriced. In the last two decades, the CAPE only briefly dipped below 20 at the height of the global financial crisis. Now pundits argue that a CAPE value greater than 25 indicates the market is overpriced. Something has definitely changed.

Shiller CAPE

Whether the change is sustainable, only time will tell. But one thing is clear. Of the 466 corporations who have so far reported earnings for the first quarter 2014, 77% have either beaten (68%) or met (9%) their estimates. Corporate profits are not in imminent danger of collapse.

Is the market overpriced? Episode IV

In my last post I said that, with interest rates, tax rates and real wages at historic lows, corporations are likely to make fat profits over the next few years and stocks remain reasonably buoyant. But at least one of these factors can be expected to change.

  1. Recovery of the housing market would cause the Fed to lift interest rates;
  2. Revision of the tax code by a President who can work with both sides of the House; or
  3. A dramatic fall in exchange rates placing upward pressure on wages as manufacturers regain export markets.

What I did not emphasize is that none of the above are likely to occur without a strong economic recovery — and the net effect of any change could well be a boost to corporate earnings.

What also dawned on me after reading The Inequality Puzzle by Larry Summers is that there may be a common thread. The impact of new technologies over the last two decades and access to cheap labor through increased globalization may have created a sustainable increase in corporate profits as a percentage of GNP. Could this time really be different? Only time will tell. I will be watching sales growth and profit margins over the next few years with interest.

Use land taxes to plug budget holes || Macrobusiness

Great post from Unconventional Economist (reproduced with kind permission from Macrobusiness) gets to the heart of the current budget stoush.
Land Taxes

Cross-posted from David Collyer at Prosper Australia

Sometimes, through the smoke and fireworks of the national debate a political commentator sees the path forward and points the way.

Today in the Australian Financial Review, Alan Mitchell takes a far-sighted approach to the crisis provoked by the Abbott government in its attempt to raise and broaden the GST.

The Liberal Party has long been host to the clearest thinkers on the federal system embedded in Australia’s Constitution. Malcolm Fraser tried to unravel the ‘Canberra taxes, States spend’ dilemma that divorces revenue raising from program responsibility.

Civic society demands taxes and spending be tightly linked for accountability and fair scrutiny. Transparency is an essential feature of good government.

The first Abbott/Hockey budget seeks to end $80 billion in federal transfers to the states for health and education. The game plan is to force the states to beg for a tax on food.

Mitchell has a better idea, based on the principle of subsidiarity. This directs that matters ought be handled by the smallest, lowest or least centralised competent authority. Central government should perform only those tasks which cannot be performed at a more immediate or local level. This includes taxation.

State governments have quality tax bases – they just choose to use bad taxes and blame distant mandarins in Canberra for their self-imposed weakness. Voters struggle to see which level of government is responsible for which stuff-up.

Mitchell:

“In fact, they have all the efficient tax bases they need to raise a very large share of the spending now financed by grants from Canberra.

“They just prefer not to use them. They would rather rely on federal money and complain about “vertical fiscal imbalance.”

“Vertical imbalance is largely a myth perpetuated by state politicians who would rather avoid the responsibility for raising their own taxes.

Good can come from this Abbott/Hockey confected crisis. The Premiers are under no obligation to follow Canberra’s lead and destroy their narrow political capital by assuming responsibility for raising and broadening the regressive GST.

The states could instead take up the reforms urged on them by every genuinely independent tax review in living memory.

“Residential land tax also should be revived, and the most convenient way to do that probably is for state governments to gradually transfer more responsibilities to local government.

“Local government land rates based on unimproved property values are an efficient form of land tax, and while no one would enjoy paying higher rates, increased community control of schools, for example, might be quite popular. The availability of reverse mortgages also makes it more feasible for governments to rely more on the taxation of residential land.

State governments are sovereign. They do have choices. Rather than submit to a very bad deal from Canberra, they can reform themselves – and make Prime Minister Abbott responsible for the political costs of good public policy.

Five drivers point to more Australian dollar falls | | MacroBusiness

Greg McKenna (House & Holes) at Macrobusiness explains why the Aussie Dollar is falling:

Recently I posted that MB’s five drivers model for the Australian dollar was pointing lower. The dollar broke lower last night and appears biased for more. The five drivers are:

  • interest rate differentials;
  • global and Australian growth (more recently this has become more nuanced for the Aussie to be more about Chinese growth);
  • investor sentiment and technicals; and
  • the US dollar

Read more at Five drivers point to more Australian dollar falls | | MacroBusiness.

China Japan threaten further decline

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2000. Follow-through below 1990 would signal a decline to 1850*. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would signal medium-term selling pressure. Respect of primary support at 2000, however, would suggest another rally to 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Long-term target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing primary support at 14000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Follow-through below 13900 would confirm a primary down-trend. Respect of primary support is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 15000.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 14000 – ( 15000 – 14000 ) = 13000