India’s Sensex broke through 25000, signaling an advance to 26000*. The primary trend is up and bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow insignificant. Reversal below 24000 is most unlikely. The trend is accelerating, with no end in sight, but investors should bear in mind that blow-offs are often followed by sharp falls.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 16000 ) = 26000
A monthly chart shows Canada’s TSX 60 headed for its 2008 high of 900 after breaking resistance at 820. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow appears secondary, in line with the medium-term consolidation, but a further decline would warn of a correction. Reversal below support at 830 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would indicate that the primary trend is slowing.
The S&P 500 has reached its initial target of 1950*. Steeply rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Retracement to test support at 1925 is expected. Respect of 1920 would suggest a strong up-trend and an advance to 2000.
* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 12 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
The Nasdaq 100 broke resistance at 3700/3750, signaling an advance to 4000*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow again indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 3700 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 3700 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 4000
Overview:
The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes made a false break through primary support at 2.50 percent, before recovering to 2.60 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to suggest weakness. Recovery above 2.80 remains unlikely at present, while reversal below 2.50 would signal a decline to 2.00 percent.
* Target calculation: 2.50 – ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 2.00
The Dollar Index completed a double-bottom reversal, breaking through resistance at 80.50, but last week’s tall shadow (wick) warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 80.00 would indicate a test of primary support at 79.00, but 13-week Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero is bullish and follow-through above 81 would suggest a primary up-trend. Breakout above 81.50 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 81.5 + ( 81.5 – 79.0 ) = 84.0
Low inflation and a strengthening Dollar reduce demand for precious metals. Gold found short-term support at $1240, but reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero is bearish. Expect a test of primary support at $1200. Recovery above $1300 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap and rally to $1400.
By Joseph Stiglitz:
The Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow noted some 60 years ago that rising incomes should largely be attributed not to capital accumulation, but to technological progress – to learning how to do things better. While some of the productivity increase reflects the impact of dramatic discoveries, much of it has been due to small, incremental changes. And, if that is the case, it makes sense to focus attention on how societies learn, and what can be done to promote learning – including learning how to learn.
Stiglitz also includes an observation particularly relevant to Australia, with its shrinking manufacturing sector.
The great economist Kenneth Arrow emphasized the importance of learning by doing. The only way to learn what is required for industrial growth, for example, is to have industry. And that may require ….ensuring that one’s exchange rate is competitive….
Worth Wray quotes Michael Pettis from his 2013 book, Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring, about the future path of China’s debt-laden economy:
Every country that has followed a consumption-repressing, investment-driven growth model like China’s has ended with an unsustainable debt burden caused by wasted debt-financed investment. This has always led to either a debt crisis or a lost decade of very low growth.
We couldn’t agree more. China is no different to Japan or Brazil. Investment-driven growth is only sustainable where investment earns a higher return than the long-term cost of servicing the debt. With diminishing returns on additional investment, returns dwindle and a debt/investment imbalance develops.
Keynesian thinking goes even further, however, suggesting that a fiscal deficit can be used to fund expenditure that does not earn a return, whether public fountains or school libraries. But that is short-term thinking, as Keynes indirectly acknowledged with his response “in the long run we are all dead.” In the long run, as with Japan, the government ends up with a huge pile of public debt and no income from investment assets with which to service the interest, let alone repay the principal.
The effect of a Chinese slow-down is likely to be similar to that of Japan in the early 1990s — just on a larger scale.
Read more at John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline: Can Central Planners Revive China’s Economic Miracle?
By William Pesek:
China’s debt reckoning is coming. Maybe not this quarter or this year, but Chinese President Xi Jinping’s unbridled effort to keep growth from falling below the official 7.5 percent target is cementing China’s fate…..
Why then, with so many clear examples of financial excess leading to ruin, is Xi continuing down this road? Blame it on the ghosts of Tiananmen Square. In the aftermath of the crackdown on student protesters on June 4, 1989, China’s leaders made a bargain with their people: We will make you richer, as long as you no longer dissent. After the crash of Lehman Brothers, the regime had to go to extraordinary lengths to keep up its end of the bargain, pumping up what was already the world’s highest investment rate. In doing so, China itself became a Lehman economy…
Read more at What Is China's Biggest Weakness? – Bloomberg View.
The ASX 200 closed below short-term support at 5500, warning of another test of support at 5400. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term selling pressure. Breakout above 5550 is unlikely in the short-term, but would signal an advance to 5700*.
* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5400 ) = 5700
ASX 200 VIX below 12 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
India’s Sensex found support at 24000. Recovery above 25000 would signal a fresh advance to 26000*. Breach of support is unlikely, but would warn of further correction. The primary trend is up and bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates nothing more than medium-term selling pressure from the present correction.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 16000 ) = 26000
China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test primary support at 2000. Follow-through below 1990 would signal a decline to 1850*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero signals medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 2150 is unlikely, but would complete a triple-bottom reversal.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rebounded off primary support and is testing resistance at 15000. Follow-through above 15200 would signal another test of 16000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above 20% would confirm long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 14000 is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.
The Footsie is again testing resistance at 6850. Follow-through above 6900 would signal an advance to 7200*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 6800 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200
The DAX broke resistance at 9800. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect is likely and follow-through above 10000 would signal an advance to 10500*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the declining trendline suggests that selling pressure is easing. Reversal below 9750/9800 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 9750 + ( 9750 – 9000 ) = 10500
