ColinTwiggs, Author at the patient investor

October 9, 2014

Market lifts despite weak global economy

Minutes of the September FOMC meeting highlight growing unease with the strong US Dollar and a weak global economy. The market read this as “low interest rates” and commenced a buying spree. Last year the quarter-end sell-off ended on October 9th after a 4.2% fall. This year’s correction fell 4.7%, lasting 13 days (so far) compared to 15 days in 2013.

Roberto Dominguez at NY Daily News reports:

“The start of earnings season, with companies including Costco and Alcoa reporting quarterly profits that beat forecasts, also helped push the S&P 500 to its biggest rally in a year.”

While Cullen Roche writes that the US fiscal deficit is shrinking:

“…tax receipts have surged by 7.7% year over year and are up 48% over the last 5 years. And while some of this is due to tax increases the vast majority is due to a healing private sector.”

Bellwether transport stock Fedex continues its primary up-trend, signaling improved economic activity.

Fedex

No doubt boosted by a falling outlook for crude oil.

Nymex and Brent Crude

With positive news about, we should be careful not to forget the Fed’s concern with a weak global economy. While this may drive oil prices even lower, the impact on international sales of major exporters will be closely watched.

S&P 500 recovery above 2000 would indicate the correction is over, while follow-through above 2020 would signal another advance. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal a healthy up-trend. Reversal below 1925 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 1900/1910.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated to 15%, indicating low volatility typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

October 8, 2014

Masculinity and terror: the missing conversation

Prof. David Plummer argues that social changes have left a power vacuum that is open to exploitation:

Boys are spending more time in the sole company of their peers: on street corners, in shopping malls and in their cars.

Instead of growing up with the role models and standards of older, more experienced men, most of their role modelling comes from peer groups. In the absence of alternatives, these groups resort to raw physical masculinity as the yardstick for what masculinity should look like, how boys should behave and who should dominate.

They also develop their own rituals to admit members, some of which are extreme, anti-social and high-risk. It is a willingness to take risks that is considered the hallmark of a “real man”.

October 8, 2014

It’s Time To Drive Russia Bankrupt — Again

Interesting view from Louis Woodhill on Forbes:

Over the past 64 years, real gold prices have averaged $544.91/oz in 4Q2013 dollars, and real crude oil prices have averaged $38.85 bbl. This means that an ounce of gold will typically buy about 14 barrels of oil.

If we fully stabilized the dollar today, we could expect gold prices to fall toward $550/oz, and oil prices to fall toward $40.00/bbl. The huge dollar premiums that gold and oil currently command reflect the value that these easy-to-store commodities have as hedges against dollar instability. If we reformed our monetary control system to guarantee the real value of the dollar, we would eliminate this risk. The risk premiums currently enjoyed by oil and gold would then decline toward zero, as the new monetary system gained credibility.

Are the current gold and oil premiums simply a hedge against an unstable dollar?

October 7, 2014

Anna Politkovskaya & Alexander Litvinenko

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/519381785080524801

Alexander Valterovich Litvinenko (1962 – 2006) was a fugitive officer of the Russian FSB secret service who specialised in tackling organised crime. In November 1998, Litvinenko and several other FSB officers publicly accused their superiors of ordering the assassination of the Russian tycoon and oligarch Boris Berezovsky. Litvinenko was arrested twice before fleeing to the United Kingdom where he was granted asylum.

During his time in London, Litvinenko wrote two books, Blowing Up Russia: Terror from Within and Lubyanka Criminal Group, wherein he accused the Russian secret services of staging the Russian apartment bombings and other terrorism acts in an effort to bring Vladimir Putin to power. He also accused Putin of ordering the murder in October 2006 of the Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya.

On 1 November 2006, Litvinenko suddenly fell ill and was hospitalised in what was established as a case of poisoning by radioactive polonium-210, resulting in his death on 23 November. A British murder investigation pointed to Andrey Lugovoy, a member of Russia’s Federal Protective Service, as the prime suspect. The United Kingdom requested the extradition of Lugovoy, but the request was refused.

Extracted from Wikipedia.

October 7, 2014

ASX finds support

After taking a beating in the morning session, the ASX 200 rallied to close almost unchanged. The long tail and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicate short-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 5360 and the declining trendline would suggest that the correction is over. But reversal below 5240 remains as likely and would warn of a test of primary support at 5000/5050.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5650 – 5350 ) = 5050

The ASX 200 VIX is creeping upwards, but remains at levels typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

October 7, 2014

Asia: Sensex selling pressure

Shanghai remains closed for National Day holidays, October 1st to 7th.

India’s Sensex is testing support at 26500. Penetration of the secondary rising trendline and follow-through below 26000 would warn of a correction. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal selling pressure. Reversal below zero would warn of a trend change. Recovery above 27000 is unlikely at present, but would indicate an advance to 28000*.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 27000 + ( 27000 – 26000 ) = 28000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing support at 15500 and the rising trendline. Failure of support would warn of a secondary correction, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to indicate buying pressure. Recovery above 16000 would suggest another advance. Breakout above 16300 would confirm.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

October 7, 2014

Dollar retraces

The Dollar Index is retracing to test its new support level at 84.50. Respect would confirm a primary advance with a target of 89*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates a healthy primary up-trend. Failure of support is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the primary trendline.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89.00

October 7, 2014

October clearance sales not yet over

Dow Jones Industrial Average ran into resistance at 17000 signaling that the October clearance sales may not yet be over. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero suggests hesitancy despite the good job numbers. The primary trend is bullish, but reversal below 16700 would warn of a secondary correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 – 15500 ) = 17500

The Nasdaq 100 found support at 3950/4000 on the weekly chart. Recovery above 4100 would indicate a further advance, while follow-through below 3950 would warn of a correction to the primary trendline at 3750/3850. Mild divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests further selling pressure.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 4000 + ( 4000 – 3750 ) = 4250

October 7, 2014

Reserve currency status: Privilege or burden?

Is the reserve currency status of the US Dollar a privilege or a burden? Michael Pettis suggests the latter and argues in favor of constraining unlimited purchases of US or other government bonds by international trading partners like China and Japan:

…it is actually quite easy to list the conditions under which reserve currency status encourages growth and the conditions under which it forces a rise either in debt or in unemployment. In advanced countries with deep and flexible financial markets, except in the case in which capital has become severely constrained by the need for money to be backed by gold, or real interest rates have been forced up to extremely high levels in order to break inflation as was the case in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the net inflows associated automatically with reserve currency status will not result in an increase in productive investment. They only result in an increase either in debt or in unemployment.

This is not an argument in favor of returning to gold, by the way. It is completely neutral on the issue. This argument simply restates the Keynesian insight that eliminating the discipline imposed by the gold standard is likely to become destabilizing unless there is another way to impose discipline…..

….the potentially destabilizing effect is no longer so distant. In a recent essay I tried to show that if we have not already reached the point at which the dominant reserve currency status of the US dollar is harmful to the US and potentially destabilizing to the world, logically we will inevitably reach that point, and probably soon….

I have frequently argued that capital account inflows into US Treasuries artificially inflate the dollar, give trading partners a competitive advantage, and cause the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs. Failure to address this issue is one of the major causes of low wage growth and rising inequality in the US.

October 6, 2014

Brazil: Stockholders cast their vote in upcoming election

In emerging markets, Brazil’s stock market surged after the left-leaning President Dilma Rousseff was forced into a run-off race against Aecio Neves, a centre-right challenger, who only surged in the final week of the campaign. Ms Rousseff is promising to expand Brazil’s social programmes and continue strong state involvement in the economy, while Mr Neves says he will pursue more centrist economic approaches, such as central bank independence, more privatisations and the pursuit of trade deals with Europe and the United States.

Brazil’s benchmark Ibovespa index rose 4.7% to 57,115.