Nymex Light Crude is headed for another test of support at $45/barrel. Breach would signal a decline, with a medium-term target of $35/barrel*.
* Target calculation: 45 – ( 55 – 45 ) = 35
Saturation of available storage capacity (see Crude in Contango) is expected to force sellers into the market and drive prices lower.
Boone Pickens has said that he can’t see a floor to WTI prices until the rig counts approach 500 total in the US. We are currently around 1000 rigs down from 1900 at the end of 2014. Seems like a drop to $30-35 is entirely possible on this basis.