Dollar surges despite falling Treasury yields

The Dollar Index continues its advance towards resistance at the 2013 highs of 84.50. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the (bull) signal. Reversal below 81.50 is most unlikely.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81.50 – ( 81.50 – 79.00 ) = 84.00

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes rallied but is unlikely to break resistance at 2.50 percent. Respect would signal a decline to 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding below zero reflects a primary down-trend.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.50 – ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 2.00

Why is the Dollar rising when yields are falling?

One major factor that drives this is foreign purchases of US Treasuries.

Federal Debt Held by Foreign and International Investors

Why invest $4 Trillion in Treasuries when the yields are so low? Simply because the primary objective of China and other major investors is to drive the Dollar higher — and drive their own currency lower — in order to maintain a trade advantage.

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