When oil prices are making new highs, we expect slower growth. It is interesting that the biggest effects on GDP come 3 or 4 quarters after oil prices have gone up…….. We often see some economic responses right away, such as a drop in consumer sentiment, fall in sales of less energy-efficient vehicles, or build up of inventories. But it usually takes some time for the effects of these to be multiplied as they ripple through the rest of the economy.
via Econbrowser: Economic consequences of recent oil price changes.