Coverage of all major currencies and the US Dollar Index.
The dollar rebounded after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in congressional testimony, gave no signal that the central bank is considering additional measures to spur the economy. He said the inflation outlook is “subdued.” The greenback gained as much as 0.5 percent against a basket of competing currencies.
via Gold falls as Fed gives no signs of new stimulus | Marketscope | Investing | Financial Post.
The Aussie and Canadian Dollar mirror the CRB Commodities Index, testing resistance at their long-term highs. The Aussie encountered resistance at $1.08. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend — already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero.
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20
Canada’s Loonie is similarly testing resistance at $1.01. Breakout would offer a target of $1.06*.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
The South African Rand is fairing slightly better, with the Aussie testing medium-term support at R8.00. Failure would warn of a correction to the long-term rising trendline at R7.50.
* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50
The Euro is in a primary down-trend despite the latest rally, headed for a test of the descending trendline. Expect retracement to test support at $1.32; breach of $1.30 would warn of another test of primary support (at $1.26).
* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22
Pound Sterling broke its descending trendline several weeks ago and is headed for a test of resistance at $1.62. Upward breakout is unlikely at present, but recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would be a bullish sign.
The US Dollar is retracing to test the new support level after breaking long-term resistance at 80 Japanese Yen. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero, after a long-term bullish divergence, indicates a primary up-trend. Expect a test of the 2011 high at ¥85.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
Spot gold ran into resistance at $1800/ounce and is testing medium-term support at $1700. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend but we will not have confirmation until there is a clear break through $1800.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100
The Dollar Index is conversely testing support at 78.00. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum may be slowing but the dollar remains in a primary up-trend. Respect of support would signal continuation — and weaker demand for gold.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
The Aussie Dollar is testing short-term support at $1.06, the lower peak at $1.08 warning of selling pressure. Breach of the secondary rising trendline (and support at $1.06) would warn of a correction to the long-term trendline around $1.02. Recovery above $1.08, however, would signal a fresh primary advance with a long-term target of $1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20
Canada’s Loonie continues to consolidate below $1.01 on the weekly chart, while 63-day Twiggs Momentum crossed to above zero, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would confirm, offering an initial target of $1.06*.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
Both the Aussie and the Loonie are strongly influenced by commodity prices. If the CRB Commodities Index breaks resistance, expect both currencies to follow — though Canada will benefit more from higher oil prices.
Spot gold is testing resistance at $1800/ounce on the weekly chart after completing a small flag to signal continuation of the up-trend. Breakout would signal a primary advance to $2100*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1800 + (1800 – 1500 ) = 2100
The US Dollar Index remains weak as inflation expectations rise. Failure of medium-term support at 78.50 would warn of trend weakness, while recovery above 80.00 would indicate trend strength. Target for a breakout above 81.50 would be 85.00*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
The US Dollar broke its 5-year down-trend against the Japanese Yen. Penetration of the descending trendline from 2007 indicates that a bottom is forming. Breakout above resistance at ¥80 would signal the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial target of ¥86, confirming the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.
The euro retreated below $1.32 USD; failure of support at $1.30 would indicate another test of primary support at $1.26. And breakout below primary support would signal a decline to $1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20
Pound Sterling is retreating on the weekly chart. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of another test of primary support at $1.53.
Canada’s Loonie respected resistance at $1.01 and is likely to re-test its rising trendline. Recovery above $1.01 is uncertain but would signal a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
The Aussie Dollar similarly respected resistance at $1.08 and is likely to test medium-term support and the rising trendline at $1.04. Breakout above $1.08 would indicate a primary up-trend; confirmed if 63-day Momentum respects the zero line (from above).
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20
The US Dollar found support at R7.50 South African Rand. A rally that respects the descending trendline, however, would warn of continuation of the primary down-trend. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.
The greenback is strengthening against the Japanese Yen. Breach of the descending trendline indicates that a bottom is forming. And breakout above ¥80 would signal the start of a primary up-trend — confirming the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84
Spot gold displays a small flag consolidation, suggesting continuation of the advance to test $1800/ounce. Breach of the descending trendline indicates that the down-trend has ended and breakout above $1800 would signal an advance to $2100*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal. A strengthening dollar, however, would weaken demand for gold.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100
The US Dollar Index found support above 78. Recovery above 80 would indicate another test of resistance at 82. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong up-trend. Breakout above 82 would confirm the target of 85*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
The euro is testing resistance around $1.32 but the primary down-trend is strong. With 63-day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero, expect another test of primary support at $1.26. Breakout remains likely and would offer a target of $1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20
The Aussie dollar has surged ahead of the CRB Commodities Index which it tracks quite closely. Breakout above $1.08 would signal a primary advance to $1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20
Canada’s Loonie shows a similar pattern, testing resistance at $1.01. Breakout would offer a target of $1.06*.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
Pound Sterling followed through above the descending trendline, indicating that the primary down-trend is over. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Only a breakout above 41.62, however, would signal the start of a primary up-trend.
The greenback continues to test support at ¥76. Breakout would signal another decline, this time with a target of ¥72*. Long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, indicates that the down-trend is slowing; breach of the descending trendline would strengthen the signal. Recovery above ¥80 would signal a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 76 – ( 80 – 76 ) = 72
The South African Rand unexpectedly broke downwards from its bullish ascending triangle against the Aussie Dollar; follow-through below R8.00 would signal a correction to R7.50 (and the long-term trendline).
