Fed’s Kocherlakota on Why Balance Sheet Expansion Need Not Be Inflationary – Real Time Economics – WSJ

I’ve mentioned how the Federal Reserve has bought over $2 trillion of government securities. It has funded that purchase by tripling the amount of deposits held by banks with the Fed — what are called bank reserves.

……. Banks have few good lending opportunities, and so they’re not trying to attract deposits. As a result, they are keeping nearly $1.6 trillion of reserves at the Fed in excess of what they need to back their deposits.

…… Some observers are concerned that ……. the banks’ excess reserves will serve as kindling for an inflationary fire. This concern would have been entirely appropriate three years ago. But in October 2008, Congress granted the Federal Reserve the power to pay interest on bank reserves. Right now, that interest rate is 25 basis points, or 0.25%. By raising that rate judiciously, the Fed has the ability to deter banks from using their reserves to create money, and through this mechanism, the Fed can prevent inflation.

via Fed’s Kocherlakota on Why Balance Sheet Expansion Need Not Be Inflationary – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

Monetary expansion through further asset purchases by the Fed (quantitative easing) would be ineffective, simply boosting the level of excess reserves held by banks on deposit at the Fed. Monetary tightening would be more difficult, but could be achieved by raising the interest rate paid on excess reserves in order to discourage banks from using their excess reserves. That would raise the overnight rate (fed funds rate) in the market and restrict banks from expanding their balance sheets.

Debt crisis: live – Telegraph

12.05 German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert is doing his best to sprinkle a bit of reality back on to the euro crisis. He said:

Dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won’t be able to be fulfilled.

via Debt crisis: live – Telegraph.

A leveraged EFSF is pure poison – Telegraph Blogs

If Europe’s leaders do indeed leverage their €440bn bail-out fund (EFSF) to €2 trillion or €3 trillion through some form of “first loss” insurance on Club Med bonds – as markets now seem to assume – the consequences will be swift and brutal.

Professor Ansgar Belke, from Berlin’s DIW Institute, said any leveraging of the EFSF would be “poisonous” for France’s AAA rating and would set off an uncontrollable chain of events.

“It counteracts all efforts made so far to stabilize the eurozone debt crisis, which are premised on the AAA rating of a sufficiently large number of strong economies. In extremis, it would probably cause the break-up of the eurozone”, he told Handlesblatt.

…..Dr Belke said France is already under pressure. BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole may need €20bn in fresh capital, with knock-on risk for the French state. He warned that France’s public debt (Now 82pc of GDP) would shoot up to 90pc of GDP if the debt crisis rumbles on. Variants of this theme were picked up by other German economists in a Handelsblatt forum.

via A leveraged EFSF is pure poison – Telegraph Blogs.

Of Blind Men and Elephants – Grasping China’s Economy – China Real Time Report – WSJ

Former Australian Ambassador to China and current board member of Australian miner Fortescue Metals Geoff Raby had a different take.

….While he clearly felt the recent sell-off of stocks on fears that China’s economy was slowing was hugely overblown, he had more time for concerns about Chinese corporate disclosures. He said he didn’t think corporate transparency was any worse now than before, but “I don’t know why people believed [the numbers] so much in the past.”

That the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s benchmark index is trading at a fraction its 2007 peak is a sign that “people are finally starting to work it out.”

via Of Blind Men and Elephants – Grasping China’s Economy – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

A Proven Principle Behind Obama’s Jobs Plan – NYTimes.com

It wasn’t until the 1940s that economists realized that a balanced-budget stimulus could be effective, too. As I’ve discussed in earlier columns, economists starting with Walter S. Salant and Paul A. Samuelson realized that during a depression or in near-depression conditions, any government expenditure fully funded by taxes will increase national income approximately one for one, without raising national debt. This is known as the balanced-budget multiplier.

The public improvements suggested in the president’s proposal would have been fully paid for by the bill’s tax surcharge. And any new legislation we now consider could also pay for such improvements with tax increases, so as not to raise the national debt even temporarily. This idea should still have common-sense appeal to Americans in this time of high unemployment, just as the idea of winter work does on the farm.

via A Proven Principle Behind Obama’s Jobs Plan – NYTimes.com.

Chart of the day: Greatest Credit Deterioration Focus – Belgium, Spanish banking | Credit Writedowns

As I said in July, I expect contagion to be a real concern regarding the dithering policy approach. I believe the sovereign debt crisis will continue to deteriorate further for just this reason.

…..So, what happens is that the crisis rolls through. More and more countries in the euro zone get plucked off and put into the penalty box. First it was Greece. Then it was Ireland and Portugal. Later the crisis rolled into Italy and Spain.

There are ever fewer players left to skate. Now we see Belgium in big trouble. Austria and France cannot be far behind. Once France has difficulties, the core only has one country, Germany, which is a truly large economy, capable of shouldering any burdens. In my view, that is the end of the line.

via Chart of the day: Greatest Credit Deterioration Focus – Belgium, Spanish banking | Credit Writedowns.

The Global Jobs Challenge – Michael Spence – Project Syndicate

What does it mean – for individuals, businesses, and governments – that structural adjustment is falling further and further behind the global forces that are causing pressure for structural change? Above all, it means that expectations are broadly inconsistent with reality, and need to adjust, in some cases downward. But distributional effects need to be taken seriously and addressed. The burden of weak or non-existent recoveries should not be borne by the unemployed, including the young. In the interest of social cohesion, market outcomes need to be modified to create a more even distribution of incomes and benefits, both now and in inter-temporal terms. After all, underinvestment now implies diminished opportunity in the future.

via The Global Jobs Challenge – Michael Spence – Project Syndicate.

Fedex & UPS

Bellwether transport stock Fedex displays a bear market rally with a target of 80. UPS is even stronger, having broken out from its trading range of the last 2 months to signal a re-test of its 2011 high. Not enough to indicate an up-turn but encouraging all the same.

Fedex and UPS