{"id":9912,"date":"2014-05-26T19:32:57","date_gmt":"2014-05-26T23:32:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=9912"},"modified":"2014-05-26T19:32:57","modified_gmt":"2014-05-26T23:32:57","slug":"china-isnt-just-slowing-down-its-contracting-business-insider","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/26\/china-isnt-just-slowing-down-its-contracting-business-insider\/","title":{"rendered":"China Isn’t Just Slowing Down \u2014 It’s Contracting | Business Insider"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kyle Bass, founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management, on China’s debt bubble:<\/p>\n

\n

China\u2019s banking assets have grown to over 100% of its GDP in the last three years, according to Bass. If the U.S. had engaged in similar policies \u2013 which he said would translate to $17 trillion in lending over that time period \u2013 it, too, would have achieved more than 7% GDP growth.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s banking assets now total approximately $25 trillion, or almost three times the size of its $9 trillion economy. Its low default rate on bank loans \u2013 about 1% \u2013 is about to rise, according to Bass. Much of that lending is construction-related. Bass said that 55% of China\u2019s GDP growth has been in the construction sector. The marginal return on those loans must be very small, he argued.<\/p>\n

\u201cA rolling loan gathers no loss,\u201d Bass said, \u201cand that\u2019s what\u2019s been going on in China for the last few years.\u201d He said it is impossible to believe China could \u201cmanipulate\u201d the inputs of its financial system without losing control of the outcomes.<\/p>\n

Deflation is also threatening China. Bass said that its GDP deflator is now below zero. He expects the PBoC to engineer a devaluation of the renminbi as a way to stimulate exports and avert further deflation…<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

China may well attempt to engineer a devaluation of the RMB, but neither the Fed nor the ECB are likely to tolerate China exporting their deflation<\/a> to the US\/Europe.<\/p>\n

Read more at Kyle Bass On China And Japan – Business Insider<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kyle Bass, founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management, on China’s debt bubble: China\u2019s banking assets have grown to over 100% of its GDP in the last three years, according to Bass. If the U.S. had engaged in similar policies \u2013 which he said would translate to $17 trillion in lending over that time period … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “China Isn’t Just Slowing Down \u2014 It’s Contracting | Business Insider”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,5],"tags":[375,663,990,1527,2868],"class_list":["post-9912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-economy","tag-banking-assets","tag-china","tag-deflation","tag-gdp-growth","tag-real-estate-bubble"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Isn't Just Slowing Down \u2014 It's Contracting | Business Insider - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China Isn't Just Slowing Down \u2014 It's Contracting | Business Insider - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kyle Bass, founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management, on China’s debt bubble: China\u2019s banking assets have grown to over 100% of its GDP in the last three years, according to Bass. 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At the same time, the Chinese growth model has been\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16180,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/04\/16\/does-china-have-the-financial-arsenic-to-ruin-the-us\/","url_meta":{"origin":9912,"position":2},"title":"Does China have the ‘financial arsenic’ to ruin the US?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 16, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The media has been highly critical of Donald Trump's threatened tariff war with China, suggesting that China has the stronger hand. I disagree on two points: Trump is right to confront China. Even Paul Krugman, not a noted Trump supporter, called for this in 2010. 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Atilla Widnell, managing director\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":32756,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/14\/current-turmoil-and-its-impact-on-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":9912,"position":4},"title":"Current turmoil and its impact on Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 14, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Michael Every from Rabobank is bearish on Gold in his recent video: \"I can't see the case for Gold while the Fed is hiking -- you don't get a correlation with the Fed hiking aggressively and Gold going up.....If you want to buy into the Gold argument you are buying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bank Credit & Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-11-bankcredit-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-11-bankcredit-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-11-bankcredit-ffr.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-11-bankcredit-ffr.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19585,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/12\/20\/cracks-are-showing-in-chinas-debt-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":9912,"position":5},"title":"Cracks are showing in China’s Debt Markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 20, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\"You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out\u2026\" ~ Warren Buffett Beijing's de-leveraging campaign, to set the economy on a sustainable path, is starting to expose some of the excesses in financial markets. 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