{"id":988,"date":"2011-09-26T20:58:15","date_gmt":"2011-09-27T00:58:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=988"},"modified":"2011-09-26T20:58:15","modified_gmt":"2011-09-27T00:58:15","slug":"macro-tides-how-much-longer-the-big-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/26\/macro-tides-how-much-longer-the-big-picture\/","title":{"rendered":"Macro Tides: How Much Longer? | The Big Picture"},"content":{"rendered":"

Forty three months after the recession began in January 2008, almost 5% of the labor force remains unemployed. In 7 of the eleven recessions since World War II, all the jobs lost during the recession were filled within 24 months. What\u2019s happening in this \u2018recovery\u2019 is simply unprecedented.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

via Macro Tides: How Much Longer? | The Big Picture<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forty three months after the recession began in January 2008, almost 5% of the labor force remains unemployed. In 7 of the eleven recessions since World War II, all the jobs lost during the recession were filled within 24 months. What\u2019s happening in this \u2018recovery\u2019 is simply unprecedented. via Macro Tides: How Much Longer? | … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Macro Tides: How Much Longer? | The Big Picture”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[1967,1970,2880,2884,3531],"class_list":["post-988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-jobs","tag-jobs-lost","tag-recession","tag-recovery","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"\nMacro Tides: How Much Longer? | The Big Picture - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Macro Tides: How Much Longer? | The Big Picture - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Forty three months after the recession began in January 2008, almost 5% of the labor force remains unemployed. 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Green Jr. and John F. Coder, former Census Bureau officials, wrote a report based on Census data that explored household incomes during and after the recession. They found that starting in June 2009, at the official end of the recession, up to June 2011, the inflation-adjusted median household\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21401,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/05\/rapid-recovery-or-prolonged-depression\/","url_meta":{"origin":988,"position":1},"title":"Rapid recovery or prolonged depression?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 5, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"US unemployment fell to 8.4% in August. Annual change in non-farm payroll recovered to -6.98%. Initial claims declined to 881,000. 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In the previous 10 recessions, the average number of quarters it took to return to the prerecession peak was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22464,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/05\/the-slowing-recovery-needs-stimulus-but-there-is-a-cost\/","url_meta":{"origin":988,"position":3},"title":"The slowing recovery needs stimulus but there is a cost","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week I spoke of a W-shaped recession as COVID-19 cases soared to new highs. The jobs recovery is slowing, with total non-farm payroll at -6.4% (Sep20 compared to Sep19), still well below the 2009 low of -5.0%. Real GDP may have recovered to -2.9% for Q3 but hours worked\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":41867,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/01\/a-will-e-coyote-pause\/","url_meta":{"origin":988,"position":4},"title":"A Wile-E-Coyote pause?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 1, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Recessions are normally triggered by rising interest rates, as the Fed tightens monetary policy, which then take two or more years to manifest in rising unemployment and falling consumption. The chart below shows how the peak in the Fed funds rate (purple circles) either precedes or coincides with the trough\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment & Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-30-u3-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-30-u3-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-30-u3-ffr.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43458,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/16\/eric-basmajian-predicts-recession-by-q1-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":988,"position":5},"title":"Eric Basmajian predicts recession by Q1 next year","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 16, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Interview with Eric Basmajian of EPB Research: https:\/\/youtu.be\/ztfUeeGwq0k Eric breaks down the economy into four\u00a0 \"buckets\" that tend to experience a recession in a set sequence, with considerable lags between the four: Leading Items that are highly sensitive to interest rates, and where there is a limited or loose contractual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Leading Sectors","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-15-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-15-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-15-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-15-leading.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=988"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/988\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}