{"id":9779,"date":"2014-05-07T08:13:40","date_gmt":"2014-05-07T12:13:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=9779"},"modified":"2014-05-07T08:13:40","modified_gmt":"2014-05-07T12:13:40","slug":"is-the-market-overpriced","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the market overpriced?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>David Leonhardt published this graph from Robert Shiller in his <a href=\"Robert Shiller\" title=\"Time to Worry About Stock Market Bubbles\" target=\"_blank\">piece in the NY Times<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"381\" title=\"Shiller CAPE\" alt=\"Shiller CAPE\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/shiller-cape.png?resize=525%2C381&#038;ssl=1\" \/> <\/p>\n<p>I have one major issue with this: stock values are based on FUTURE earnings, not PAST earnings. The two are only related if earnings for the past 10 years are indicative of earnings for the next 10 years. I suspect that the next 10 years will present a whole new rash of unforeseen problems, but will be nothing like the last 10 years &#8212; any more than the period 2001 to 2010 resembles 1991 to 2000 (or 1981 to 1990).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>David Leonhardt published this graph from Robert Shiller in his piece in the NY Times: I have one major issue with this: stock values are based on FUTURE earnings, not PAST earnings. The two are only related if earnings for the past 10 years are indicative of earnings for the next 10 years. I suspect &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Is the market overpriced?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[567,2979],"class_list":["post-9779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-cape","tag-robert-shiller"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the market overpriced? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the market overpriced? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"David Leonhardt published this graph from Robert Shiller in his piece in the NY Times: I have one major issue with this: stock values are based on FUTURE earnings, not PAST earnings. The two are only related if earnings for the past 10 years are indicative of earnings for the next 10 years. I suspect &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Is the market overpriced?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-05-07T12:13:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/shiller-cape.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Is the market overpriced?\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-05-07T12:13:40+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/\"},\"wordCount\":89,\"commentCount\":8,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/shiller-cape.png\",\"keywords\":[\"CAPE\",\"Robert Shiller\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/\",\"name\":\"Is the market overpriced? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/shiller-cape.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-05-07T12:13:40+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/shiller-cape.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/shiller-cape.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/05\/07\/is-the-market-overpriced\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Is the market overpriced?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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PEMAX eliminates the distortion caused by cyclical earnings fluctuations, using the highest earnings to-date rather than current earnings. The idea being that cyclical declines in earnings reflect a fall in capacity utilization rather than a long-term drop\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15010,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/17\/robert-shiller-is-he-right-that-stocks-are-overpriced\/","url_meta":{"origin":9779,"position":2},"title":"Robert Shiller: Is he right that stocks are overpriced?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 17, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"I frequently come across stocks such as Netflix [NFLX], trading on a forward PE of 137 (Morningstar), or even Coca Cola [KO] and Procter & Gamble [PG] that leave me muttering about unrealistic valuations. Nobel laureate Robert Shiller this week commented that he was no longer buying stocks as he\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16039,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/12\/09\/cape-v-pemax-how-hot-are-market-valuations\/","url_meta":{"origin":9779,"position":3},"title":"CAPE v PEMAX: How hot are market valuations?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio is currently at 32.17, the second-highest peak in recorded history. According to multpl.com, prior to the Black Tuesday crash of 1929 CAPE had a reading of 30. The only peak with a higher reading is the Dotcom bubble at 44. Click here to view at multpl.com.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Quotes&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Quotes","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/quotes\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17741,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/15\/pemax-why-you-should-be-cautious-using-robert-shillers-cape\/","url_meta":{"origin":9779,"position":4},"title":"PEmax and why you should be wary of Robert Shiller&#8217;s CAPE","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 15, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Shiller's groundbreaking works, Irrational Exuberance and Animal Spirits, led to a Nobel prize in 2013 but we need to be careful of placing too much reliance on his CAPE as an indicator of stock market value. What is CAPE? CAPE is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, normally applied to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14961,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/15\/why-robert-shiller-is-worried-about-the-trump-rally-bloomberg\/","url_meta":{"origin":9779,"position":5},"title":"Why Robert Shiller Is Worried About the Trump Rally &#8211; Bloomberg","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 15, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"According to Bloomberg, Nobel Prize-winning economist, Robert Shiller, says he is not buying stocks at present: ....One factor that makes him cautious on American shares is the S&P 500\u2019s cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio: While the metric is still about 30 percent below its high in 2000, it shows stocks are almost\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9779\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}