{"id":969,"date":"2011-09-24T05:16:55","date_gmt":"2011-09-24T09:16:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=969"},"modified":"2011-09-24T05:16:55","modified_gmt":"2011-09-24T09:16:55","slug":"the-great-debt-scare-robert-j-shiller-project-syndicate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/24\/the-great-debt-scare-robert-j-shiller-project-syndicate\/","title":{"rendered":"The Great Debt Scare – Robert J. Shiller – Project Syndicate"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Consumer Sentiment Survey of Americans, created by George Katona at the University of Michigan in the early 1950\u2019s, and known today as the Thomson-Reuters University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, has included a remarkable question about the reasonably long-term future, five years hence, and asks about visceral fears concerning that period:<\/p>\n

\u201cLooking ahead, which would you say is more likely \u2013 that in the country as a whole we\u2019ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?\u201d<\/p>\n

That question is usually not singled out for attention, but it appears spot-on for what we really want to know: what deep anxieties and fears do people have that might inhibit their willingness to spend for a long time. The answers to that question might well help us forecast the future outlook much more accurately.<\/p>\n

Those answers plunged into depression territory between July and August, and the index of optimism based on answers to this question is at its lowest level since the oil-crisis-induced \u201cgreat recession\u201d of the early 1980\u2019s…..<\/p>\n

This is a much bigger downswing than was recorded in the overall consumer-confidence indices. The decline occurred over the better part of a decade, as we began to see the end of debt-driven overexpansion, and accelerated with the latest debt crisis.<\/p>\n

The timing and substance of these consumer-survey results suggest that our fundamental outlook about the economy, at the level of the average person, is closely bound up with stories of excessive borrowing, loss of governmental and personal responsibility, and a sense that matters are beyond control. That kind of loss of confidence may well last for years.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

via The Great Debt Scare – Robert J. Shiller – Project Syndicate<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Consumer Sentiment Survey of Americans, created by George Katona at the University of Michigan in the early 1950\u2019s, and known today as the Thomson-Reuters University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, has included a remarkable question about the reasonably long-term future, five years hence, and asks about visceral fears concerning that period: \u201cLooking ahead, which … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The Great Debt Scare – Robert J. Shiller – Project Syndicate”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[794,962,2146],"class_list":["post-969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-consumer-confidence","tag-debt-crisis","tag-long-term-outlook"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Great Debt Scare - Robert J. Shiller - Project Syndicate - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Great Debt Scare - Robert J. Shiller - Project Syndicate - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Consumer Sentiment Survey of Americans, created by George Katona at the University of Michigan in the early 1950\u2019s, and known today as the Thomson-Reuters University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, has included a remarkable question about the reasonably long-term future, five years hence, and asks about visceral fears concerning that period: \u201cLooking ahead, which … Continue reading "The Great Debt Scare – Robert J. 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The long end of the Treasury yield curve is steepening even as the short end declines. Fiscal debt in most developed countries is too high and cannot be repaid\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61687,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/17\/the-elephant-in-the-room-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":1},"title":"The elephant in the room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The elephant in the room is $37 trillion of US fiscal debt Rising long-term interest rates reflect bond market concerns that the Fed will sacrifice price stability to support an unstable Treasury market A year ago, we wrote: The elephant in the room is Government debt which is growing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CBO Projections of Debt Held by the Public as a Percentage of GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62293,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/18\/consumers-the-dow-and-secular-trends\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":2},"title":"Consumers, the Dow, and secular trends","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Consumer sentiment remains weak, and inflation expectations are high The Fed maintains strong liquidity to support financial markets A Dow breakout above 45K would signal the third phase of a bull market Secular trends in Treasuries and the Dollar fuel long-term demand for gold Retail sales show no\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Advance Real Retail & Food Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-realretail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-15-realretail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":51146,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/15\/university-of-michigan-survey-of-consumers\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":3},"title":"University of Michigan: Survey of Consumers","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 15, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The University of Michigan survey of consumers shows sentiment trending upwards, with the 3-month moving average reaching 78.1 in April. Also, short-term inflation expectations are trending lower, with the 3-month moving average at 3.0% But long-term inflation expectations remain steady, with 5-year expectations ranging around 3.0%. Conclusion Consumer sentiment is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-14-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-14-uom-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-14-uom-sentiment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62597,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/11\/xi-pulls-the-rug-on-trump\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":4},"title":"Xi pulls the rug on Trump","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points China increased export controls on critical materials where it has a dominant share of production, two weeks ahead of a scheduled face-to-face meeting between leader Xi Jinping and President Trump. The US President has threatened retaliation, including 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. The S&P 500 plunged on Friday,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-10-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60275,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/11\/us-jobs-report-warns-of-higher-rates-in-2025\/","url_meta":{"origin":969,"position":5},"title":"US jobs report warns of higher rates in 2025","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A strong December jobs report lifted long-term Treasury yields, while five-year inflation expectations have broken out above their narrow range, warning of a bond bear market ahead. Rising long-term interest rates are bearish for growth stocks trading at substantial premiums to current sales and earnings. They are less so for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-10-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/969\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}