{"id":9617,"date":"2014-04-01T01:03:45","date_gmt":"2014-04-01T05:03:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=9617"},"modified":"2014-04-01T01:03:45","modified_gmt":"2014-04-01T05:03:45","slug":"gold-losing-its-luster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/04\/01\/gold-losing-its-luster\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold losing its luster"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflation pressures are easing and Elliot Clarke summarizes Westpac’s outlook for US inflation as follows:<\/p>\n

This week we decompose the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator to assess what inflation pressures currently exist and how they are likely to develop. The conclusion is that the inflation picture argues for an extended period of extremely accommodative policy settings and it may even serve to delay the timing of the initial interest rate increase well beyond the timeframe currently envisaged by markets.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Soft treasury yields, a weak dollar and weaker gold price tend to support this view.<\/p>\n

Interest Rates and the Dollar<\/h3>\n

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is ranging in a narrow band between 2.60 percent and 2.80 percent. Breakout above 2.80 would indicate an advance to 3.50 percent* — confirmed if there is follow-through above 3.00 percent — but declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of weakness. Breach of primary support at 2.50 percent is as likely and would signal a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 3.50<\/p>\n

The Dollar Index is testing medium-term resistance at 80.50. Breakout would suggest that a bottom is forming, but only recovery above 81.50 would signal a trend change. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero, however, is typical of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at 79.00 would signal a decline to 76.50*.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 79.0 – ( 81.5 – 79.0 ) = 76.5<\/p>\n

Gold and Silver<\/h3>\n

Silver failed to imitate gold’s performance in the first quarter and is headed for a test of primary support at $19\/ounce. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum likewise failed to cross to above zero, suggesting continuation of the primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $16, while respect of support would test resistance at $22\/ounce.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Spot gold is undergoing a strong correction, having breached the rising trendline and support at $1320\/ounce. The outlook remains bullish, but breach of primary support by Silver or continued decline of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would negate this. Failure of primary support at $1200 is unlikely, but would offer a target of $1000\/ounce*.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000<\/p>\n

Copper<\/h3>\n

Copper is a commodity rather than a precious metal, but is also used as a store of value. At present, copper is testing long-term support at $6800\/tonne. Follow-through below $6600 would signal continuation of the primary down-trend to $6000\/tonne*. Recovery above the descending trendline (at $7000) is unlikely, but would suggest that a bottom is forming.<\/p>\n

\"Copper\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 6750 – ( 7500 – 6750 ) = 6000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation pressures are easing and Elliot Clarke summarizes Westpac’s outlook for US inflation as follows: This week we decompose the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator to assess what inflation pressures currently exist and how they are likely to develop. The conclusion is that the inflation picture argues for an extended period of extremely accommodative policy … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Gold losing its luster”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,6,9,34,35],"tags":[70,815,1073,1578,3124],"class_list":["post-9617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-copper","tag-dollar-index","tag-gold-2","tag-silver-2"],"yoast_head":"\nGold losing its luster - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold losing its luster - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation pressures are easing and Elliot Clarke summarizes Westpac’s outlook for US inflation as follows: This week we decompose the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator to assess what inflation pressures currently exist and how they are likely to develop. 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Recovery above 2.65 would suggest the correction is over, offering a medium-term target of 2.80 and long-term of 3.00 percent. 13-Week\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-03-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10345,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/17\/gold-retreats-as-dollar-strengthens\/","url_meta":{"origin":9617,"position":1},"title":"Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 17, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Treasury yields remain weak The Dollar strengthens Inflation looks weak despite rising TIPS spread Gold retreats Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes continues to test support at 2.50 percent. Failure would indicate a decline to 2.00 percent; follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":14554,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/25\/gold-falls-as-dollar-climbs\/","url_meta":{"origin":9617,"position":2},"title":"Gold falls as Dollar climbs","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Interest rates are surging as the market anticipates rising inflation under a Trump presidency. 10-Year Treasury yields are testing resistance at 2.50. Breakout is likely and would signal a test of resistance at 3.0 percent. Penetration of 3.0 percent would warn that the 30-year secular down-trend in Treasury and bond\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12526,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/17\/gold-breaks-support-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":9617,"position":3},"title":"Gold breaks support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 17, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold fell to $1070\/ounce, breaching the band of primary support between $1080 and $1100 per ounce. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero indicate a strong primary down-trend. The next level of support is $1000\/ounce*. * Target calculation: 1100 - ( 1200 - 1100 ) = 1000 Inflation Core CPI is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-17-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-17-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-17-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10388,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/24\/gold-retreats-as-dollar-strengthens-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":9617,"position":4},"title":"Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 24, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Treasury yields weaken further The Dollar continues to strengthen Inflation target remains at 2% p.a. Gold retreats Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.50 percent, indicating a test of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Follow-through\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12372,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/01\/gold-and-treasury-yields-decline-as-inflation-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":9617,"position":5},"title":"Gold and Treasury yields decline as inflation weakens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 1, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"US inflation. Core CPI is hovering below 2.0 percent but the 5-year inflation breakeven (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS yield) suggests that inflation will fall. The recent slow-down in average hourly manufacturing earnings growth (production and non-supervisory employees) may just be statistical noise, but decline of either of these signals\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5 Year Inflation Breakeven","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9617\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}