{"id":9477,"date":"2014-03-12T19:44:45","date_gmt":"2014-03-12T23:44:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=9477"},"modified":"2014-03-12T19:44:45","modified_gmt":"2014-03-12T23:44:45","slug":"high-credit-growth-prolongs-recessions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/12\/high-credit-growth-prolongs-recessions\/","title":{"rendered":"High credit growth prolongs recessions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Research by the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco shows how high credit growth prior to a financial crisis can prolong the recession by three or more years. The graph below compares the average recovery time for a normal recession to recessions preceded by low credit growth [blue or red] and recessions preceded by high credit growth [green or orange].<\/p>\n

\"Recession<\/p>\n

Differences in public debt growth<\/em> appear to have little impact, but public debt levels are another matter.<\/p>\n

Read more at Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco | Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hat tip to Barry Ritholz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Research by the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco shows how high credit growth prior to a financial crisis can prolong the recession by three or more years. The graph below compares the average recovery time for a normal recession to recessions preceded by low credit growth [blue or red] and recessions preceded by high … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “High credit growth prolongs recessions”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[869,881,2880],"class_list":["post-9477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-debt-levels","tag-credit-booms","tag-credit-growth","tag-recession"],"yoast_head":"\nHigh credit growth prolongs recessions - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High credit growth prolongs recessions - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Research by the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco shows how high credit growth prior to a financial crisis can prolong the recession by three or more years. 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Taylor, perfectly illustrates how high public debt levels impede the ability of an economy to recover from a financial crisis: Figure 3....... shows that high levels of public\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Recessions and Public Debt Levels","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/files\/2014-07-3.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":9474,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/12\/how-a-private-credit-boom-can-lead-to-a-sovereign-debt-crises-frbsf\/","url_meta":{"origin":9477,"position":1},"title":"How a private credit boom can lead to a sovereign debt crises | FRBSF","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 12, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"From a FRBSF paper Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises by \u00d2scar Jord\u00e0, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor: Recovery from a recession triggered by a financial crisis is greatly influenced by the government\u2019s fiscal position. A financial crisis puts considerable stress on the government\u2019s budget, sometimes triggering\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11804,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/federal-budget-2015-worst-cumulative-deficits-in-60-years-chris-joye\/","url_meta":{"origin":9477,"position":2},"title":"Federal budget 2015: worst cumulative deficits in 60 years | Chris Joye","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 12, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Chris Joye (AFR) on the budget deficit: There are two critical differences in 2015 that make Australia's current debt burden [42.2% of GDP] much more troubling than that serviced by previous generations. Back in the 1977 and 1983 recessions, the household debt-to-income ratio was only 34 per cent and 37\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"International Liabilities of Australian Banks","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/erteq-300x209.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":37614,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/20\/will-a-recession-kill-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":9477,"position":3},"title":"Will a recession kill inflation?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 20, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"There is plenty of evidence to suggest that recessions cause a sharp fall in the consumer price index. Alfonso Peccatiello recently analyzed US recessions over the past century and concluded that they caused an average drop in CPI of 6.8%. A recession no doubt reduces inflation but it does not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"MacroAlf: CPI & Recessions","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-20-cpi-recessions.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-20-cpi-recessions.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-20-cpi-recessions.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25446,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/04\/24\/a-case-for-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":9477,"position":4},"title":"A case for inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 24, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Dr Lacy Hunt from Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas is one of the most highly respected market commentators but I find we have diametrically opposing views on the inflation outlook. Dr Hunt begins his current quarterly bulletin with the statement: \"Contrary to the conventional wisdom, disinflation is more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38904,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/18\/higher-for-longer-as-us-economy-shows-resilience\/","url_meta":{"origin":9477,"position":5},"title":"Higher for longer as US economy shows resilience","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 18, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The producer price index (PPI) slowed to 10.3% for the 12 months to November. Declining goods inflation is likely to feed through into lower CPI growth in the months ahead. Energy PPI is closely linked to energy prices, as the plot of PPI against WTI crude below shows. West Texas\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"PPI & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-16-ppi-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-16-ppi-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-16-ppi-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9477\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}