{"id":9474,"date":"2014-03-12T19:20:14","date_gmt":"2014-03-12T23:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=9474"},"modified":"2014-03-12T19:20:14","modified_gmt":"2014-03-12T23:20:14","slug":"how-a-private-credit-boom-can-lead-to-a-sovereign-debt-crises-frbsf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/12\/how-a-private-credit-boom-can-lead-to-a-sovereign-debt-crises-frbsf\/","title":{"rendered":"How a private credit boom can lead to a sovereign debt crises | FRBSF"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From a FRBSF paper <em>Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises<\/em> by \u00d2scar Jord\u00e0, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Recovery from a recession triggered by a financial crisis is greatly influenced by the government\u2019s fiscal position. A financial crisis puts considerable stress on the government\u2019s budget, sometimes triggering attacks on public debt. Historical analysis shows that a private credit boom raises the odds of a financial crisis. Entering such a crisis with a swollen public debt may limit the government\u2019s ability to respond and can result in a considerably slower recovery.<\/p>\n<p>In financial crises, steep declines in output worsen the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) even if the nominal amount of debt remains unchanged. Progressive tax systems cause government revenues to decline at a faster rate than output. Meanwhile, other automatic stabilizers, such as unemployment insurance programs, quickly swell public expenditures. The public sector often assumes private-sector debts to prevent a domino effect of defaults from toppling the financial system. Programs to stimulate the economy put further stress on public finances. As budget deficits balloon, deep economic downturns resulting from a private credit crunch often turn into sovereign debt crises.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/publications\/economic-letter\/2014\/march\/private-credit-public-debt-financial-crisis\/'>Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco | Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Hat tip to Barry Ritholz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From a FRBSF paper Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises by \u00d2scar Jord\u00e0, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor: Recovery from a recession triggered by a financial crisis is greatly influenced by the government\u2019s fiscal position. A financial crisis puts considerable stress on the government\u2019s budget, sometimes triggering attacks on public debt. Historical &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/12\/how-a-private-credit-boom-can-lead-to-a-sovereign-debt-crises-frbsf\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;How a private credit boom can lead to a sovereign debt crises | FRBSF&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[868,1380,2809,3189],"class_list":["post-9474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-debt-levels","tag-credit-boom","tag-financial-crisis","tag-public-debt-levels","tag-sovereign-debt-crisis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How a private credit boom can lead to a sovereign debt crises | FRBSF - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How a private credit boom can lead to a sovereign debt crises | FRBSF - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From a FRBSF paper Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises by \u00d2scar Jord\u00e0, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor: Recovery from a recession triggered by a financial crisis is greatly influenced by the government\u2019s fiscal position. A financial crisis puts considerable stress on the government\u2019s budget, sometimes triggering attacks on public debt. 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Taylor, perfectly illustrates how high public debt levels impede the ability of an economy to recover from a financial crisis: Figure 3....... shows that high levels of public\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Recessions and Public Debt Levels","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/files\/2014-07-3.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":9477,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/03\/12\/high-credit-growth-prolongs-recessions\/","url_meta":{"origin":9474,"position":1},"title":"High credit growth prolongs recessions","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 12, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Research by the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco shows how high credit growth prior to a financial crisis can prolong the recession by three or more years. The graph below compares the average recovery time for a normal recession to recessions preceded by low credit growth [blue or red]\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Recession Recovery Time","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/files\/2014-07-2.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":60739,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/04\/the-debt-liquidity-spiral-michael-howell\/","url_meta":{"origin":9474,"position":2},"title":"The Debt-Liquidity Spiral | Michael Howell","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Michael Howell sums up the growing importance of liquidity in the business cycle: The ultimate cause of all financial crises always remains the lack of liquidity as compared to the tendency of modern credit systems to over-accumulate debt. Crises are always and everywhere, debt re-financing crises. In other words, they\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9675,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/04\/13\/disturbing-trends-with-financial-crises\/","url_meta":{"origin":9474,"position":3},"title":"Disturbing trends with financial crises","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 13, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"From the Economist: Five devastating slumps\u2014starting with America\u2019s first crash, in 1792, and ending with the world\u2019s biggest, in 1929\u2014highlight two big trends in financial evolution. The first is that institutions that enhance people\u2019s economic lives, such as central banks, deposit insurance and stock exchanges, are not the products of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1450,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/21\/three-ways-to-save-the-eurozone-jean-pisani-ferry-project-syndicate\/","url_meta":{"origin":9474,"position":4},"title":"Three Ways to Save the Eurozone &#8211; Jean Pisani-Ferry &#8211; Project Syndicate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 21, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The eurozone\u2019s creeping fragmentation is primarily the result of the mutual dependence of banks and governments. 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He speaks with WSJ's Alan Murray at the latest Wall Street Journal Viewpoints panel. 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