{"id":9182,"date":"2014-02-11T21:31:39","date_gmt":"2014-02-12T02:31:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=9182"},"modified":"2014-02-11T21:31:39","modified_gmt":"2014-02-12T02:31:39","slug":"the-hole-in-us-employment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/11\/the-hole-in-us-employment\/","title":{"rendered":"The hole in US employment"},"content":{"rendered":"

US employment is topical after two months of poor jobs figures. Employers added 113,000 new jobs, against an expected 185,000, last month and a low 75,000 in December. Rather than focus on monthly data, let’s take a long-term view.<\/p>\n

The number of full-time employed as a percentage of total population [red line below] fell dramatically during the GFC, with about 1 in 10 employees losing their jobs. Since then, roughly 1 out of 4 full-time jobs lost has been restored, while the other 3 are still missing (population growth fell from 1.0% to around 0.7% post-GFC, limiting the distortion).<\/p>\n

\n\"Employed\n<\/div>\n

Comparing employment levels to the 1980s is little consolation because this is skewed by the rising participation rate of women in the work-force. The pink line below shows how the number of women employed grew from under 14% of total population in the late 1960s to more than 22% prior to the GFC. The effect on total employment [green line] was dramatic, while employment of men [blue line] oscillated between 24% and 26%.<\/p>\n

\n\"US\n<\/div>\n

Part-time employment — the difference between total employment [green] and full-time employed [red] below — has leveled off since 2000 at roughly 6% of the total population. So loss of full-time positions has not been compensated by a rise in casual work. Both have been affected.<\/p>\n

\n\"US\n<\/div>\n

The “good news” is that a soft labor market will lead to low wages growth for a considerable period, boosting corporate profits<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The bad news is that low employment levels will depress sales growth [green line]….<\/p>\n

\n\"Total\n<\/div>\n

And discourage new investment…..<\/p>\n

\n\"Private\n<\/div>\n

Which would harm future growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US employment is topical after two months of poor jobs figures. Employers added 113,000 new jobs, against an expected 185,000, last month and a low 75,000 in December. Rather than focus on monthly data, let’s take a long-term view. The number of full-time employed as a percentage of total population [red line below] fell dramatically … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The hole in US employment”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,34],"tags":[537,1227,1488,2772],"class_list":["post-9182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-business-sales","tag-employment","tag-full-time-employment","tag-private-nonresidential-fixed-investment"],"yoast_head":"\nThe hole in US employment - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The hole in US employment - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US employment is topical after two months of poor jobs figures. 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Employers added 113,000 new jobs, against an expected 185,000, last month and a low 75,000 in December. Rather than focus on monthly data, let's take a long-term view. The number of full-time employed as a percentage of total population\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10430,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/28\/is-unemployment-really-falling\/","url_meta":{"origin":9182,"position":1},"title":"Is unemployment really falling?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 28, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"US unemployment has fallen close to the Fed's \"natural unemployment rate\" of close to 5.5%. Does that mean that all is well? Chart: The unemployment rate vs. Fed's measure of \"natural\" unemployment rate (NAIRU) over the past 20 years - pic.twitter.com\/zq2fxtcHLt\u2014 SoberLook.com (@SoberLook) July 28, 2014 Not if we consider\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Participation Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15454,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/06\/16\/australia-jobs-surge\/","url_meta":{"origin":9182,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Jobs surge","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 16, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The May 2017 ABS Labour Force Survey surprised to the upside, with employment increasing by 42,000 over the previous month (full-time jobs even better at +52,100). These are seasonally adjusted figures and the trend estimates are more modest at 25200 jobs. Seasonally adjusted hours worked also jumped, reflecting an annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20464,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":9182,"position":3},"title":"Jobs and GDP growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 6, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The view is often promoted that low GDP growth over the past decade is caused by low interest rates and balance sheet expansion (QE) by central banks. That is putting the cart before the horse. Central banks have tried to stimulate their economies, with massive QE and low interest rates,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP and Nonfarm Payroll Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63606,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/12\/more-jobs-no-rate-cuts\/","url_meta":{"origin":9182,"position":4},"title":"More Jobs, No Rate Cuts","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 12, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The economy added 130,000 jobs in January. The strong BLS labor report means that further rate cuts are unlikely in the first half of 2026. The economy added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, according to the BLS labor report. The result far exceeded average expectations of 70,000 from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-11-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-11-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-11-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20484,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/09\/sharp-fall-in-us-jobs-warns-of-economic-contraction-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":9182,"position":5},"title":"Sharp fall in US jobs warns of economic contraction ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Initial jobless claims filed in the US in the last 7 weeks now total 33.5 million. Total employment in April 2020 fell by 12.9% when compared to twelve months earlier. We use total hours worked (total payroll * average weekly hours) to estimate GDP growth. It does tend to overshoot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9182"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9182\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}