{"id":9121,"date":"2014-02-05T03:13:34","date_gmt":"2014-02-05T08:13:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=9121"},"modified":"2014-02-05T03:13:34","modified_gmt":"2014-02-05T08:13:34","slug":"commodity-prices-effect-on-corporate-profits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/05\/commodity-prices-effect-on-corporate-profits\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodity prices effect on corporate profits"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sharp spikes in the US Industrial Commodities PPI (producer price index) often precede a drop in Corporate Profits (expressed below as a ratio to GDP). And sharp falls in the PPI tend to precipitate a surge in profits.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"319\" title=\"US Corporate Profits\/GDP compared to Industrial Commodities PPI - 5 Years\" alt=\"US Corporate Profits\/GDP compared to Industrial Commodities PPI - 5 Years\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/corpprofits-industrialppi.png?resize=525%2C319&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The 5-year chart above shows PPI growth close to zero since 2012. With wages, raw material costs and interest rates near long-term lows, there is little wonder that corporate profits have surged. The question is: how long will the three remain low? That depends on how fast the global economy recovers. And how long rising demand (from the recovery) is able to withstand rising input costs.<\/p>\n<h3>For the chartists: A Long-term View<\/h3>\n<p>A long-term view of Corporate Profits\/GDP compared to Industrial Commodities PPI shows the relationship is not a perfect inverse, but profits clearly tend to run counter to the rate of PPI growth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"317\" title=\"US Corporate Profits\/GDP compared to Industrial Commodities PPI\" alt=\"US Corporate Profits\/GDP compared to Industrial Commodities PPI\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/corpprofits-industrialppi-lt.png?resize=525%2C317&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sharp spikes in the US Industrial Commodities PPI (producer price index) often precede a drop in Corporate Profits (expressed below as a ratio to GDP). And sharp falls in the PPI tend to precipitate a surge in profits. The 5-year chart above shows PPI growth close to zero since 2012. With wages, raw material costs &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/05\/commodity-prices-effect-on-corporate-profits\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Commodity prices effect on corporate profits&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,34],"tags":[1524,1818,3555],"class_list":["post-9121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-gdp","tag-industrial-commodities-ppi","tag-us-corporate-profits"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Commodity prices effect on corporate profits - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Commodity prices effect on corporate profits - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sharp spikes in the US Industrial Commodities PPI (producer price index) often precede a drop in Corporate Profits (expressed below as a ratio to GDP). And sharp falls in the PPI tend to precipitate a surge in profits. The 5-year chart above shows PPI growth close to zero since 2012. 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When expressed as a percentage of GDP, NYSE margin debt is approaching 1999\/2007 levels. But not only margin debt is rising. Market capitalization, while not as fast, is also on the increase.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"NYSE Margin Debt as percentage of GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/2013-12-02-margin-debt-gdp-us.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/2013-12-02-margin-debt-gdp-us.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2013\/2013-12-02-margin-debt-gdp-us.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13396,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/25\/stock-buybacks-short-term-gain-long-term-pain\/","url_meta":{"origin":9121,"position":1},"title":"Stock buybacks: Short-term gain, long-term pain","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Companies are maintaining stock buybacks and dividends payouts despite falling earnings. Combined buybacks and dividend payouts for S&P 500 corporations exceeded earnings by an estimated $572 billion for 2015. The chart below illustrates how stock buybacks, for S&P 500 stocks, have grown to exceed dividend payouts. The combined figure now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Stock Buybacks and Dividends compared to Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26853,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/07\/15\/ppi-and-beige-book-warn-of-broad-based-price-increases\/","url_meta":{"origin":9121,"position":2},"title":"PPI and Beige Book warn of broad-based price increases","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 15, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Producer prices surged, with broad PPI (all commodities) jumping to 19.5% on a year-on-year basis, while the retail-oriented final demand PPI index climbed 7.1%. Price increases are accelerating, with 6-month measures growing at annualized rates of 29.9% (all commodities) and 10.6% (final demand). Such high PPI readings have not been\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":21333,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/29\/sp-500-and-stock-market-bubbles\/","url_meta":{"origin":9121,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Another stock market bubble?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 29, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We see plenty of charts comparing major indices to GDP. Both the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 made new highs relative to GDP, warning that stock pricing is at a new extreme. But comparing indices like these to an economy-wide measure like GDP is inaccurate for two key reasons: Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18883,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/14\/sp-500-upside-limited-while-downside-risks-grow\/","url_meta":{"origin":9121,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Upside limited, while downside risks grow","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 14, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Corporate profits (before tax) ticked up slightly in the second quarter of 2019 but remain below 2006 levels in real terms. The chart below shows corporate profits adjusted for inflation using the GDP implicit price deflator. Growth in production of durable consumer goods remains week, reflecting poor consumer confidence. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11979,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/25\/are-us-stocks-really-over-valued\/","url_meta":{"origin":9121,"position":5},"title":"Are US stocks really over-valued?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Stock Market Capitalization Let us start with Warren Buffet's favorite market valuation ratio: stock market capitalization to GDP. I have modified this slightly, replacing GDP with GNP, because the former excludes offshore earnings \u2014 a significant factor for multinationals. The ratio of stock market capitalization to GNP now exceeds the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US stock market capitalization to GNP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-25-marketcap-gnp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9121"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9121\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9121"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9121"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}