{"id":9114,"date":"2014-02-05T02:03:06","date_gmt":"2014-02-05T07:03:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=9114"},"modified":"2014-02-05T02:03:06","modified_gmt":"2014-02-05T07:03:06","slug":"a-mis-leading-labor-market-indicator-liberty-street-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/05\/a-mis-leading-labor-market-indicator-liberty-street-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"A Mis-Leading Labor Market Indicator | Liberty Street Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From a paper by Samuel Kapon and Joseph Tracy at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>As the economy recovered and growth resumed, the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.7 percent. &#8230;..The employment-population (E\/P) ratio frequently is used as an additional labor market measure. The E\/P ratio is defined as the number of employed divided by the size of the working-age, noninstitutionalized population. An advantage of the E\/P ratio over the unemployment rate is that it is not impacted by discouraged workers who stop looking for employment.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"450\" height=\"320\" title=\"Employment-population (E\/P) ratio\" alt=\"Employment-population (E\/P) ratio\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/1e4ff-6a01348793456c970c01a5115195b7970c-450wi.jpg?resize=450%2C320&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Since the end of the recession, the E\/P ratio has largely remained constant\u2014that is, virtually none of the decline in the E\/P ratio from the Great Recession has been recovered to date. An implication is that the 7.6 million jobs added since the trough of employment in February 2010 has essentially just kept pace with growth in the working-age population. In its failure to recover, the E\/P ratio would seem to depict a much weaker labor market than indicated by the unemployment rate. An important question is whether this is a correct or a misleading characterization of the degree of the labor market recovery&#8230;&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org\/2014\/02\/a-mis-leading-labor-market-indicator.html'>A Mis-Leading Labor Market Indicator &#8211; Liberty Street Economics<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em><br \/>\nHat tip to Barry Ritholz.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From a paper by Samuel Kapon and Joseph Tracy at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: As the economy recovered and growth resumed, the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.7 percent. &#8230;..The employment-population (E\/P) ratio frequently is used as an additional labor market measure. The E\/P ratio is defined as the number of employed &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/05\/a-mis-leading-labor-market-indicator-liberty-street-economics\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;A Mis-Leading Labor Market Indicator | Liberty Street Economics&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,34],"tags":[1152,1233,3531,3570],"class_list":["post-9114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-ep-ratio","tag-employment-population-ratio","tag-unemployment","tag-usa"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Mis-Leading Labor Market Indicator | Liberty Street Economics - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Mis-Leading Labor Market Indicator | Liberty Street Economics - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From a paper by Samuel Kapon and Joseph Tracy at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: As the economy recovered and growth resumed, the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.7 percent. &#8230;..The employment-population (E\/P) ratio frequently is used as an additional labor market measure. 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Does that mean that all is well? Chart: The unemployment rate vs. Fed's measure of \"natural\" unemployment rate (NAIRU) over the past 20 years - pic.twitter.com\/zq2fxtcHLt\u2014 SoberLook.com (@SoberLook) July 28, 2014 Not if we consider\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Participation Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61087,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/20\/asx-200-falls-as-outlook-brightens\/","url_meta":{"origin":9114,"position":1},"title":"ASX 200 falls as outlook brightens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index rose to a more than two-year high, indicating a \"gradual recovery rather than a sudden surge,\" according to Matthew Hassan at Westpac. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in January 2025, but the trend remained at 4.0%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59679,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/05\/australia-rba-unlikely-to-play-santa\/","url_meta":{"origin":9114,"position":2},"title":"Australia: RBA unlikely to play Santa","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite the chorus of pleas from interest groups, the RBA is unlikely to deliver an early rate cut. Strong government spending prevents the slide into recession and increases upward pressure on prices. The ASX 200 also remains in a strong uptrend. ASX Stocks Australia's ASX 200 is testing resistance at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-05-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43272,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/02\/manufacturing-slows-but-labor-market-raises-hope-of-a-soft-landing\/","url_meta":{"origin":9114,"position":3},"title":"Manufacturing slows but labor market hope for a soft landing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"ISM continues to warn of slowing activity, with Manufacturing PMI at 46.4% for July. Readings below 50 signal contraction. Manufacturing new orders increased over the past two months. A reliable leading indicator for the overall economy, the reading of 47.3% warns that the sector continues to contract but at a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-01-ism-manufacturing-pmi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-01-ism-manufacturing-pmi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-01-ism-manufacturing-pmi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63461,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/01\/10\/us-market-snapshot-6\/","url_meta":{"origin":9114,"position":4},"title":"US Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 10, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current stock market valuation. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63816,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/08\/labor-market-tanks-but-fed-unlikely-to-intervene\/","url_meta":{"origin":9114,"position":5},"title":"Labor Market Tanks but Fed Unlikely to Intervene","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The job market shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Employment in cyclical sectors has declined by 260,000 jobs since September 2024, close to the 300,000 trigger for a recession. Average hourly earnings grew at 0.4% for the second month, an annualized rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Cryptocurrency&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Cryptocurrency","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/cryptocurrency\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-06-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-06-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-06-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9114","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9114\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}