{"id":9070,"date":"2014-01-29T06:31:53","date_gmt":"2014-01-29T11:31:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=9070"},"modified":"2014-01-29T06:31:53","modified_gmt":"2014-01-29T11:31:53","slug":"how-i-can-explain-96-of-your-portfolios-returns-seeking-alpha","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/29\/how-i-can-explain-96-of-your-portfolios-returns-seeking-alpha\/","title":{"rendered":"How I Can Explain 96% Of Your Portfolio&#8217;s Returns | Kiran Pande"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Great article from Kiran Pande:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Since the 1960s, we&#8217;ve been dependent on a model called CAPM (capital asset pricing model) to understand the relationship between risk and return, despite the fact that its measure of risk only explains about 70% of return. This measure, beta, makes the assumption that the entirety of every stock&#8217;s return is due to its exposure to the market. Put simply, every stock&#8217;s returns will equal a factor of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s returns. Thus, if a stock&#8217;s beta is 2.0, it will double the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s returns on a bull day and double its losses on a bear day. Obviously, this assumption is wrong almost every day, but the idea is that this factor is explaining most of a stock&#8217;s returns.<\/p>\n<p>All returns not explained by beta in the CAPM model are called alpha. This is traditionally accepted as the level of skill and value added by a portfolio&#8217;s manager&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>There is a whole laundry list of reasons not to use CAPM, beta, and alpha but here are some highlights&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>70% is not 100%, not even close<\/li>\n<li>Beta is symmetrical, risk is not&#8230; downside risk is rarely the same as upside risk.<\/li>\n<li>Since the market index used to calculate beta (usually the S&amp;P 500) contains stocks whose returns are supposedly dependent upon beta, these stocks&#8217; returns are somewhat dependent upon themselves.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These counterpoints do not render beta, alpha, and CAPM useless, but we can do much better. The Fama-French Three Factor model is the answer. Rather than a single factor (market performance), the model throws a size factor and a value factor into the mix, replacing much of the nebulous alpha term. With the addition of these factors, Fama and French boast that their model explains as much as 96% of returns with quantifiable measures.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1923321-how-i-can-explain-96-percent-of-your-portfolios-returns'>How I Can Explain 96% Of Your Portfolio&#039;s Returns | Seeking Alpha<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Great article from Kiran Pande: Since the 1960s, we&#8217;ve been dependent on a model called CAPM (capital asset pricing model) to understand the relationship between risk and return, despite the fact that its measure of risk only explains about 70% of return. This measure, beta, makes the assumption that the entirety of every stock&#8217;s return &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/29\/how-i-can-explain-96-of-your-portfolios-returns-seeking-alpha\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;How I Can Explain 96% Of Your Portfolio&#8217;s Returns | Kiran Pande&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37,57],"tags":[173,422,478,596,1288,2020,2754,3150],"class_list":["post-9070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-active-investing","category-stock-markets","tag-alpha","tag-beta","tag-book-to-market-value-ratio","tag-capm","tag-eugene-fama","tag-kenneth-french","tag-price-to-book-ratio","tag-small-caps"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How I Can Explain 96% Of Your Portfolio&#039;s Returns | Kiran Pande - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How I Can Explain 96% Of Your Portfolio&#039;s Returns | Kiran Pande - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Great article from Kiran Pande: Since the 1960s, we&#8217;ve been dependent on a model called CAPM (capital asset pricing model) to understand the relationship between risk and return, despite the fact that its measure of risk only explains about 70% of return. 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Aswath is a Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at NYU and teaches classes in corporate finance and valuation. The essay is lengthy, but shows great\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/53216-actonbubblebreakeven.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/53216-actonbubblebreakeven.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/53216-actonbubblebreakeven.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/53216-actonbubblebreakeven.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/53216-actonbubblebreakeven.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10633,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/18\/under-what-circumstances-should-you-worry-that-the-stock-market-is-too-high-the-honest-broker-for-the-week-of-august-16-2014-brad-delongs-grasping-reality\/","url_meta":{"origin":9070,"position":5},"title":"Under What Circumstances Should You Worry That the Stock Market Is &#8220;too High&#8221;? | Brad DeLong","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 18, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Brad DeLong discusses Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio, a stock-price measure he helped develop: ....on average, at a ten-year horizon, for any CAPE ratio below 35 the S&P has delivered average real asset returns pretty much outclassing all other major asset classes..... Thus you can see why I am relatively unsatisfied\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/fd517-6a00e551f08003883401b7c6cdab85970b-pi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/fd517-6a00e551f08003883401b7c6cdab85970b-pi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/fd517-6a00e551f08003883401b7c6cdab85970b-pi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9070","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9070"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9070\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}