{"id":8158,"date":"2013-07-23T05:06:46","date_gmt":"2013-07-23T09:06:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=8158"},"modified":"2013-07-23T05:06:46","modified_gmt":"2013-07-23T09:06:46","slug":"economonitor-beijings-new-leaders-are-right-to-hold-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/23\/economonitor-beijings-new-leaders-are-right-to-hold-back\/","title":{"rendered":"EconoMonitor \u00bb Beijing\u2019s New Leaders Are Right to Hold Back"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Michael Pettis argues that China cannot stimulate its economy out of trouble:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>There are still bulls out there who insist that China is out of the woods and making a strong recovery, for example former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Stephen Grenville, who argues in his article strangely titled China doomsayers run out of arguments: <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The missing element from the low growth narrative is that unemployment would rise, provoking a stimulatory policy response. China would extend the transition and put up with low-return investment recall that when unemployment was the issue, Keynes was prepared to put people to work digging holes and filling them in rather than have unemployment rise sharply. To be convincing, the low-growth scenario needs to explain why this policy response will not be effective.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>It seems to me that the reason why simply \u201cprovoking a stimulatory policy response\u201d won\u2019t help China has been explained many times, even recently by former China bulls. Of course more stimulus will indeed cause GDP growth to pick up, as Grenville notes, but it will do so by exacerbating the gap between the growth in debt and the growth in debt-servicing capacity. Because too much debt and a huge amount of overvalued assets is precisely the problem facing China, it is hard to believe that spending more borrowed money on increasing already excessive capacity can possibly be a useful resolution of slower Chinese growth.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economonitor.com\/blog\/2013\/07\/beijings-new-leaders-are-right-to-hold-back\/?utm_source=contactology&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=EconoMonitor%20Highlights%3A%20White%20House%20Down\">EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor \u00bb Beijing\u2019s New Leaders Are Right to Hold Back<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Michael Pettis argues that China cannot stimulate its economy out of trouble: There are still bulls out there who insist that China is out of the woods and making a strong recovery, for example former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Stephen Grenville, who argues in his article strangely titled China doomsayers run &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/23\/economonitor-beijings-new-leaders-are-right-to-hold-back\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;EconoMonitor \u00bb Beijing\u2019s New Leaders Are Right to Hold Back&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,45],"tags":[663,1527,1840,2592,3246],"class_list":["post-8158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-debt-levels","tag-china","tag-gdp-growth","tag-infrastructure-investment","tag-over-investment","tag-stimulus"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EconoMonitor \u00bb Beijing\u2019s New Leaders Are Right to Hold Back - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EconoMonitor \u00bb Beijing\u2019s New Leaders Are Right to Hold Back - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Michael Pettis argues that China cannot stimulate its economy out of trouble: There are still bulls out there who insist that China is out of the woods and making a strong recovery, for example former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Stephen Grenville, who argues in his article strangely titled China doomsayers run &hellip; 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My argument is that subject to two very plausible assumptions, every economic policy Beijing implements ultimately can be abstracted to one choice\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":40639,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/30\/michael-pettis-the-china-shock-is-coming\/","url_meta":{"origin":8158,"position":1},"title":"Michael Pettis: The China Shock is Coming","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 30, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/QcdPMOMS7N8 Michael Pettis is a professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing and one of the foremost Western experts on China, having lived there for almost two decades. He explains the Chinese growth model, why it no longer works, and the hard choices ahead. China's Growth Model China's growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Non-Financial Credit\/GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11066,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/07\/reserve-currency-status-privilege-or-burden\/","url_meta":{"origin":8158,"position":2},"title":"Reserve currency status: Privilege or burden?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 7, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Is the reserve currency status of the US Dollar a privilege or a burden? Michael Pettis suggests the latter and argues in favor of constraining unlimited purchases of US or other government bonds by international trading partners like China and Japan: ...it is actually quite easy to list the conditions\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11233,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/30\/should-beijing-raise-subway-fares-michael-pettis\/","url_meta":{"origin":8158,"position":3},"title":"Should Beijing raise subway fares? | Michael Pettis","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 30, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Michael Pettis' argues that not only are SOEs \"destroying value in the aggregate on a huge scale\" but misallocated investment is endemic in China. I have to confess that the reason I started saying in 2006-07 that China was eventually going to replace 1980s Japan as the global archetype of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":39471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/10\/australia-hard-times\/","url_meta":{"origin":8158,"position":4},"title":"Australia: Hard times","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"You don't have to be an Einstein to figure out that 2023 is going to be a tough year. Australian consumers have already worked this out, with sentiment plunging to record lows. The bellwether of the Australian economy is housing. Prices are tumbling, with annual growth now close to zero.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-09-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":13252,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/08\/the-real-reason-for-low-savings-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":8158,"position":5},"title":"The real reason for low savings rates","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 8, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Also from Michael Pettis: This is the great irony of the global financial crisis. China, Russia, and France want to lead the charge to strip the US of its exorbitant privilege, and the US resists. And yet if the US were to take steps to prevent foreigners from accumulating US\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8158"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8158\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}