{"id":805,"date":"2014-09-27T08:28:30","date_gmt":"2014-09-27T08:28:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=805"},"modified":"2014-09-27T08:28:30","modified_gmt":"2014-09-27T08:28:30","slug":"sp-500-broadening-wedge-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/27\/sp-500-broadening-wedge-2\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 broadening wedge"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>We are at the September quarter-end and can expect stock weakness to continue into October<\/li>\n<li>The Dollar is rising<\/li>\n<li>Gold and crude oil are falling<\/li>\n<li>European stocks are bearish<\/li>\n<li>Asian stocks are bearish despite China showing strength<\/li>\n<li>US stocks reflect a bull market<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Dow Jones Europe Index is testing primary support at 320. Breach would signal a down-trend. Follow-through below 315 would confirm. Penetration of the rising trendline and 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero both strengthen the bear signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Europe Index\" alt=\"Dow Jones Europe Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-djeu.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 320 &#8211; ( 340 &#8211; 320 ) = 300<\/p>\n<p>Dow Jones Asia Index broke primary support at 3200 despite bullishness on the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite. Expect a test of support at 3000 (at the rising trendline). Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would further strengthen the bear signal. Follow-through below 3000 would confirm a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones Asia Index\" alt=\"Dow Jones Asia Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-dja.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 &#8211; 2800 ) = 3400<\/p>\n<p>Shanghai Composite Index, however, continues to test resistance at 2350. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-ssec.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bear in mind that Dow Asia and Dow Europe are priced in USD and reflect strength in the US Dollar as well as weakness in local markets &mdash; though the two are closely connected.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is consolidating around the 2000 level in a broadening wedge formation. Do not be surprised if the index rallies early next week, to test medium-term resistance at 2020. Fund managers are normally willing to support the market at quarter-end and lock in quarterly performance bonuses. But this is likely to be followed by weakness in October as they sell off non-performing stocks and increase cash holdings until new opportunities present themselves. Breakout below the broadening wedge &mdash; and penetration of both support at 1950 and the (secondary) rising trendline &mdash; would warn of a correction. A large volume spike from triple-witching hour on September 19th, however, has exaggerated weakness on Twiggs Money Flow. Breakout above 2020 would signal a fresh advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 &#8211; 1900 ) = 2100<\/p>\n<p>CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains in the low range (below 20) typical of a bull market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 VIX\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 is testing support at 5300\/5350. Penetration of the rising trendline warns of a correction to 5000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, after a long-term bearish divergence, also signals weakness. Breach of 5300 would confirm a test of 5000. Recovery above 5550 is unlikely, but would suggest another test of 5650.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"ASX 200\" alt=\"ASX 200\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-xjo.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 &#8211; 5350 ) = 5950<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We are at the September quarter-end and can expect stock weakness to continue into October The Dollar is rising Gold and crude oil are falling European stocks are bearish Asian stocks are bearish despite China showing strength US stocks reflect a bull market Dow Jones Europe Index is testing primary support at 320. Breach would &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/27\/sp-500-broadening-wedge-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500 broadening wedge&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[64,251,615,1101,1105,3010,3100,3496],"class_list":["post-805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-vix","tag-asx-200","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-dow-jones-asia-index","tag-dow-jones-europe-index","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-triple-witching-hour"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500 broadening wedge - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 broadening wedge - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We are at the September quarter-end and can expect stock weakness to continue into October The Dollar is rising Gold and crude oil are falling European stocks are bearish Asian stocks are bearish despite China showing strength US stocks reflect a bull market Dow Jones Europe Index is testing primary support at 320. 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