{"id":8040,"date":"2013-07-08T21:44:21","date_gmt":"2013-07-09T01:44:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=8040"},"modified":"2013-07-08T21:44:21","modified_gmt":"2013-07-09T01:44:21","slug":"rude-awakening-awaits-western-economies-wsj","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/08\/rude-awakening-awaits-western-economies-wsj\/","title":{"rendered":"Rude Awakening Awaits Western Economies | WSJ"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Michael J. Casey at WSJ interviews HSBC group chief economist Stephen King, author of <em>When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Mr. King\u2019s thesis&#8230;.. is that we in the West are in line for a shock when we discover that the high-growth rates to which we\u2019re accustomed aren\u2019t coming back. In the U.S., we\u2019ve been wrongly budgeting for a return to 3.5% average real growth rates that persisted through the second half of the 20th century \u2014 an affliction suffered by both policymakers and households that he calls an \u201coptimism bias\u201d \u2014 and yet even before the financial crisis destroyed trillions of dollars of wealth the economy was only clocking gains of 2.5% per year. Forget worrying about the post-crisis onset of a Japan-style \u201clost decade,\u201d Mr. King says. \u201cWe have been through a lost decade already. \u201dAmong the reasons for this long-term shift to a slower potential growth rate, he cites the exhaustion of a various one-off productivity gains that boosted growth after World War II: the entry of women into the workforce; the liberalization of world trade; a tripling in rates of consumer credit founded on an unsustainable increase in housing prices; and education. These gains are no longer to be had, he says, but policymakers are blind to that fact and so are burdening the economies of the U.S., Europe and Japan with long-term debts.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>While I agree that we are unlikely to see a resumption of the rapid debt growth of the last 3 decades, this should contribute to lower inflation and greater stability, without a credit-fueled boom-bust cycle, that could partially offset the negative effects. I also question whether productivity gains are really exhausted, or if this is a temporary after-effect of low, post-GFC capital investment. There is ample evidence that the global economy is slowing and productivity gains will fall &#8212; if one is prepared to ignore evidence to the contrary such as the rise of automation, advances in genetics, nanotechnology, sustainable energy and slowing global population growth &#8212; which should alleviate the poverty trap that many countries are still in. The researcher has to beware of <em>confirmation bias<\/em>, where they gather data to support a preconceived opinion. <\/p>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2013\/07\/08\/horror-story-rude-awakening-awaits-western-economies\/?mod=djemRTE_h'>Horror Story: Rude Awakening Awaits Western Economies &#8211; Real Time Economics &#8211; WSJ<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Michael J. Casey at WSJ interviews HSBC group chief economist Stephen King, author of When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence: Mr. King\u2019s thesis&#8230;.. is that we in the West are in line for a shock when we discover that the high-growth rates to which we\u2019re accustomed aren\u2019t coming back. In the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/08\/rude-awakening-awaits-western-economies-wsj\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Rude Awakening Awaits Western Economies | WSJ&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[881,1527,1828,2097,2784,3701],"class_list":["post-8040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","tag-credit-growth","tag-gdp-growth","tag-inflation","tag-liberalization-of-world-trade","tag-productivity","tag-women-in-the-workforce"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rude Awakening Awaits Western Economies | WSJ - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rude Awakening Awaits Western Economies | WSJ - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Michael J. Casey at WSJ interviews HSBC group chief economist Stephen King, author of When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence: Mr. King\u2019s thesis&#8230;.. is that we in the West are in line for a shock when we discover that the high-growth rates to which we\u2019re accustomed aren\u2019t coming back. 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That strategy is unsustainable. Unless job and wage growth pick up, U.S. consumers don\u2019t have the financial heft to save the global economy. Read\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1897,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/11\/14\/europes-economy-shows-weakness-wsj-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":8040,"position":1},"title":"Europe&#8217;s Economy Shows Weakness &#8211; WSJ.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 14, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Italy was forced to pay its highest interest rate since the euro's creation to sell five-year bonds\u2014a sign of skepticism that new governments in Italy and Greece will be able to simultaneously boost economic growth and reduce high public-debt levels......Industrial production in the euro zone plunged 2% in September from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13019,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/16\/fed-dials-back-pace-of-rate-hikes-wsj\/","url_meta":{"origin":8040,"position":2},"title":"Fed Dials Back Pace of Rate Hikes | WSJ","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 16, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Harriet Torry and Jon Hilsenrath: Federal Reserve officials dimmed their view of the economy and said they likely won\u2019t raise interest rates as swiftly as they had previously anticipated, a nod to lingering risks posed by soft global growth and financial-market volatility. 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Neither consumers nor businesses are in the mood to borrow in a major way. Veda's quarterly Consumer Credit Demand Index, released Monday, showed consumer credit demand\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14907,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/10\/robust-job-growth-solid-labor-market-wsj\/","url_meta":{"origin":8040,"position":5},"title":"Robust Job Growth, Solid Labor Market | WSJ","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 10, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From WSJ: The pace of job creation remained robust in February, with payrolls rising by a seasonally adjusted 235,000 new jobs, the Labor Department said. Evidence of continued health in the U.S. labor market likely cleared the way for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates next week. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8040"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8040\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}