{"id":7871,"date":"2013-06-03T23:06:51","date_gmt":"2013-06-04T03:06:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=7871"},"modified":"2013-06-03T23:06:51","modified_gmt":"2013-06-04T03:06:51","slug":"the-history-of-australian-land-prices-leith-van-onselen-macrobusiness-com-au","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/03\/the-history-of-australian-land-prices-leith-van-onselen-macrobusiness-com-au\/","title":{"rendered":"The history of Australian land prices | Leith van Onselen | Macrobusiness.com.au"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Re-blogged with kind permission from <a title=\"Macrobusiness: Unconventional Economist\" href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2013\/06\/the-history-of-australian-land-prices\/\" target=\"_blank\">Macrobusiness.com.au <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property on June 4, 2013<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" height=\"200\" width=\"200\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Australian Housing\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/ScreenHunter_22-Mar.-06-18.401-200x200.jpg?resize=200%2C200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/leith-van-onselen\/\" title=\"Macrobusiness: Leith van Onselen\" target=\"_blank\">Leith van Onselen<\/a><\/p>\n<p>As argued previously, the sharp escalation of Australian home prices since the mid-1990s has been caused primarily by a surge in land values, which roughly doubled in size relative to the size of the economy, as measured by GDP (see next chart).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Housing Values to GDP\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/ScreenHunter_21-Jun.-04-10.49.gif?w=525\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The explosion of land values is also reflected by the below chart showing the growth of house values (including both structures and land) far outstripping the growth of the ABS project homes index, which measures the cost of building new dwellings (excluding the land):<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"House Prices v. Construction Costs\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/ScreenHunter_19-Jun.-04-10.18.gif?w=525\" \/><\/p>\n<p>On Friday night, Prosper Australia released a brand new long-run dataset on Australian land values, which has been painstakingly developed by Philip Soos, who is a research Masters candidate at Deakin University as well as a researcher for Prosper Australia. The data has been pulled together from a variety of public and private sources, including from economists Robert Scott, Doug Herps, Alan Taylor, Terry Dwyer and Nigel Stapledon.<\/p>\n<p>While there is lots of useful data in the series, my favourite dataset is illustrated by the below chart showing the ratio of Australian land prices (residential, commercial and rural) to GDP:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Land v. GDP\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/ScreenHunter_20-Jun.-04-10.26.gif?w=525\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As you can see, land prices relative to GDP doubled between 1996 and 2010. And while land values have deflated somewhat, it would appear they have much further to fall.<\/p>\n<p>My long held view is that residential land prices (and by extension house prices) will experience a \u201cslow melt\u201d whereby values relative to GDP deflate back to their mid-1990s (pre-boom) level. The big question is whether this deflation will occur via prices falling outright or by GDP growth outstripping price growth. With any luck (from a financial stability perspective), the adjustment will take place more through real price reductions than nominal price falls. But the process could take a long time.<\/p>\n<p>Soos\u2019 land price dataset can be <a href=\"http:\/\/www.prosper.org.au\/land-data-series\/\" title=\"Land Price Dataset\" target=\"_blank\">downloaded from here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Re-blogged with kind permission from Macrobusiness.com.au Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property on June 4, 2013 By Leith van Onselen As argued previously, the sharp escalation of Australian home prices since the mid-1990s has been caused primarily by a surge in land values, which roughly doubled in size relative to the size of the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/03\/the-history-of-australian-land-prices-leith-van-onselen-macrobusiness-com-au\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The history of Australian land prices | Leith van Onselen | Macrobusiness.com.au&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,5,10],"tags":[2924],"class_list":["post-7871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-economy","category-housing-economy","tag-residential-land-prices"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The history of Australian land prices | Leith van Onselen | Macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The history of Australian land prices | Leith van Onselen | Macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Re-blogged with kind permission from Macrobusiness.com.au Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property on June 4, 2013 By Leith van Onselen As argued previously, the sharp escalation of Australian home prices since the mid-1990s has been caused primarily by a surge in land values, which roughly doubled in size relative to the size of the &hellip; 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Hat tip to Leith van Onselen at Macrobusiness.com.au. He also highlights the disparity between the official unemployment rate of 5.7%, published by the ABS, and the 9.5% unofficial rate as measured by Roy Morgan Research.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/59WUACBt8g8\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":8428,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/09\/16\/imbalances-in-the-australian-housing-market-chris-joye\/","url_meta":{"origin":7871,"position":1},"title":"Imbalances in the Australian housing market | Chris Joye","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 16, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Chris Joye from the Financial Review warns on Radio National that imbalances that may be developing in the Australian housing market: http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Z4kTC0ie2HE Hat tip to Leith van Onselen at Macrobusiness.com.au who comments: \"My only observation is that governments of all persuasions have for too long abrogated their responsibilities for housing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/Z4kTC0ie2HE\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":13012,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/15\/the-best-indicator-of-house-prices-points-down-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":7871,"position":2},"title":"The best indicator of house prices points down | MacroBusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 15, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Leith van Onselen Among all of the factors that drive house price growth, arguably the most important is the flow of housing finance commitments, which has shown an incredibly strong correlation with dwelling price growth over recent decades. The above chart tracks RP Data\u2019s annual dwelling price growth at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/screenhunter_12022-mar-15-06-37-660x514.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/screenhunter_12022-mar-15-06-37-660x514.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/screenhunter_12022-mar-15-06-37-660x514.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8507,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/10\/01\/crawling-not-walking-to-non-mining-led-growth-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":7871,"position":3},"title":"Crawling, not walking, to non-mining led growth | MacroBusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 1, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Leith van Onselen quotes the latest JP Morgan report on the Australian economy: ...risk of a recession is \u201cinevitably higher now than usual; the economy has built up vulnerabilities over time that have been masked by the continued growth in output and national income\u2026 the downside of avoiding recession is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8143,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/21\/australia-nz-housing-wealth-to-disposable-income\/","url_meta":{"origin":7871,"position":4},"title":"Australia &#038; NZ: Housing wealth to disposable income","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 21, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Leith van Onselen posts this chart comparing housing wealth to disposable income. Australia and New Zealand are the worst offenders, with ratios close to 5:1, while the US never reached 3:1 even at its sub-prime peak.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10300,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/14\/pickering-australian-housing-severely-overvalued\/","url_meta":{"origin":7871,"position":5},"title":"Pickering: Australian housing \u201cseverely overvalued\u201d","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 14, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting view from Leith van Onselen: Business Spectator\u2019s Callam Pickering has produced an interesting assessment of the RBA\u2019s new research paper, which attempts to determine whether Australian homes are overvalued versus renting. Like my analysis posted earlier, Pickering also concludes that Australian housing is significantly overvalued given the likely prospects\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ScreenHunter_3304 Jul. 15 10.21","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3304-Jul.-15-10.21-200x200.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7871\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}