{"id":7701,"date":"2013-05-05T21:48:26","date_gmt":"2013-05-06T01:48:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=7701"},"modified":"2013-05-05T21:48:26","modified_gmt":"2013-05-06T01:48:26","slug":"sp-500-and-treasury-yields-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/05\/sp-500-and-treasury-yields-surge\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 and Treasury yields surge"},"content":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields rallied sharply on Friday, breaking the new resistance level at 1.70%. Follow-through above 1.80% would confirm the decline is over, signaling another test of resistance at 2.00%\/2.10%.
\n\"10-Year
\nOn the monthly chart we can see that breakout above resistance at 2.00%\/2.10% would signal a primary up-trend and possible test of 4.00% in the next few years. Only a breakout above 4.00%, however, would end the secular bear-trend of the last three decades.
\n\"10-Year<\/p>\n

Last week Treasury yields were falling while stocks were rising. That changed on Friday, with the S&P 500 breaking through resistance at 1600, suggesting an advance to 1650. The index has exceeded its target of 1600* and seems overdue for a correction, but bullish sentiment is rising and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent<\/em> (attributed to John Maynard Keynes). Oscillation above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates a healthy primary up-trend. A June quarter-end below 1500 now looks unlikely, but would present a long-term bear signal<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1475 + ( 1475 – 1350 ) = 1600<\/p>\n

Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing support at $90. Respect of the rising trendline would signal the primary up-trend is intact. Recovery above $100 would confirm.
\n\"Fedex\"<\/p>\n

Structural flaws in the US economy have not been addressed and uncertainty remains high, despite low values on the VIX. House prices are rising, largely due to institutional buying, but the overhang of shadow inventory is expected to delay recovery of housing construction. Mamta Badkar at Business Insider<\/a> reports:<\/p>\n

Shadow inventory fell 18 per cent year-over-year in January to 2.2 million units, according to CoreLogic\u2019s latest report. This represents nine months\u2019 supply.
\n…..down 28 per cent from its 2010 peak of 3 million units.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

As traders we have to follow the trend, but in times like this it is important to remain vigilant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10-Year Treasury yields rallied sharply on Friday, breaking the new resistance level at 1.70%. Follow-through above 1.80% would confirm the decline is over, signaling another test of resistance at 2.00%\/2.10%. On the monthly chart we can see that breakout above resistance at 2.00%\/2.10% would signal a primary up-trend and possible test of 4.00% in the … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “S&P 500 and Treasury yields surge”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,57,34],"tags":[70,1362,3014],"class_list":["post-7701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-fedex","tag-sp-500-index"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500 and Treasury yields surge - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500 and Treasury yields surge - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10-Year Treasury yields rallied sharply on Friday, breaking the new resistance level at 1.70%. 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Breakout above 2.10% would signal a primary up-trend and possible test of 4.00% in the next few years. Only breakout above 4.00%, however, would end the 31-year secular bear-trend. The S&P 500 completed a key reversal (or outside reversal), indicating selling pressure.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7856,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/03\/bearish-signs-for-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":7701,"position":1},"title":"Bearish signs for stocks","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 3, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.05\/2.10% with a key reversal (or outside reversal) on Friday, signaling a primary up-trend and possible test of 4.00% in the next few years. The tall shadow on Friday's candle, however, warns of another test of the new support level before the trend gets\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7907,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/16\/sp500-up-trend-despite-test-of-support-at-1600\/","url_meta":{"origin":7701,"position":2},"title":"S&P500 up-trend despite test of support at 1600","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 16, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"A monthly chart shows 10-year Treasury yields continue to respect support at 2.00%, confirming the primary up-trend. Expect resistance at 2.50%, but the long-term (multi-year) target is 4.00%, where the 2009 high coincides with a descending trendline from the 31-year secular bear-trend. Rising yields reflect market expectations that the economy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7761,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/20\/vix-low-sp-500-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":7701,"position":3},"title":"VIX low S&P 500 high","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 20, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"The VIX CBOE Volatility Index is below 15%, indicating investor confidence. But the risk premium on Baa-grade bonds (Moody's lowest investment grade, compared to the 10-year Treasury yield) remains elevated. Corporate bond investors are still wary. 10-Year Treasury yields are headed for a test of resistance at 2.00%\/2.10%. There is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7942,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/25\/sp500-holds-strong-while-canada-and-europe-weaken\/","url_meta":{"origin":7701,"position":4},"title":"S&P500 holds strong while Canada and Europe weaken","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 25, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields broke resistance at 2.50% as bond-holders offload their positions. Expect weak retracement to test the new support level at 2.00%, but recovery above 2.50% is likely and would signal a long-term advance to test resistance at 4.00%. Breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend. Rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7896,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/11\/sp500-recovers-as-bond-yields-rise-but-tsx-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":7701,"position":5},"title":"S&P500 recovers as bond yields rise, but TSX weakens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 11, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields respected support at 2.00%, confirming the primary up-trend. Only breakout above 4.00% would end the 31-year secular bear-trend, but a rise to there would result in an almost 50% loss for bondholders. Rising yields reflect market expectations that the economy will recover and the Fed will curtail\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7701\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}