{"id":7631,"date":"2013-05-02T02:39:49","date_gmt":"2013-05-02T06:39:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=7631"},"modified":"2013-05-02T02:39:49","modified_gmt":"2013-05-02T06:39:49","slug":"gold-and-commodities-fall-as-bonds-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/02\/gold-and-commodities-fall-as-bonds-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold and commodities fall as bonds rise"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold is testing short-term support at $1450. Breach would be likely to penetrate the rising trendline, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Reversal below $1400 would warn of a further down-swing. Breach of $1320 would confirm, with the next major support level at the 2008 high of $1000.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300<\/p>\n

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is falling rapidly. The index behaves like a leveraged gold instrument. Fixed costs of extraction make miners extremely sensitive to relatively small fluctuations in the gold price — which is why many miners hedge. The index is headed for a test of its 2008 low, which equated to a spot price of $700\/ounce. I am not predicting that gold will fall below its cost of production, variously estimated at between $900 and $1150 per ounce, but expect further weakness.
\n\"Gold
\nMy bullish outlook for gold is fading (into the future) as deflationary pressures faced by central banks<\/a> grow.<\/p>\n

Treasury Yields<\/h3>\n

Money continues to flow into bonds — reflecting a lower inflation outlook — and further outflows from gold are likely. Ten-year treasury yields broke support at 1.70% — prior to 2012 the lowest level in the 200 year history of the US Treasury<\/a> — and a test of the all-time low at 1.40% is likely.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/h3>\n

Brent Crude is headed for a re-test of its former support level at $106\/barrel. Respect is likely and would offer a target of $92*. Nymex WTI recovered above $90\/barrel, but further weakness is expected. Reversal below $90 would warn of a swing to the lower trend channel around $84 . Falling crude prices are a healthy long-term sign for the economy, but indicate falling demand and medium-term weakness.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 99 – ( 106 – 99 ) = 92<\/p>\n

Peter Glover and Michael Economides in The Coming Arab Winter<\/a> write:<\/p>\n

Within just a few years of it taking off, the US shale gas and oil industry is enabling America to become increasingly self-sufficient with imports from the Middle East greatly reduced. The US is closing in on eclipsing Saudi energy production capacity. The 2012 edition of the IEA\u2019s World Energy Outlook says America will surpass Saudi as the world\u2019s biggest oil producer by 2020; such is the rate of current US oil development it could well be before then.<\/p>\n

According to one recent report, the dramatic expansion of US production could push global spare oil capacity to exceed 8 million barrels per day. At that point OPEC could lose its ability to set or influence prices and global oil prices could drop sharply. While that would take a heavy toll on many Western energy producers, it would prove disastrous for OPEC\u2019s member states.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The peak oil myth is discredited. Expect long-term weakness in crude prices as the US, China, Australia and elsewhere ratchet up shale gas production.<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/h3>\n

Commodity prices continue to diverge from stocks, with the Dow Jones – UBS Commodity Index headed for primary support at 125. Breach would warn of a decline to the 2008 low of 100. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a down-trend; reversal below the 2012 low of -15% would strengthen the signal. Stock prices are precariously high in relation to commodities. Recovery of US housing is unlikely to drive a massive construction boom as there must still be significant over-supply of existing units.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold is testing short-term support at $1450. Breach would be likely to penetrate the rising trendline, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Reversal below $1400 would warn of a further down-swing. Breach of $1320 would confirm, with the next major support level at the 2008 high of $1000. * Target calculation: 1550 – … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Gold and commodities fall as bonds rise”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41,44,6,9,34],"tags":[70,1073,1580,1779,2529,3204],"class_list":["post-7631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-dollar-index","tag-gold-bugs-index","tag-ice-brent-crude","tag-nymex-wti-light-crude","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"\nGold and commodities fall as bonds rise - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold and commodities fall as bonds rise - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gold is testing short-term support at $1450. Breach would be likely to penetrate the rising trendline, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Reversal below $1400 would warn of a further down-swing. 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Breach would penetrate the rising trendline, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Target for the decline would be $1200*. Breakout above $1500 is unlikely, but would test $1550.* Target calculation: 1350 - (\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7498,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/18\/gold-will-it-bounce\/","url_meta":{"origin":7631,"position":1},"title":"Gold: Will it bounce?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 18, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"\"Never try to catch a falling safe\" warn the pundits .... \"Wait for it to bounce.\" So far we have not seen much bounce. After finding short-term support at $1320 on the 2-hourly chart, gold rallied to $1400 before retreating to test $1360. The long tail at $1360 indicates buying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7901,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/12\/gold-and-dollar-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":7631,"position":2},"title":"Gold and Dollar fall","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold retreated below support at $1400, indicating the end of the bear rally. Expect a test of primary support at $1320\/$1340. Yesterday's long tail is evidence of short-term buying pressure, so breach of primary support is not a certainty. Respect would suggest another test of $1400. * Target calculation: 1350\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7335,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/27\/gold-bugs-warn-of-weakness\/","url_meta":{"origin":7631,"position":3},"title":"Gold Bugs warn of weakness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 27, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"The Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) representing un-hedged gold stocks has under-performed spot gold since the GFC in 2008, with a safe-haven premium priced into the metal. But $HUI diverged strongly in mid-2012, commencing a strong primary down-trend while spot gold continues to range above support (at $1500\/ounce). On the weekly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8875,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/12\/19\/gold-miners-warn-of-weaker-spot-price\/","url_meta":{"origin":7631,"position":4},"title":"Gold miners warn of weaker spot price","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 19, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"The Gold Bugs Index, often a leading indicator of spot prices, is headed for a test of the 2008 low at 150 after breaking support at 210. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. The ASX Gold Index also signals another decline after breaking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7748,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/16\/gold-and-commodities-fall-while-dollar-and-bond-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":7631,"position":5},"title":"Gold and commodities fall while Dollar and bond yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 16, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke the rising trendline and support at $1440\/$1450, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Target of $1200* for the decline would be confirmed by a breach of primary support. * Target calculation: 1350 - ( 1500 - 1350 ) = 1200 Treasury Yields Ten-year treasury yields broke\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7631"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7631\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}