{"id":7498,"date":"2013-04-18T03:03:18","date_gmt":"2013-04-18T07:03:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=7498"},"modified":"2013-04-18T03:03:18","modified_gmt":"2013-04-18T07:03:18","slug":"gold-will-it-bounce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/18\/gold-will-it-bounce\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold: Will it bounce?"},"content":{"rendered":"

“Never try to catch a falling safe” warn the pundits …. “Wait for it to bounce.”<\/p>\n

So far we have not seen much bounce. After finding short-term support at $1320 on the 2-hourly chart, gold rallied to $1400 before retreating to test $1360. The long tail at $1360 indicates buying pressure and we should see another test of $1400. Breakout would indicate a rally to $1440*, but bear market rallies are notoriously unreliable and prudent traders are likely to avoid. Reversal below $1360 is likely and would warn of another down-swing.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1400 + ( 1400 – 1360 ) = 1440<\/p>\n

On the monthly chart we can see that $1300* is the obvious support level, but the severity of the fall indicates this is a bear market and will take time to recover. Breach of $1300 would signal another decline, with the next major support level at the 2008 high of $1000.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300<\/p>\n

I am still bullish on gold in the long-term. We face a decade of easy monetary policy from central banks, with competing devaluations as each nation struggles to recover at the expense of the other. I would recommend this WSJ interview with PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian<\/a> for its realistic long-term outlook.<\/p>\n

Dollar Index<\/h3>\n

There has been no major strengthening of the Dollar, which one would expect if gold fell because of downward revision of the market’s  inflation outlook. Breakout above resistance at 84.00 would signal an advance to 89.00\/90.00, but there is still much work to be done.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/h3>\n

Crude oil prices fell sharply, signaling a primary down-trend. Interestingly, Brent Crude broke its primary support level at $106\/barrel on April 8th, 4 days ahead of gold. Nymex WTI followed the next week and will soon be testing support at $84\/barrel. Falling crude prices are a healthy long-term sign for the economy, but indicate medium-term weakness with weak demand anticipated in the year ahead.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/h3>\n

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index fell sharply in response to gold and oil. Divergence from the S&P 500 looks even more extreme and stock prices are likely to fall.<\/p>\n

\"Commodities\"<\/p>\n

Slowing growth in China — the major driver of global commodity prices in recent years — is part of the problem, but aggressive action by Japan is also destabilizing global markets.<\/p>\n

\"Commodities\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Never try to catch a falling safe” warn the pundits …. “Wait for it to bounce.” So far we have not seen much bounce. After finding short-term support at $1320 on the 2-hourly chart, gold rallied to $1400 before retreating to test $1360. The long tail at $1360 indicates buying pressure and we should see … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Gold: Will it bounce?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,35],"tags":[810,1073,1127,1779,2529,3204],"class_list":["post-7498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gold-commodities","category-us-dollar-index","tag-continuous-commodity-index","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-ubs-commodity-index","tag-ice-brent-crude","tag-nymex-wti-light-crude","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"\nGold: Will it bounce? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold: Will it bounce? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"“Never try to catch a falling safe” warn the pundits …. “Wait for it to bounce.” So far we have not seen much bounce. 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Failure of support would visit the primary level at $1200\/ounce, while respect would test $1440. Breach of the downward trend channel indicates the primary trend is slowing, but recovery above $1440, and a primary up-trend, seem some way off \u2014 as does\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8183,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/31\/gold-consolidates-as-dollar-and-commodities-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":7498,"position":1},"title":"Gold consolidates as dollar and commodities fall","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 31, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is consolidating in a narrow range between $1300 and $1350\/ounce. Penetration of the descending trendline indicates that a bottom is forming. Reversal below $1300 would suggest another test of primary support at $1200, but breakout above $1350 is as likely and would target $1400. A rally to $1400 would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7901,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/12\/gold-and-dollar-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":7498,"position":2},"title":"Gold and Dollar fall","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold retreated below support at $1400, indicating the end of the bear rally. Expect a test of primary support at $1320\/$1340. Yesterday's long tail is evidence of short-term buying pressure, so breach of primary support is not a certainty. Respect would suggest another test of $1400. * Target calculation: 1350\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7729,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/09\/gold-rally-falters-while-bond-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":7498,"position":3},"title":"Gold rally falters, while bond yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 9, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold's bear rally has run out of steam, with continued tests of support at $1440\/$1450. Breach would penetrate the rising trendline, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Target for the decline would be $1200*. Breakout above $1500 is unlikely, but would test $1550.* Target calculation: 1350 - (\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8133,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/18\/crude-rallies-while-gold-and-commodities-stall\/","url_meta":{"origin":7498,"position":4},"title":"Crude rallies while gold and commodities stall","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 18, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is consolidating in a narrow range below resistance at $1300 -- a bullish sign. Upward breakout would penetrate the descending trendline, suggesting a bottom is forming.\u00a0 Reversal below $1270, however, would indicate another test of $1200. Failure of support at $1200 would offer a medium-term target of $1100*. *\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8160,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/07\/24\/gold-rises-as-the-dollar-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":7498,"position":5},"title":"Gold rises as the dollar falls","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 24, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold broke resistance at $1300\/ounce, penetration of the descending trendline indicating that a bottom is forming. Reversal below $1300 would suggest another test of primary support at $1200. Respect of support at $1300 and breakout above $1350 is unlikely, but would target $1400. Dollar Index The Dollar Index is headed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7498\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}