{"id":7452,"date":"2013-04-10T23:36:32","date_gmt":"2013-04-11T03:36:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=7452"},"modified":"2013-04-10T23:36:32","modified_gmt":"2013-04-11T03:36:32","slug":"time-to-short-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/10\/time-to-short-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Time to short Gold?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Quartz<\/a> reports that Goldman Sachs recommend investors sell gold short:<\/p>\n

Now Goldman Sachs commodities analysts suggest the selloff in the yellow metal could be about to gain momentum. In a research note Wednesday they write not even the stress over Cyprus could generate much of a rally in gold prices. And they come to the conclusion that \u201clong\u201d enthusiasm over gold prices is ebbing fast……..<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

A short trade with a stop at $1600 and target of $1450 (according to GS), for a breakout below $1550, seems a reasonable risk-reward ratio. But what is the probability of a downward breakout and should long-term investors consider selling?<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Gold had several consolidations or corrections<\/em> over the last decade, but each resolved in a continuation of the primary up-trend, with quantitative easing fueling the rise. Latest FOMC minutes<\/a> indicate that bond purchases are likely to be scaled back in the second half of the year. Does this mean the end of QE and gold’s bull run?<\/p>\n

Hussman Funds’ latest market comment<\/a> includes a chart<\/a> that shows the economy rallies whenever the Fed introduces QE, but falls when QE ends. The US economy may come off life support<\/em> but is still going to need a lengthy convalescence<\/em>. And possibly further episodes of QE to prevent a relapse.<\/p>\n

Declining purchasing power of the dollar is also unlikely to reverse. The Dollar Index ($DXY) is in an up-trend, but we need to remember that it reflects values relative to major trading partners, with the Euro accounting for 57.6% of the total weighting, the Yen second highest at 13.6%, and Pound Sterling third at 11.9%. This is a race to the bottom. All four central banks are debasing their currencies. The Dollar only looks strong because it is sinking slower than the others. Purchasing power of the dollar is definitely not rising in real terms.<\/p>\n

So my long-term view of gold remains bullish, but that does not rule out a 30% correction<\/em> like 2008 below. Retail investors are definitely sellers, with substantial outflows from gold ETFs, but central banks according to Agustino Fontevecchia at Forbes<\/a> are buying:<\/p>\n

As prices have dropped and investors lost faith, central banks have been on the opposite side of the trade, gobbling up bullion at a rate of 27-metric tons a month, according to UBS\u2019 gold expert Edel Tully. Russia and South Korea are among the biggest buyers….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This could still go either way. On the monthly chart we can see gold testing support at $1550. The third dip below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum gives strong warning of a down-trend. Breakout below $1500 would offer a target of $1200*, but respect of support — indicated by recovery above the February 26 high at $1620 — would signal a rally to $1800.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200<\/p>\n

Dollar Index<\/h3>\n

The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 84.00. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 89.00\/90.00. Rising momentum supports this view.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/h3>\n

The ascending triangle and rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum both signal a primary advance for Nymex Crude, supported by an improving economic outlook. Brent Crude breaking support at $106\/barrel, reflects the opposite view in Europe and we could see the crude prices in North America and Europe converge — if not cross — for the first time in more than two years.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/h3>\n

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index continues in a primary down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"Commodities\"<\/p>\n

China — the major driver of global commodity prices — is significantly lagging the recovery in the US.<\/p>\n

\"Commodities\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Quartz reports that Goldman Sachs recommend investors sell gold short: Now Goldman Sachs commodities analysts suggest the selloff in the yellow metal could be about to gain momentum. In a research note Wednesday they write not even the stress over Cyprus could generate much of a rally in gold prices. And they come to the … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Time to short Gold?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,35],"tags":[810,1073,1127,1779,2529,3204],"class_list":["post-7452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gold-commodities","category-us-dollar-index","tag-continuous-commodity-index","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-ubs-commodity-index","tag-ice-brent-crude","tag-nymex-wti-light-crude","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"\nTime to short Gold? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Time to short Gold? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Quartz reports that Goldman Sachs recommend investors sell gold short: Now Goldman Sachs commodities analysts suggest the selloff in the yellow metal could be about to gain momentum. 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Penetration of the descending trendline indicates that a bottom is forming. Reversal below $1300 would suggest another test of primary support at $1200, but breakout above $1350 is as likely and would target $1400. A rally to $1400 would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6386,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/06\/goldman-predicts-falling-commodity-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":7452,"position":1},"title":"Goldman predicts falling commodity prices","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Matthew Boesler writes that Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodity Research, in his investment outlook for 2013, says commodity prices may be done going up, but that doesn't mean investors can't still make money. Currie's explanation is this: sustained high prices over the past decade have caused producers to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7946,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/27\/gold-and-commodities-fall-as-the-dollar-rises\/","url_meta":{"origin":7452,"position":2},"title":"Gold and commodities fall as the dollar rises","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 27, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is falling fast, but should find short\/medium-term support at $1200\/ounce*. Breach of that level would offer a target of $1000.* Target calculations: 1350 - ( 1500 - 1350 ) = 1200;\u00a0 1500 - ( 1800 - 1500 ) = 1200Silver similarly offers a target of $16\/ounce*. * Target calculation:\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7402,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/03\/gold-tests-key-support-level\/","url_meta":{"origin":7452,"position":3},"title":"Gold tests key support level","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 3, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot gold is testing primary support at $1500 to $1550. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary trend reversal. Failure of support at $1500 would confirm. The daily chart shows penetration of support at $1550. Recovery above the support level would warn of a bear trap --\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6961,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/14\/gold-finds-support-while-the-dollar-rises\/","url_meta":{"origin":7452,"position":4},"title":"Gold finds support while the Dollar rises","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 14, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot gold is testing primary support at $1500 to $1550. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of a reversal and failure of support at $1500 would confirm. A Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the signal. On the weekly chart we can see respect of support at $1550 is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7498,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/18\/gold-will-it-bounce\/","url_meta":{"origin":7452,"position":5},"title":"Gold: Will it bounce?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 18, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"\"Never try to catch a falling safe\" warn the pundits .... \"Wait for it to bounce.\" So far we have not seen much bounce. After finding short-term support at $1320 on the 2-hourly chart, gold rallied to $1400 before retreating to test $1360. The long tail at $1360 indicates buying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7452"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7452\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}