{"id":7335,"date":"2013-03-27T21:08:27","date_gmt":"2013-03-28T01:08:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=7335"},"modified":"2013-03-27T21:08:27","modified_gmt":"2013-03-28T01:08:27","slug":"gold-bugs-warn-of-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/27\/gold-bugs-warn-of-weakness\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Bugs warn of weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) representing un-hedged gold stocks has under-performed spot gold since the GFC in 2008, with a safe-haven premium priced into the metal. But $HUI diverged strongly in mid-2012, commencing a strong primary down-trend while spot gold continues to range above support (at $1500\/ounce).
\n\"Spot<\/p>\n

On the weekly chart spot gold continues to test resistance at 1620 — and the upper trend channel. Failure to break out would threaten primary support at $1500 to $1550. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend and failure of support at $1500 would confirm; a TMO peak below zero would strengthen the signal.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Conclusion:<\/p>\n

I am not yet convinced that gold is headed for a primary down-trend, but substantial outflows from gold\u00a0 ETFs in recent months highlight investors returning to the stock market. Inflation is muted, with central bank expansionary policies merely counteracting deflationary pressures from credit contraction. Opportunities for another bull run on gold appear distant — unless a major catastrophe sparks more QE — but respect of primary support would signal further ranging between $1500 and $1800.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Dollar Index<\/h3>\n

A stronger dollar contributes to weaker gold prices. Breakout of the Dollar Index above 84.00 would signal an advance to 89.00\/90.00. Rising momentum suggests continuation of the up-trend.
\n\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/h3>\n

Brent Crude is falling in response to the contraction in Europe, while Nymex Crude breakout above $98\/barrel would signal a primary up-trend in response to a reviving US economy. Reversal of\u00a0 Brent Crude below $106\/barrel would signal a primary down-trend, narrowing the price gap between the two continents.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/h3>\n

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index is in a primary down-trend, headed for another test of the 2012 low at 126. Divergence between the index and S&P 500 suggests that the rise in equities does not reflect a recovery in the US manufacturing base — and may be prone to failure if manufacturing does not respond.
\n\"Commodities\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) representing un-hedged gold stocks has under-performed spot gold since the GFC in 2008, with a safe-haven premium priced into the metal. But $HUI diverged strongly in mid-2012, commencing a strong primary down-trend while spot gold continues to range above support (at $1500\/ounce). On the weekly chart spot gold continues to … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Gold Bugs warn of weakness”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,35],"tags":[810,1073,1127,1779,2529,3204],"class_list":["post-7335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gold-commodities","category-us-dollar-index","tag-continuous-commodity-index","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-ubs-commodity-index","tag-ice-brent-crude","tag-nymex-wti-light-crude","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"\nGold Bugs warn of weakness - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold Bugs warn of weakness - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) representing un-hedged gold stocks has under-performed spot gold since the GFC in 2008, with a safe-haven premium priced into the metal. 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Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary trend reversal. Failure of support at $1500 would confirm. The daily chart shows penetration of support at $1550. Recovery above the support level would warn of a bear trap --\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1419,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/19\/gold-heads-for-1600\/","url_meta":{"origin":7335,"position":1},"title":"Gold heads for $1600","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 19, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot gold is headed for a test of support at $1600\/ounce; failure would offer a target of $1500*. In the long term, the primary trend remains up and breakout above $1700 would signal an advance to $1900. * Target calculation: 1700 - ( 1900 - 1700 ) = 1500 Amex\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5527,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/19\/dollar-down-gold-up-but-crude-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":7335,"position":2},"title":"Dollar down, gold up but crude falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 19, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar Index is in a primary down-trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero. Expect a test of support at 78.00. An ensuing rally that respects resistance at 81.00\/81.50 would reinforce the primary down-trend. * Target calculation: 81 - ( 84 - 81 ) = 78 Spot Gold\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4106,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/18\/which-way-gold-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":7335,"position":3},"title":"Gold, Silver and the Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 18, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar Index met strong resistance at 80.00 and is likely to re-test support at 78.00. Upward breakout would signal continuation of the primary up-trend, while failure of support would warn of reversal to a down-trend. In the longer term, breakout above 82.00 would offer a target of 86.00*. Respect\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6961,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/14\/gold-finds-support-while-the-dollar-rises\/","url_meta":{"origin":7335,"position":4},"title":"Gold finds support while the Dollar rises","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 14, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot gold is testing primary support at $1500 to $1550. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of a reversal and failure of support at $1500 would confirm. A Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the signal. On the weekly chart we can see respect of support at $1550 is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8421,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/09\/12\/gold-tests-key-support-at-1350ounce\/","url_meta":{"origin":7335,"position":5},"title":"Gold tests key support at $1350\/ounce","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot gold is testing its rising trendline and support at $1350. Breach of support would warn that another test of primary support at $1200 is likely. Respect of the trendline, however, remains as likely and would offer a target of $1500*. Breakout above the standard deviation trend channel suggests that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7335\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}