{"id":6977,"date":"2013-03-15T22:56:08","date_gmt":"2013-03-16T02:56:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6977"},"modified":"2013-03-15T22:56:08","modified_gmt":"2013-03-16T02:56:08","slug":"dousing-the-flames-with-gasoline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/15\/dousing-the-flames-with-gasoline\/","title":{"rendered":"Dousing the flames with gasoline"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We are in the fifth year of recovery from the worst collapse of global financial markets in more than 50 years fueled by massive debt expansion, with non-financial debt rising as a percentage of GDP from 50% in the 1980s to almost 100% in 2008.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Household Credit Market Debt as % of GDP\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Household debt subsequently fell to 80% of GDP during the GFC as households diverted income away from consumption to reduce debt. But now we are starting to see worrying signs: consumer debt is again rising as a percentage of disposable income.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Consumer Debt % of Disposable Income\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Corporate bond yields have fallen to lows last seen in the 1960s.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Yields on Baa Corporate Bonds\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Interest margins for large banks are falling<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Large Bank Interest Margins\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/t.co\/WNyV93QS3E\" title=\"Yahoo: Steve Keen Interview\" target=\"_blank\"><br \/>\n<img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/stevekeen-margindebt.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Yahoo: Steve Keen Interview\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n(Click on the image to open the Yahoo: Steve Keen interview in<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We are in the fifth year of recovery from the worst collapse of global financial markets in more than 50 years fueled by massive debt expansion, with non-financial debt rising as a percentage of GDP from 50% in the 1980s to almost 100% in 2008. Household debt subsequently fell to 80% of GDP during the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/15\/dousing-the-flames-with-gasoline\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Dousing the flames with gasoline&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dousing the flames with gasoline - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dousing the flames with gasoline - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We are in the fifth year of recovery from the worst collapse of global financial markets in more than 50 years fueled by massive debt expansion, with non-financial debt rising as a percentage of GDP from 50% in the 1980s to almost 100% in 2008. 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Contraction since the GFC has brought US household debt back to 80% of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":41226,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/14\/volatility-how-does-australia-compare\/","url_meta":{"origin":6977,"position":1},"title":"Volatility: How Does Australia Compare?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 14, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week we covered suppression of volatility in complex systems and showed how Fed suppression of interest rate has destroyed productivity, causing debt to grow at a faster rate than GDP. Quick Recap The ratio of federal government debt increased to a precarious 121% of GDP at the end of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Federal Government Debt & Non-Financial Private Debt\/GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-07-debt-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-07-debt-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-03-07-debt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13396,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/25\/stock-buybacks-short-term-gain-long-term-pain\/","url_meta":{"origin":6977,"position":2},"title":"Stock buybacks: Short-term gain, long-term pain","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Companies are maintaining stock buybacks and dividends payouts despite falling earnings. Combined buybacks and dividend payouts for S&P 500 corporations exceeded earnings by an estimated $572 billion for 2015. The chart below illustrates how stock buybacks, for S&P 500 stocks, have grown to exceed dividend payouts. The combined figure now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Stock Buybacks and Dividends compared to Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38974,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/22\/australias-debt-end-game\/","url_meta":{"origin":6977,"position":3},"title":"Australia&#8217;s debt end game","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 22, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"We are nearing the end of a thirty year bull market in credit, during which time the overnight cash rate in Australia fell from 18% in 1989 to 0.03% in 2021. Low interest rates enabled households to borrow more relative to their income, with housing debt expanding 4.5 times, over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3188,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/20\/the-path-to-recovery-how-to-bring-the-debt-binge-under-control\/","url_meta":{"origin":6977,"position":4},"title":"The path to recovery: how to bring the debt binge under control","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The debt binge since 1975, fueled by an easy-money policy from the Fed, has landed the US economy in serious difficulties. Wall Street no doubt lobbied hard for debt expansion, because of the boost to interest margins, with little thought as to their own vulnerability. There can be no justification\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":42375,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/02\/senate-approves-debt-ceiling-increase\/","url_meta":{"origin":6977,"position":5},"title":"Senate approves debt ceiling increase","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 2, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Senate passed the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling compromise bill which will now go to the President for signature. It's ironic to see grandstanding by members of the House who would not support McCarty's efforts to find a bipartisan solution to the debt-ceiling impasse. They need to be reminded that Congress\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Senate Passes Debt Ceiling","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-01-debtceiling.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-01-debtceiling.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-01-debtceiling.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6977\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}