{"id":6716,"date":"2013-02-14T00:38:58","date_gmt":"2013-02-14T05:38:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6716"},"modified":"2013-02-14T00:38:58","modified_gmt":"2013-02-14T05:38:58","slug":"cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/","title":{"rendered":"Cause of the 2007\/8 crash and threatened double-dip in 2010"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here is the smoking gun. Note the sharp contraction in the US monetary base before the last two recessions and again in 2010. Monetary base (M0) is plotted net of excess bank reserves on deposit with the Fed, which are not in circulation. The Fed responded after the contraction had taken place, instead of anticipating it.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Monetary Base minus Excess Reserves\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The long-term problem is that the monetary base should not be expanding at 10 percent a year. More like 3% to 5% &#8212; in line with real GDP growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here is the smoking gun. Note the sharp contraction in the US monetary base before the last two recessions and again in 2010. Monetary base (M0) is plotted net of excess bank reserves on deposit with the Fed, which are not in circulation. The Fed responded after the contraction had taken place, instead of anticipating &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Cause of the 2007\/8 crash and threatened double-dip in 2010&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[1313,1352,2340],"class_list":["post-6716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-excess-reserves","tag-fed","tag-monetary-base"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cause of the 2007\/8 crash and threatened double-dip in 2010 - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cause of the 2007\/8 crash and threatened double-dip in 2010 - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Here is the smoking gun. Note the sharp contraction in the US monetary base before the last two recessions and again in 2010. Monetary base (M0) is plotted net of excess bank reserves on deposit with the Fed, which are not in circulation. The Fed responded after the contraction had taken place, instead of anticipating &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Cause of the 2007\/8 crash and threatened double-dip in 2010&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-02-14T05:38:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?graph_id=116161\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Cause of the 2007\/8 crash and threatened double-dip in 2010\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-02-14T05:38:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/\"},\"wordCount\":89,\"commentCount\":2,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?graph_id=116161\",\"keywords\":[\"excess reserves\",\"Fed\",\"Monetary Base\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/\",\"name\":\"Cause of the 2007\/8 crash and threatened double-dip in 2010 - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?graph_id=116161\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-02-14T05:38:58+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?graph_id=116161\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/fredgraph.png?graph_id=116161\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/14\/cause-of-the-20078-crash-and-threatened-double-dip-in-2010\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Cause of the 2007\/8 crash and threatened double-dip in 2010\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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The curve shows an almost perfect fit. There are just two things wrong with it. First, the scales on the left and right sides of the chart are not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Securities Held Outright v. 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Commodity prices may fall when there is an excess of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-02-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-02-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-02-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11338,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/11\/16\/monetary-base-and-deflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":6716,"position":2},"title":"Monetary Base and deflation","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 16, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"The Monetary Base consists of currency in circulation and commercial bank deposits at the Federal Reserve. Currency in circulation includes notes and coins both in circulation and held in the vaults of commercial banks. Commercial bank deposits at the Fed can be further broken down into required reserves and excess\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Monetary Base minus Excess Reserves and Currency in Circulation ROC","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-16-mbase.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-16-mbase.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-16-mbase.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10295,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/14\/fed-excess-reserves-shrinking\/","url_meta":{"origin":6716,"position":3},"title":"Fed excess reserves shrinking","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 14, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Commentators have highlighted the fact that bank excess reserves held on deposit at the Fed \u2014 and on which banks are paid interest at 0.25% p.a. \u2014 are declining. This would suggest that bank lending is rising, increasing inflationary pressure. The Fed is well aware of the situation ...and has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Excess Reserves- Weekly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-14-fed-excessreserves-wk.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-14-fed-excessreserves-wk.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-14-fed-excessreserves-wk.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8467,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/09\/23\/interest-on-reserves-settlement-and-the-effectiveness-of-monetary-policy\/","url_meta":{"origin":6716,"position":4},"title":"Interest on Reserves, Settlement, and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 23, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Joshua R. Hendrickson suggests that paying interest on excess reserves at the Fed reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. Money paid to purchase Treasuries finds its way back to the Fed in the form of excess reserves. Here is the abstract from his paper: Over the last several years, the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16023,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/10\/23\/fed-flunks-econ-101\/","url_meta":{"origin":6716,"position":5},"title":"Fed flunks econ 101?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 23, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Caroline Baum's opinion on the Fed's approach to inflation: For all the sturm und drang about the Fed debasing the dollar and sowing the seeds of the next great inflation, the public\u2019s demand for money has increased. The increased desire to hold cash and checkable deposits has risen to meet\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6716","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6716"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6716\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6716"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6716"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6716"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}