{"id":6691,"date":"2013-02-12T00:22:50","date_gmt":"2013-02-12T05:22:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6691"},"modified":"2013-02-12T00:22:50","modified_gmt":"2013-02-12T05:22:50","slug":"a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/12\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\/","title":{"rendered":"A credit vigilante arrives at the Fed &#124; Gavyn Davies"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Gavyn Davies at FT writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"background-color:#ddddff;\"><p>[Fed Governor, Professor Jeremy Stein] argues that the credit markets have recently been \u201creaching for yield\u201d, much as they did prior to the financial crash. Although not yet as dangerous as in the period from 2004-2007, this behaviour is shown by the rapid expansion of the junk bond market, flows into high-yield mutual funds and real estate investment trusts and the duration of bond portfolios held by banks&#8230;&#8230;. he indicates that the right weapon to deal with this might well be to raise interest rates, rather than relying solely on regulatory and other prudential policy to control the process. This would obviously come as a big surprise to the markets, which have tended to view the Fed\u2019s stated concerns about the \u201ccosts of QE\u201d as so much hot air&#8230;&#8230;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/blogs.ft.com\/gavyndavies\/2013\/02\/10\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed\/'>A credit vigilante arrives at the Fed | Gavyn Davies<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gavyn Davies at FT writes: [Fed Governor, Professor Jeremy Stein] argues that the credit markets have recently been \u201creaching for yield\u201d, much as they did prior to the financial crash. Although not yet as dangerous as in the period from 2004-2007, this behaviour is shown by the rapid expansion of the junk bond market, flows &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/12\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;A credit vigilante arrives at the Fed &#124; Gavyn Davies&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[883,1858,2009],"class_list":["post-6691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-credit-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-junk-bonds"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A credit vigilante arrives at the Fed &#124; Gavyn Davies - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A credit vigilante arrives at the Fed &#124; Gavyn Davies - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gavyn Davies at FT writes: [Fed Governor, Professor Jeremy Stein] argues that the credit markets have recently been \u201creaching for yield\u201d, much as they did prior to the financial crash. Although not yet as dangerous as in the period from 2004-2007, this behaviour is shown by the rapid expansion of the junk bond market, flows &hellip; Continue reading &quot;A credit vigilante arrives at the Fed &#124; Gavyn Davies&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/12\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-02-12T05:22:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/02\\\/12\\\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/02\\\/12\\\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"A credit vigilante arrives at the Fed &#124; Gavyn Davies\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-02-12T05:22:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/02\\\/12\\\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":156,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"credit markets\",\"interest rates\",\"junk bonds\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/02\\\/12\\\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/02\\\/12\\\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/02\\\/12\\\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\\\/\",\"name\":\"A credit vigilante arrives at the Fed &#124; Gavyn Davies - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2013-02-12T05:22:50+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/02\\\/12\\\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/02\\\/12\\\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2013\\\/02\\\/12\\\/a-credit-vigilante-arrives-at-the-fed-gavyn-davies\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"A credit vigilante arrives at the Fed &#124; Gavyn Davies\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Some investors are even betting on no landing at all. While outcomes may be uncertain, there are two things we can count on. First, is that the Fed will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-25-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-25-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-25-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19944,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/11\/one-bad-day-away-from-turmoil\/","url_meta":{"origin":6691,"position":1},"title":"&#8220;One bad day away from turmoil&#8221;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Jeff Gundlach, CEO and founder of DoubleLine Capital LP, discusses financial markets with Danielle De Martino Booth, formerly at the Dallas Fed, now CEO of Quill Intelligence: https:\/\/youtu.be\/UPnTJz7H68w It's 32 minutes long but worth listening. Here are my notes: J: The corporate bond market is on the edge of a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/UPnTJz7H68w\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":50400,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/25\/junk-bonds-bitcoin-a-heady-mix\/","url_meta":{"origin":6691,"position":2},"title":"Bitcoin &#038; junk bonds &#8211; a heady mix","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 25, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin broke resistance at $68K to signal another test of $72K. Breakout above $72K would offer a target of $82K. Junk bond spreads (relative to 10-year Treasury yields) have declined to 8.54%, indicating readily available credit in financial markets. A decline to lows around 5.0%, however, would be an early\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-26-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-26-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-26-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19948,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/11\/coronavirus-market-selloff-a-gross-overreaction\/","url_meta":{"origin":6691,"position":3},"title":"Coronavirus market selloff &#8216;a gross overreaction&#8217;","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"I don't agree with this conclusion from Karen Andersen at Morningstar on the impact that COVID-19 will have on the global economy: \"Although we project a grim set of scenarios in terms of fatalities in our analysis, our view on the economic impact is much more sanguine.... To be sure,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":45774,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/29\/fed-stealth-liquidity-may-presage-early-rate-cuts\/","url_meta":{"origin":6691,"position":4},"title":"Fed stealth liquidity may presage early rate cuts","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 29, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Commercial bank cash assets, representing reserves held at the Fed, reversed its down-trend after September 2022 -- when the UK gilt crisis occurred -- and is now edging higher, reflecting stealth liquidity support from the Fed and Treasury. Fed QT is reducing liquidity at the rate of $95 billion per\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Commercial Bank Reserves","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-28-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-28-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-28-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26515,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/06\/25\/bond-market-calls-bs-on-feds-hawkish-stance\/","url_meta":{"origin":6691,"position":5},"title":"Bond market calls BS on Fed&#8217;s &#8220;hawkish&#8221; stance","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 25, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"10-Year Treasury yields rallied for several hours after the Fed's FOMC press statement but soon resumed testing the lower boarder of its trend channel. The bond market is not convinced by Fed hints at tapering\/raising interest rates. For good reason. Massive stimulus over the past 15 months has driven interest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6691"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6691\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}