{"id":66650,"date":"2026-10-23T09:00:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T09:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650"},"modified":"2026-10-23T09:00:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T09:00:25","slug":"when-falling-yields-arent-a-bull-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/23\/when-falling-yields-arent-a-bull-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"When Falling Yields Aren&#8217;t a Bull Signal"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Brent Crude futures climbed to $114.55 per barrel as conflict in the Persian Gulf intensifies.<\/li>\n<li>10-year Treasury yields fell sharply to below 5.0%.<\/li>\n<li>Mega-cap stocks were sold, but the broad-based S&amp;P 500 equal-weighted index rallied on the prospect of lower funding costs.<\/li>\n<li>Gold, copper and other energy metals are experiencing a broad sell-off despite falling long-term rates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Brent Crude futures (Dec &#8217;26) have climbed to $114.55\/barrel, headed for another test of resistance from the March and April highs at $118\/barrel.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-brent.png?resize=525%2C332&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude Futures (ICE December'26)\" width=\"525\" height=\"332\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Average US diesel prices are above $6.00 per gallon.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-diesel.png?resize=525%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"EIA US Diesel Prices\" width=\"525\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/8JpVrAsdUqc?si=mhCYtpbh0tQLwS7C\">Jim Bianco<\/a> argues that we are already at the equivalent of $200\/barrel crude. Diesel crack spreads are as high as $86.90 per barrel, up from $33\/barrel in February, but refiners must cover shipping costs of $35 to $38\/barrel versus $1 to $ 2 per barrel\u00a0before the war.<\/p>\n<p>He says that consumers currently &#8220;bitch and moan&#8221; when they fill up the truck, but they still drive. Demand destruction is when they park the truck and walk.<\/p>\n<h2>Bond Market<\/h2>\n<p>10-Year Treasury yields fell below 5.0%, finding short-term support at 4.95%. The sharp fall signals increased investor demand for bonds\u2014a bearish sign for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Yields on investment-grade and high-yield bonds are rapidly diverging.<\/p>\n<p>The spread between the lowest investment-grade (Baa) and 10-year Treasuries has narrowed to 1.44%, near the 30-year low of 1.38% in November 2024. By contrast, the spread between high-yield bonds (CCC and lower) and 10-year Treasuries has widened to 12.57% from 9.89% at the end of August.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-ccc-baa.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"High-yield (CCC and below) &amp; Baa Spreads\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.grantspub.com\/almostDailyHTML.cfm?dcid=2002&amp;article=2\">Grant&#8217;s Daily<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe U.S. leveraged finance market is showing classic late-cycle characteristics,\u201d analysts at Moody\u2019s warned late last month. \u201cAs financing conditions have grown more selective, the gap between stronger and weaker borrowers has widened.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A lasting downshift in market sentiment could prove costly to firms sitting on the lower rungs of the speculative-grade ladder. Firms rated Caa and below face $27 billion in debt maturities over the next year and $91 billion by fall 2028, the rating agency warned Tuesday.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) broke support at 11,000. Another bearish sign for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-sox.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is testing support at 7600. A lower Trend Index peak warns of secondary selling pressure. A breach of 7500 would warn of a correction to test 7000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Mega-cap technology stocks are under selling pressure, with the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF<sup>1<\/sup> (MAGS) testing support at 70.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-mags.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, the broader-based S&amp;P 500 equal-weighted index ($IQX) rallied on the prospect of lower interest rates.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-iqx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Equal-Weighted Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/take-five\/global-markets-themes-graphic-2026-10-23\/\">Reuters<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>A big week for US corporate earnings will be headlined by \u200breports from three of the largest companies at the heart of the huge AI capital investment theme that has driven up equities.<\/p>\n<p>Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) \u2014 three of the so-called \u200bhyperscalers \u2014 will post results at a time investors are becoming wary of the risks of the spending on data centers.<\/p>\n<p>The week will be critical in determining whether third-quarter results lived up to high expectations for US profit growth, with about one-third of S&amp;P 500 companies reporting.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The Dollar weakened as expectations of interest rate rises softened.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce, driven by rising oil prices ahead of falling long-term rates.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Energy Metals<\/h2>\n<p>Mining stocks for energy-related metals are under selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Sprott Copper Miners ETF<sup>1<\/sup> (COPP) is headed for a test of primary support between 35 and 32. Declining Trend Index peaks confirm selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-copp.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Sprott Lithium Miners ETF<sup>1<\/sup> (LITP) is in a steep downtrend. Declining Trend Index peaks, below zero, signal strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-litp.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Sprott Critical Materials ETF<sup>1<\/sup> (SETM) has broken primary support at 30, with declining Trend Index peaks signaling strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-setm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Sprott Uranium Miners ETF<sup>1<\/sup> (URNM) is also in a steep downtrend, with Trend Index peaks below zero indicating strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-urnm.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The outlook for stocks is bearish. Falling 10-year Treasury yields are a bear signal.<\/p>\n<p>Oil prices are rising, and stocks are falling as investors shift towards the security of bonds. Widening spreads for high-yield bonds warn of growing stress among low-grade corporate borrowers. Falling commodity prices warn that manufacturing demand will likely slow as a result of high energy prices.<\/p>\n<p>Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce, pressured by rising oil prices and the conflict in the Persian Gulf. However, we remain long-term gold bulls and view the current weakness as an opportunity to accumulate.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St. Louis: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/@LCO.1\">Brent Crude ICE Dec&#8217;26 Futures<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Jim Bianco: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8JpVrAsdUqc\">Expect Huge Moves In INTEREST RATES&#8230;Here&#8217;s Why<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/take-five\/global-markets-themes-graphic-2026-10-23\/\">AI trade meets the Fed<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Notes<\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li>We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points Brent Crude futures climbed to $114.55 per barrel as conflict in the Persian Gulf intensifies. 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply to below 5.0%. Mega-cap stocks were sold, but the broad-based S&amp;P 500 equal-weighted index rallied on the prospect of lower funding costs. Gold, copper and other energy metals are experiencing a broad sell-off &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/23\/when-falling-yields-arent-a-bull-signal\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;When Falling Yields Aren&#8217;t a Bull Signal&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,4738,5282,44,9,4547,6106,34],"tags":[69,7507,495,815,4514,4304,1073,7506,4485,7508,7129,3010,3013,3204,7005,5228,6386],"class_list":["post-66650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","category-copper","category-critical-materials","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gold-precious-metals","category-lithium","category-uranium","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-baa-spreads","tag-brent-crude","tag-copper","tag-critical-materials","tag-demand-destruction","tag-dollar-index","tag-high-yield-ccc-and-below-spreads","tag-lithium","tag-philadelphia-semiconductor-index-sox","tag-roundhill-magnificent-7-etf-mags","tag-sp-500","tag-sp-500-equal-weighted-index","tag-spot-gold","tag-sprott-copper-miners-etf-copp","tag-uranium","tag-us-diesel-prices"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>When Falling Yields Aren&#039;t a Bull Signal - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When Falling Yields Aren&#039;t a Bull Signal - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points Brent Crude futures climbed to $114.55 per barrel as conflict in the Persian Gulf intensifies. 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply to below 5.0%. Mega-cap stocks were sold, but the broad-based S&amp;P 500 equal-weighted index rallied on the prospect of lower funding costs. Gold, copper and other energy metals are experiencing a broad sell-off &hellip; Continue reading &quot;When Falling Yields Aren&#8217;t a Bull Signal&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-23T09:00:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-brent.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"When Falling Yields Aren&#8217;t a Bull Signal\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-23T09:00:25+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650\"},\"wordCount\":784,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2026\\\/2026-10-22-brent.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yield\",\"Baa Spreads\",\"Brent crude\",\"Copper\",\"Critical Materials\",\"Demand Destruction\",\"Dollar Index\",\"High-yield (CCC and below) Spreads\",\"Lithium\",\"Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)\",\"Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"S&amp;P 500 Equal-Weighted Index\",\"Spot Gold\",\"Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)\",\"Uranium\",\"US Diesel Prices\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Bonds\",\"Copper\",\"Critical Materials\",\"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas\",\"Gold &amp; Precious Metals\",\"Lithium\",\"Nuclear Energy &amp; Uranium\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650\",\"name\":\"When Falling Yields Aren't a Bull Signal - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2026\\\/2026-10-22-brent.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-23T09:00:25+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2026\\\/2026-10-22-brent.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2026\\\/2026-10-22-brent.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?p=66650#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"When Falling Yields Aren&#8217;t a Bull Signal\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"When Falling Yields Aren't a Bull Signal - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"When Falling Yields Aren't a Bull Signal - the patient investor","og_description":"Key Points Brent Crude futures climbed to $114.55 per barrel as conflict in the Persian Gulf intensifies. 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply to below 5.0%. Mega-cap stocks were sold, but the broad-based S&amp;P 500 equal-weighted index rallied on the prospect of lower funding costs. Gold, copper and other energy metals are experiencing a broad sell-off &hellip; Continue reading \"When Falling Yields Aren&#8217;t a Bull Signal\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2026-10-23T09:00:25+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-brent.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"When Falling Yields Aren&#8217;t a Bull Signal","datePublished":"2026-10-23T09:00:25+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650"},"wordCount":784,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-brent.png","keywords":["10-Year Treasury Yield","Baa Spreads","Brent crude","Copper","Critical Materials","Demand Destruction","Dollar Index","High-yield (CCC and below) Spreads","Lithium","Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)","Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)","S&amp;P 500","S&amp;P 500 Equal-Weighted Index","Spot Gold","Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)","Uranium","US Diesel Prices"],"articleSection":["Bonds","Copper","Critical Materials","Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","Gold &amp; Precious Metals","Lithium","Nuclear Energy &amp; Uranium","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650","name":"When Falling Yields Aren't a Bull Signal - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-brent.png","datePublished":"2026-10-23T09:00:25+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-brent.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-22-brent.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66650#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"When Falling Yields Aren&#8217;t a Bull Signal"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-hl0","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":65201,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/08\/us-strikes-iran-10-year-yields-rise-and-gold-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":66650,"position":0},"title":"US Strikes Iran, 10-Year Yields Rise and Gold Weakens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points US Central Command announced the resumption of strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for IRGC attacks on shipping. The US Treasury also revoked a temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Brent Crude (Sep '26 futures) lifted to above $75 per barrel. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"US Centcom Announces Strikes on Iran","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-07-us-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-07-us-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-07-us-iran.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-07-us-iran.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63565,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/05\/bitcoin-plunge-signals-risk-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":66650,"position":1},"title":"Bitcoin Plunge Signals Risk-Off","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 5, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Bitcoin plunged to $71,200, warning that financial markets are becoming risk-averse. Brent crude surged to nearly $70 per barrel amid heightened US-Iran tensions. Volatility following the CME margin hike, effective Monday, triggered a broad selloff in precious metals and energy transition metals. Bitcoin2 (BTC) broke support at 85,000,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Cryptocurrency&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Cryptocurrency","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/cryptocurrency\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-04-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-04-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-04-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":66366,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/08\/brent-at-104-barrel-as-sp-500-heads-for-8000\/","url_meta":{"origin":66650,"position":2},"title":"Brent at $104\/barrel as S&#038;P 500 Heads for 8000","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Brent rallied to $104 per barrel after testing support at $100 for several days. The S&P 500 is at a new record high. The 10-year Treasury yield held firm at 5.28% after a solid auction. The Dollar Index signals a fresh rally after breaking resistance at 102. Gold\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Middle East&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Middle East","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/middle-east\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures (ICE December'26)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-07-brent-dec26.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-07-brent-dec26.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-07-brent-dec26.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":55659,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/16\/small-caps-signal-risk-on\/","url_meta":{"origin":66650,"position":3},"title":"Small caps signal Risk On","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 16, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Falling Treasury yields and a surge in liquidity in financial markets is bullish for stocks, bonds and precious metals. The rotation from growth to value has slowed, while increased interest in small caps signals risk on for stocks. Crude and base metals are weakening as demand from China slows. Uranium\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-15-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-15-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-15-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":57670,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/21\/gold-jumps-to-2622-while-sp-500-consolidates\/","url_meta":{"origin":66650,"position":4},"title":"Gold jumps to $2622 while S&#038;P 500 consolidates","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold jumped to a new high, while the S&P 500 retraced to test new support after its recent breakout. Crude remains in a bear market, while copper and uranium benefit from a surge in AI data center construction. Stocks The S&P 500 retraced to test its new support level at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":65012,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/23\/a-lull-in-hostilities\/","url_meta":{"origin":66650,"position":5},"title":"A Lull in Hostilities","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 23, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Hostilities in Lebanon faded. Tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased. Brent Crude futures fell to $77.64 per barrel. 2-year Treasury yields rose above 4.20% amid expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy. Brent Crude futures (Aug'26) fell to $77.64 per barrel on reports of a lull in hostilities\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Bonds&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Bonds","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/asset-classes\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures (ICE August'26)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-06-23-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66650"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66650\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}