{"id":66505,"date":"2026-10-14T11:17:53","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T11:17:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505"},"modified":"2026-10-14T11:17:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T11:17:53","slug":"whats-really-driving-treasury-yields","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/14\/whats-really-driving-treasury-yields\/","title":{"rendered":"What&#8217;s Really Driving Treasury Yields?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li>10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.3% in early October, up from below 4.0% in late February.<\/li>\n<li>Central banks are hiking rates and lifting the yield curve.<\/li>\n<li>QT by the ECB and Bank of Japan is increasing supply in bond markets.<\/li>\n<li>A debt maturity wall and capital expenditure on AI data centers are increasing private debt issuance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>We all know what triggered the initial surge in long-term Treasury yields. The 10-year was trading below 4.0% on February 27 but jumped sharply after the US and Israel bombed Iran that weekend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh&#8217;s keynote speech at Jackson Hole on August 28 added further impetus. Warsh&#8217;s hawkish tone, though short on specifics, led the bond market to conclude that rate hikes were coming, with the 2-year Treasury yield jumping by nearly 70 basis points in the next 4 weeks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-us2y.png?resize=525%2C332&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"2-Year Treasury Yield (CNBC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"332\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Persistent inflation has given central banks little choice. Many are hiking rates, including the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and even Australia&#8217;s RBA. One notable exception is the People&#8217;s Bank of China.<\/p>\n<p>Does this mean that rates will soften if oil prices fall? If the conflict in the Persian Gulf were settled and oil flows returned to normal, oil prices would likely settle after inventories are restored, but are unlikely to return to pre-war levels. However, we attach a higher probability to a protracted war that could drag on for years, with oil prices remaining elevated.<\/p>\n<p>In either case, we are unlikely to see another bout of QE, which drove the 10-year yield below 4.0% for more than a decade.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-10y-fedqe.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield &amp; Fed QE\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Central banks are still repairing their balance sheets (QT) after the last expansion, which will likely keep upward pressure on long-term yields for several years. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shed $3 trillion of securities since its pandemic peak, while the Fed shed $2.4 trillion under Jerome Powell before resuming purchases in December last year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-fed-boj-ecb-totalassets.png?resize=525%2C292&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Central Bank Total Assets\" width=\"525\" height=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has gone even further, shedding $4.3 trillion or 53% of its QE assets (blue line below) since mid-2022. The green total assets figure is distorted because the ECB revalues its Gold reserves to market prices at the end of each quarter.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-ecb-totalassets.png?resize=525%2C292&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ECB Total Assets\" width=\"525\" height=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Both the ECB and BOJ are steadily reducing the securities on their balance sheets, increasing supply in bond markets and adding upward pressure on yields. The Fed under Warsh will likely resume its gradual downward path.<\/p>\n<p>A notable exception is the PBOC, which has steadily expanded its balance sheet, adding close to $2 trillion since 2020. This highlights the extent of China&#8217;s economic problems. Despite a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion, the PBOC continues to debase the currency to soften the impact of the domestic contraction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-pboc-totalassets.png?resize=525%2C292&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"PBOC Total Assets\" width=\"525\" height=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Debt Maturity Wall<\/h2>\n<p>Adding fuel to the increased supply from central bank QT (apart from the PBOC) is the wall of private-sector bond maturities that will need to be rolled over in the next few years.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-debt-maturity-wall.png?resize=525%2C339&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Debt Maturity Wall\" width=\"525\" height=\"339\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Many corporations took advantage of record-low interest rates in the early 2020s to refinance at lower rates. That debt is now maturing and will need to be rolled over at much higher rates.<\/p>\n<h2>AI Financing<\/h2>\n<p>Hyperscalers need to spend $9.6 trillion between 2025 and 2032 to build 183 GW of data center capacity, according to estimates by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/4c_Van-Nieuwerburgh.pdf\">Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh<\/a>. Morgan Stanley estimates that more than half of the roughly $2.9 trillion required to meet hyperscalers&#8217; incremental compute needs over 2025\u20132028 will come from outside capital (Morgan Stanley Research, 2025).<\/p>\n<h2>Falling Private Demand<\/h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">&#8220;The cure for high prices is high prices.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The abuse of the large captive investment market for government bonds, suppressing yields to artificial lows through QE, has reduced demand for traditional insurance annuities and pensions. Insurers and pension funds have adapted by increasing exposure to private debt, infrastructure, and alternative investments while reducing allocations to government bonds.<\/p>\n<p>The chart below highlights the decline in France&#8217;s government bonds (OATS) held by domestic insurers and pension funds (green below), from about 25% in 2014 to less than 11%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-oats.png?resize=525%2C316&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"France: Government Debt Financing\" width=\"525\" height=\"316\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Central bank QE has reduced investment demand for government bonds from traditional investors, such as insurers and pension funds, due to artificially low yields. The US Treasury is increasingly reliant on hedge funds to fund new issuance through highly leveraged repo-market trades.<\/p>\n<p>A number of central banks are now shedding QE assets, increasing supply in bond markets. At the same time, many developed economies run large deficits, increasing government debt issuance. Capital expenditure on data centers and a large debt maturity wall have also increased private debt issuance.<\/p>\n<p>Many central banks are hiking interest rates to curb inflation. It is unclear how long the war in the Persian Gulf and related oil shortages will last, adding to inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<p>Rising bond yields increase the cost of servicing government debt and drive up deficits, pushing bond markets towards a crisis.<\/p>\n<p>The imbalance between debt supply and demand in bond markets is expected to maintain upward pressure on long-term yields. However, two factors could change this: a steep decline in government deficits, financed through spending cuts or tax hikes, or more central bank QE. Both seem unlikely, but desperate times may call for desperate measures.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St. Louis: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/US2Y\">2-Year Treasury Yield<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Hanno Lustig: <a href=\"https:\/\/thetwocents.substack.com\/p\/le-boomer-spread\">Le Boomer Spread<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Michael Howell, Cross Border Capital: <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Tzyifqs-Bg0?si=Pouckt7H3W0z0g3P\">Debt Maturity Wall<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Columbia Business School: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/4c_Van-Nieuwerburgh.pdf\">Financing the AI buildout<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Hanno Lustig: <a href=\"https:\/\/thetwocents.substack.com\/p\/nine-percent-of-gdp\">Nine Percent of GDP<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CBO: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/publication\/61882\">The Budget and Economic Outlook, 2026 to 2036<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Yardeni Research: <a href=\"https:\/\/yardeni.com\/charts\/global-economy\/global-central-banks\/balance-sheets-monthly\">Central Bank Charts<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Wolf Richter: <a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2026\/10\/08\/still-qt-plus-renewed-rate-hikes-at-the-ecb-despite-surging-bond-yields-in-the-euro-area\/\">Still QT plus Renewed Rate Hikes at the ECB despite Surging Bond Yields in the Euro Area<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Robin Brooks: <a href=\"https:\/\/robinjbrooks.substack.com\/p\/the-new-treasury-fed-accord-takes\">The New Treasury-Fed Accord Takes Shape<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.3% in early October, up from below 4.0% in late February. Central banks are hiking rates and lifting the yield curve. QT by the ECB and Bank of Japan is increasing supply in bond markets. A debt maturity wall and capital expenditure on AI data centers are increasing &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/14\/whats-really-driving-treasury-yields\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;What&#8217;s Really Driving Treasury Yields?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,41,17,33,34],"tags":[69,4808,460,7492,7493,7494,7495,2624,5423],"class_list":["post-66505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","category-china-hk","category-japan-korea","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-2-year-treasury-yield","tag-boj","tag-central-bank-qe","tag-debt-maturity-wall","tag-ecbb","tag-insurers-and-pension-funds","tag-pboc","tag-quantitative-tightening-qt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What&#039;s Really Driving Treasury Yields? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What&#039;s Really Driving Treasury Yields? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.3% in early October, up from below 4.0% in late February. Central banks are hiking rates and lifting the yield curve. QT by the ECB and Bank of Japan is increasing supply in bond markets. 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Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\",\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Colin Twiggs\"},\"description\":\"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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A debt maturity wall and capital expenditure on AI data centers are increasing &hellip; Continue reading \"What&#8217;s Really Driving Treasury Yields?\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2026-10-14T11:17:53+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-tnx.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"What&#8217;s Really Driving Treasury Yields?","datePublished":"2026-10-14T11:17:53+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505"},"wordCount":924,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-tnx.png","keywords":["10-Year Treasury Yield","2-Year Treasury Yield","BOJ","Central Bank QE","Debt Maturity Wall","ECBB","Insurers and Pension Funds","PBOC","Quantitative Tightening (QT)"],"articleSection":["Bonds","China &amp; HK","Japan &amp; Korea","UK &amp; Europe","US &amp; Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505","name":"What's Really Driving Treasury Yields? - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-tnx.png","datePublished":"2026-10-14T11:17:53+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-tnx.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-10-13-tnx.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66505#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"What&#8217;s Really Driving Treasury Yields?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-hiF","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62724,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/15\/qt-with-a-twist\/","url_meta":{"origin":66505,"position":0},"title":"QT with a Twist","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 15, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the Fed is near the end of QT. However, the Fed continues to intervene in the Treasury market, increasing its holdings of long-term bonds to suppress yields. Bonds remain in a secular bear market. Gold and silver will likely continue to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-14-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-14-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-14-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48040,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/07\/in-janet-we-trust\/","url_meta":{"origin":66505,"position":1},"title":"In Janet we Trust","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 7, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"We said yesterday that we expected the US Treasury and the Fed to push back against higher long-term UST yields and a strong Dollar. On Tuesday, the 10-year yield retreated from resistance at 4.20% after a sharp two-day rally. The Dollar Index retraced to test support at 104. Gold steadied\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-07-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-07-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-07-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62451,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/17\/beware-of-a-massive-devaluation\/","url_meta":{"origin":66505,"position":2},"title":"Beware of a Massive Devaluation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 17, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points We expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell to announce a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target rate. The long end of the Treasury yield curve is steepening even as the short end declines. Fiscal debt in most developed countries is too high and cannot be repaid\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":65530,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/02\/4-key-takeaways-from-the-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":66505,"position":3},"title":"4 Key Takeaways for the Week","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Long-term Treasury yields climbed after the Fed kept rates unchanged. The Japanese Yen is weakening as the Bank of Japan slow walks rate hikes. Gold absorbs selling pressure as long-term rates rise. China's economy is slowing. Treasury Market The bond market has been anticipating a rate hike. This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"2-Year Treasury Yield & Fed Funds Target (Upper Limit)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-01-2y-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-01-2y-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-01-2y-ffr.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61861,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/29\/a-tidal-change-and-key-market-levels\/","url_meta":{"origin":66505,"position":4},"title":"A tidal change and key market levels","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 29, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Rising yields in key global markets reveal an increased aversion to long-term government bonds. Japan is at the forefront, with Japan's Ministry of Finance indicating that it will reduce issuance of super-long tenor debt. The move eased concerns in international bond markets, with yields softening in Japan, South Korea, Britain,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Japan &amp; Korea&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Japan &amp; Korea","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/japan-korea\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-28-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43574,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/21\/why-are-us-treasury-flooding-the-market-with-t-bills\/","url_meta":{"origin":66505,"position":5},"title":"Why are US Treasury flooding the market with T-bills?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 21, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"US Treasury indicated that a larger than normal percentage of the $1.85 trillion issuance in the next two quarters -- $1.007 trillion in Q4 and $852 billion in Q1 of 2024 -- will be in T-bills and short-term notes. Even amid modest coupon increases, the T-bill share of outstanding debt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Treasury Yields: 10-Year, 1-Year & 3-Month","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-21-yieldcurve.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-21-yieldcurve.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-21-yieldcurve.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66505"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66505\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}