{"id":66257,"date":"2026-09-30T23:54:28","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T23:54:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66257"},"modified":"2026-09-30T23:54:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T23:54:28","slug":"australias-biggest-recession-risk-isnt-interest-rates-macrobusiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/30\/australias-biggest-recession-risk-isnt-interest-rates-macrobusiness\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia’s biggest recession risk isn’t interest rates | Macrobusiness"},"content":{"rendered":"

By: Leith van Onselen | MacroBusiness<\/a> | 28 September 2026
\nRe-published with permission.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

The interest rate futures market overwhelmingly expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lift the official cash rate by 0.25% on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

The futures market has also priced in a high probability of two further rate hikes over the next six months, which would take the cash rate to 5.10%.<\/p>\n

Given that mortgage payments are already taking a near-record share of household income, the prospect of two to three rate hikes has economists warning that the economy could be pushed into a technical recession next year.<\/p>\n

While the prospect of rate hikes is indeed worrying, it is not the greatest threat to the Australian economy: fuel shortages, particularly diesel, are.<\/p>\n

As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, Australia is easily the largest importer of diesel fuel in the world:<\/p>\n

\"Global<\/p>\n

“Australia is uniquely exposed to this diesel price shock given our reliance on imported product, which is by far the highest in the world, not as a % of GDP or per capita but outright”, Joiner wrote on X (Twitter)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

“This comes as other countries have scaled back imports and Australia’s have accelerated due in part to refinery closures”.<\/p>\n

To add further insult to injury, Sky UK posted the following chart showing that Australia has very low stocks of diesel in reserve:<\/p>\n

\"Diesel<\/p>\n


\n
\nSource: Sky UK<\/em>
\n<\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, with the two straits in the Middle East effectively shut and oil flows ceasing, Australia is the most exposed economy on earth to diesel shortages.<\/p>\n

The following chart from CBA shows what a 10% reduction in diesel supply would mean to key sectors of the Australian economy – namely mining, construction, transport, and agriculture:<\/p>\n

\"Diesel<\/p>\n

The economic impact would be enormous, effectively shutting down large swathes of the economy. Unemployment would also rise materially.<\/p>\n

Even if shortages are avoided, the economy faces severe energy cost inflation, resulting in significant cost-push inflation as firms pass on higher costs.<\/p>\n

\"Diesel<\/p>\n


\n
\nDiesel Price Forecasts (Source: Global Energy Flow<\/a>)<\/em>
\n<\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, overall CPI inflation would rise, increasing pressure on the RBA to hike further.<\/p>\n

Higher interest rates alongside rising unemployment would exacerbate the housing downturn, impacting consumption (via the wealth effect) and industries reliant on turnover (e.g., state budgets via stamp duty, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, banks, and retailers).<\/p>\n

Indeed, HSBC has forecast a 13% peak-to-trough decline in capital city home values, alongside a 1% reduction in GDP growth, due to slower consumer spending and reduced housing turnover.<\/p>\n

Thus, rising fuel prices and\/or shortages, higher interest rates, and an accelerating housing downturn have left Australia’s economy facing a technical recession in 2027, alongside a deep per capita recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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About the author<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Leith van Onselen<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By: Leith van Onselen | MacroBusiness | 28 September 2026 Re-published with permission. The interest rate futures market overwhelmingly expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lift the official cash rate by 0.25% on Tuesday. The futures market has also priced in a high probability of two further rate hikes over the next six … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Australia’s biggest recession risk isn’t interest rates | Macrobusiness”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,44,3761],"tags":[290,7482,2854,2860],"class_list":["post-66257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-gdp-and-activity","tag-australia","tag-diesel-shortage","tag-rate-hike","tag-rba"],"yoast_head":"\nAustralia's biggest recession risk isn't interest rates | Macrobusiness - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia's biggest recession risk isn't interest rates | Macrobusiness - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By: Leith van Onselen | MacroBusiness | 28 September 2026 Re-published with permission. The interest rate futures market overwhelmingly expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lift the official cash rate by 0.25% on Tuesday. 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Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-heF","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":39471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/10\/australia-hard-times\/","url_meta":{"origin":66257,"position":0},"title":"Australia: Hard times","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"You don't have to be an Einstein to figure out that 2023 is going to be a tough year. Australian consumers have already worked this out, with sentiment plunging to record lows. The bellwether of the Australian economy is housing. Prices are tumbling, with annual growth now close to zero.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-12-09-aus-sentiment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":41628,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/13\/australia-braces-for-impact\/","url_meta":{"origin":66257,"position":1},"title":"Australia braces for impact","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 13, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA paused rate hikes at a cash rate of 3.60% this month, with one further hike of 25 basis points expected at the next meeting on May 2nd, as the economy braces for impact from the mortgage cliff. Source: Macrobusiness\/ABA More than 600 thousand mortgages will switch from fixed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Mortgage Cliff","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-12-cliff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-12-cliff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-12-cliff.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42755,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/27\/australia-recession-risks\/","url_meta":{"origin":66257,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Recession Risks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent chart from Shane Oliver at AMP which illustrates the lag between interest rate rises and their impact on the economy: ....Despite the RBA progressively hiking rates to 18% over 1988 and 1989 the unemployment rate kept falling, prompting many to argue the economy was impervious. But then in late\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"RBA Cash Rate & Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-27-aus-rba-u3-lag.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-27-aus-rba-u3-lag.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-27-aus-rba-u3-lag.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-27-aus-rba-u3-lag.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-27-aus-rba-u3-lag.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-06-27-aus-rba-u3-lag.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":42351,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/31\/australias-nasty-inflation-surprise\/","url_meta":{"origin":66257,"position":3},"title":"Australia’s nasty inflation surprise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 31, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The possibility of more RBA rate hikes jumped as key monthly CPI measures ticked upwards. Trimmed mean inflation (dark blue below) -- the RBA's favorite measure -- increased to 6.7% for the 12 months to April, from 6.5% in March. Overall CPI (light blue) also increased: to 6.8% from 6.3%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Wage Inflation","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-31-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-31-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-31-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-05-31-aus-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35919,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/27\/australia-q2-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":66257,"position":4},"title":"Australia Q2 CPI and the cash rate","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The CPI gained 1.8% in the June quarter splitting the difference between the market median of 1.9% and Westpac\u2019s forecast of 1.7%. .....This increase was the second highest since the introduction of the GST and follows on from a 2.1% increase in the March quarter. The annual pace lifted from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI: Discretionary & Non-Discretionary","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48609,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/20\/will-the-rba-cut-first\/","url_meta":{"origin":66257,"position":5},"title":"Will the RBA cut first?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Recent articles in Macrobusiness and the ABC suggest that the RBA is likely to cut interest rates early, ahead of the Fed. Their conclusions are based on a February 16 research note by Gareth Aird at Commbank Divergence between the Australian and US consumer which provides some excellent charts: The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & RBA Cash Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66257"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66257\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66259,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66257\/revisions\/66259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}