{"id":66237,"date":"2026-09-30T11:11:26","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T11:11:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66237"},"modified":"2026-09-30T11:45:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T11:45:29","slug":"rba-hikes-asx-200-rallies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/30\/rba-hikes-asx-200-rallies\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA Hikes, ASX 200 Rallies"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The RBA hiked its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.6% today.<\/li>\n<li>Monthly CPI jumped to 4.0% in August, up from 3.5% in July.<\/li>\n<li>A further rate hike is expected at the next RBA meeting.<\/li>\n<li>The ASX 200 rallied to test resistance at 8800.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The RBA has grown more hawkish since its last meeting, spurred by a sharp rise in diesel and petrol prices that threaten to feed through into higher prices.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-30-rba-cashrate.png?resize=525%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"RBA Cash Rate Target\" width=\"525\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The average diesel retail price increased to 286.7 cents last week, with the wholesale price rising to 273.5 cents per liter.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-30-aus-diesel.png?resize=525%2C273&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian Diesel Price\" width=\"525\" height=\"273\" \/><\/p>\n<p>CPI jumped to 4.0% in August from 3.5% in July, while the trimmed mean held steady at 3.6%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-30-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=525%2C284&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian CPI &amp; Trimmed Mean CPI\" width=\"525\" height=\"284\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Tradables inflation (2.9%), reflecting prices for imported goods, rose sharply on higher fuel prices. Non-tradables (4.5%) reflect strong domestic inflation for services such as rent and education.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-30-aus-cpi-tradables.png?resize=525%2C284&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian CPI: Tradables &amp; Non-Tradables\" width=\"525\" height=\"284\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Annual inflation of 5.7 per cent for Housing reflected rising costs for both New dwellings and Electricity. New dwelling prices rose 5.4 per cent in the 12 months to August as builders passed on higher costs for materials and labour.<\/p>\n<p>Transport was the second largest contributor to annual inflation in August, rising by 5.6 per cent due to higher automotive fuel prices.<\/p>\n<p>On a monthly basis, Automotive fuel prices rose 14.8 per cent in August, compared to a rise of 7.5 per cent in July. This was driven by higher world oil prices and the unwinding of the remainder of the federal governments fuel excise relief measures in August. (ABS)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Nominal GDP slowed slightly to 5.3% for the June quarter.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-30-aus-ngdp.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian Nominal GDP Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Australian bond yields, at 4.95% for the 2-year and 5.25% for the 10-year, closely shadow nominal GDP growth, indicating the RBA is maintaining neutral monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-30-agb-yields.png?resize=525%2C343&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian Government Bond Yields\" width=\"525\" height=\"343\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, private credit is still growing at an annual rate of 8.4%, well above NGDP growth, suggesting that further tightening is necessary.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-30-aus-credit-broadmoney.png?resize=525%2C343&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australia: Credit and Broad Money Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"343\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis says &#8220;the bar for a November rate hike is very low&#8221; and she now expects a further hike to 4.85%.<\/p>\n<p>The ASX 200 shrugged off the rate hike, rallying to test resistance at 8800.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-30-xjo.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The cure for high prices is high prices. Credit growth will likely fall if the 2-year AGB yield rises above nominal GDP growth.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com\/2026-09-30-markets-economy.php\">Diesel shortages in the coming months<\/a> could do far more damage than a rate hike.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/price-indexes-and-inflation\/consumer-price-index-australia\/latest-release\">Monthly CPI<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/economy\/national-accounts\/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product\/latest-release\">Australian National Accounts<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Westpac: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westpaciq.com.au\/economics\/2026\/09\/rba-video-luci-29-september-2026\">RBA hikes with one more expected<\/a><\/li>\n<li>AIP: <a href=\"https:\/\/aip.com.au\/pricing\/weekly-diesel-prices-report-week-ending-27-september-2026\/\">Weekly Diesel Prices Report<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The RBA hiked its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.6% today. Monthly CPI jumped to 4.0% in August, up from 3.5% in July. A further rate hike is expected at the next RBA meeting. The ASX 200 rallied to test resistance at 8800. The RBA has grown more hawkish since &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/30\/rba-hikes-asx-200-rallies\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;RBA Hikes, ASX 200 Rallies&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,13],"tags":[4282,6380,7481,7147,2486,4055],"class_list":["post-66237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-inflation-economy","tag-agb-yields","tag-australian-cpi","tag-australian-diesel-price","tag-credit-and-broad-money-growth","tag-nominal-gdp-growth","tag-rba-cash-rate-target"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RBA Hikes, ASX 200 Rallies - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RBA Hikes, ASX 200 Rallies - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The RBA hiked its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.6% today. Monthly CPI jumped to 4.0% in August, up from 3.5% in July. A further rate hike is expected at the next RBA meeting. The ASX 200 rallied to test resistance at 8800. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-hel","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":65488,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/29\/soft-cpi-means-no-rate-hike\/","url_meta":{"origin":66237,"position":0},"title":"Soft CPI Means No Rate Hike","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 29, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Trimmed Mean CPI growth slowed to 0.3% in June, down from 0.4% in May. Annual Trimmed Mean CPI was flat at 3.6%, the same as in May. The RBA will likely hold the cash rate at 4.35% in August. Lower monthly CPI was partly due to federal government\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-29-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-29-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-29-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64289,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/29\/australian-bear-alert\/","url_meta":{"origin":66237,"position":1},"title":"Australian Bear Alert","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 29, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Headline CPI jumped by 1.1% in the month of March, lifting the annual increase to 4.6%. Australian business and consumer confidence are falling. Australia's headline consumer price index jumped by 1.1% in March 2026. Automotive fuel was the main contributor, rising 32.8 percent in March, the strongest monthly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian CPI - Monthly & Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-29-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-29-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-29-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63542,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/02\/04\/rba-admits-its-mistake\/","url_meta":{"origin":66237,"position":2},"title":"RBA Admits Its Mistake","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The consumer price index jumped to 3.8% for the 12 months to December 2025. The unemployment rate fell to a seasonally-adjusted 4.1%. The ASX 200 found support at 8800. The RBA increased its cash rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian CPI & Trimmed Mean CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-02-03-aus-cpi-tm.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43733,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/30\/australian-cpi-falls-but-no-rate-cuts-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":66237,"position":3},"title":"Australian CPI falls but no rate cuts yet","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 30, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The monthly measure of Australian CPI eased to 4.9% for the 12 months to July, below the less-volatile core CPI (5.8%) and trimmed mean (5.6%). The difference between CPI and core CPI mainly reflects a 7.6% fall in automotive fuel prices. A sharp 17.7% increase in diesel prices in August,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: CPI, Core CPI & Trimmed Mean","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-30-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-30-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-30-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-08-30-aus-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":65482,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/28\/will-the-rba-hike-rates-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":66237,"position":4},"title":"Will the RBA Hike Rates in August?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 28, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points RBA Governor Michelle Bullock buoyed markets with her lunchtime comments today. The ASX 200 is headed for another test of 9000. However, June Quarter CPI is due for release on Wednesday. Westpac projects that the Trimmed Mean CPI for the 12 months to June will rise to 3.7%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-28-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-28-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-07-28-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43203,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/27\/australia-june-cpi-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":66237,"position":5},"title":"Australia: June CPI falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Australia's quarterly CPI measure declined to 6.0% for the 12 months to June (up from 5.6% on monthly CPI in May). Trimmed mean inflation -- the RBA's favorite long-term measure -- fell to 5.9%, from 6.6% in March. Quarterly changes for both CPI and Trimmed Mean declined to 0.9% (3.6%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-27-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-27-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-27-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-27-aus-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66237","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66237"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66237\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66242,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66237\/revisions\/66242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}