{"id":66108,"date":"2026-09-24T10:28:43","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T10:28:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=66108"},"modified":"2026-09-24T11:36:30","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T11:36:30","slug":"something-has-to-break","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/24\/something-has-to-break\/","title":{"rendered":"Something Has to Break"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The S&amp;P Global US Composite flash PMI shot up to 58.4% for September.<\/li>\n<li>10-year Treasury yields jumped to 5.114%.<\/li>\n<li>We expect 10-year yields to climb higher, causing a correction in stocks.<\/li>\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 retreated, heading for a test of support between 7500 and 7600.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The S&amp;P Global US Composite flash PMI shot up to 58.4%, the fourth consecutive month of accelerating growth and the strongest expansion in private-sector activity since July 2021.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-23-spglobal-uscomposite-pmi.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P Global Composite PMI\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The move was echoed by a healthy rise in the European Union&#8217;s equivalent flash PMI to 53.1%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-23-spglobal-eucomposite-pmi.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P Global Composite PMI\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The surge in economic activity boosted market expectations of further Fed rate hikes, with the 2-year Treasury yield jumping to 4.876% compared to the current Fed funds target range of 3.75% &#8211; 4.00%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-23-2y.png?resize=525%2C337&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"2-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"337\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The 10-year yield broke through resistance at 5.0%, closing at 5.114%, the highest level in more than 20 years. We expect a retracement to test the new support level, but respect will likely confirm another advance. Our medium-term target is 6.0%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-23-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 retreated to 7700 and is headed for a test of support between 7500 and 7600. A breach would signal a correction to test primary support at 7300.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-23-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>The Outlook for Treasuries<\/h2>\n<p>The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is shrinking as in previous Fed rate-hiking cycles (red arrows below). A dip below zero typically precedes a recession. The dip below zero from 2022-2024 was an exception, caused by the unprecedented scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus during the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-23-10y--2y.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield minus 2-Year Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Atlanta Fed&#8217;s GDPNow model projects real GDP growth of 5.1% in the third quarter, a 3.6% increase from Q2.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-23-gdp-now.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Atlanta Fed GDPNow\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Even without an increase in the GDP deflator, driven by rising energy prices, we expect nominal GDP to jump from an annual rate of 6.6% in Q2 to more than 10.0% in Q3.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-23-ngdp-10y.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield &amp; Nominal GDP Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The strong divergence between nominal GDP and the 10-year Treasury yield would signal massive monetary stimulus, causing a sharp increase in inflation.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The Fed is trapped in an inflationary boom that will likely drive long-term yields much higher than 5.0%. Rising interest rates will increase the interest cost on the US Treasury&#8217;s $40 trillion debt, expanding the budget deficit above $2.0 trillion.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed is constrained by its swollen balance sheet and will likely resist further QE to suppress long-term interest rates and assist the US Treasury.<\/p>\n<p>Surging economic activity, compounded by crude oil and diesel supply shortages, is also expected to drive a sharp increase in inflation, adding to the Fed&#8217;s challenges.<\/p>\n<p>Something has to break, and we are adopting a highly defensive posture, heavily overweight in Gold, short-term financial instruments, and defensive stocks with strong pricing power and stable income streams.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St. Louis: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/US2Y\">2-Year Treasury Yield<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Trading Economics: <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/composite-pmi\">S&amp;P Global US &amp; EU Flash Composite PMI<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The S&amp;P Global US Composite flash PMI shot up to 58.4% for September. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 5.114%. We expect 10-year yields to climb higher, causing a correction in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 retreated, heading for a test of support between 7500 and 7600. The S&amp;P Global US Composite flash PMI shot &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/24\/something-has-to-break\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Something Has to Break&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,45,3761,13,34],"tags":[7466,69,4808,6079,4306,7467,2485,3010,6948],"class_list":["post-66108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-deficits","category-gdp-and-activity","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-minus-2-year-treasury-yield-differential","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-2-year-treasury-yield","tag-atlanta-fed-gdpnow","tag-fed-qe","tag-inflationary-boom","tag-nominal-gdp","tag-sp-500","tag-sp-global-composite-pmi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Something Has to Break - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Something Has to Break - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The S&amp;P Global US Composite flash PMI shot up to 58.4% for September. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 5.114%. We expect 10-year yields to climb higher, causing a correction in stocks. The S&amp;P 500 retreated, heading for a test of support between 7500 and 7600. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-hcg","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":36699,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/24\/fed-rate-hikes-start-to-bite\/","url_meta":{"origin":66108,"position":0},"title":"Fed rate hikes start to bite","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 24, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 reversed below former primary support at 4200, warning of another test of 3650. Momentum peaking at zero (red arrows) suggests a strong down-trend. Breach of 3650 would offer a target of 3000. S&P Flash US Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropped to 45 in August, from 47.7\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":65530,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/02\/4-key-takeaways-from-the-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":66108,"position":1},"title":"4 Key Takeaways for the Week","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Long-term Treasury yields climbed after the Fed kept rates unchanged. The Japanese Yen is weakening as the Bank of Japan slow walks rate hikes. Gold absorbs selling pressure as long-term rates rise. China's economy is slowing. Treasury Market The bond market has been anticipating a rate hike. This\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"2-Year Treasury Yield & Fed Funds Target (Upper Limit)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-01-2y-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-01-2y-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-01-2y-ffr.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":65802,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/05\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":66108,"position":2},"title":"When Good News is Bad News","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 5, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The BLS reports that the labor market gained 162,000 jobs in August. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.41% and the\u00a0S&P 500 fell by 0.4% to 7718.6. The US is running the economy hot in the hope this will fix its $40T debt problem. When good news is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-04-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-04-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-04-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58057,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/03\/reaction-to-iran-israel-tensions-still-muted\/","url_meta":{"origin":66108,"position":3},"title":"Reaction to Iran-Israel tensions still muted","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks are retracing to test support, but financial market conditions remain accommodative, and another large-cap rally is likely. Treasuries, Gold, and the Dollar are all likely to rise as tensions escalate in the Middle East. Stocks The S&P 500 continues to test support between 5670 and 5700, but Trend Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Iran Attacks Israel","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-02-israel-598x491.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-02-israel-598x491.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-02-israel-598x491.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":65553,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/05\/ism-upsurge-in-us-activity\/","url_meta":{"origin":66108,"position":4},"title":"ISM Signals Upsurge in US Activity","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 5, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The ISM Manufacturing PMI for July signals a healthy expansion in the manufacturing sector. The S&P 500 broke resistance at 7600, offering a target of 8000. 10-Year Treasury yields softened as crude oil prices fell on talk of a new peace deal. Gold rallied, but don't get your\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ISM Manufacturing PMI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-04-ims-mnfg-pmi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-04-ims-mnfg-pmi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-04-ims-mnfg-pmi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62309,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/23\/dow-signals-bull-market-as-powell-lifts-hope-for-rate-cuts\/","url_meta":{"origin":66108,"position":5},"title":"Dow bull market as Powell raises hope for rate cuts","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 23, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole address opens the door for a September rate cut The Dow reached a new high above 45K, confirming the S&P 500 bull market signal Treasury yields and the dollar weaken, boosting the outlook for gold Fed Chair Powell's address at Jackson Hole identified\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-22-tnx2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-22-tnx2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-22-tnx2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66108"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66108\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66116,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66108\/revisions\/66116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}